The Golden Era of Boston Sports

Tim Thomas Snubs Obama

2012-01-24T10:57:00.000-08:00

I asked my mom for a Tim Thomas Bruins t-shirt for my Christmas present. I wore it yesterday and didn't know about this until today.

“I believe the Federal government has grown out of control, threatening the Rights, Liberties, and Property of the People.

“This is being done at the Executive, Legislative, and Judicial level. This is in direct opposition to the Constitution and the Founding Fathers vision for the Federal government.

“Because I believe this, today I exercised my right as a Free Citizen, and did not visit the White House. This was not about politics or party, as in my opinion both parties are responsible for the situation we are in as a country. This was about a choice I had to make as an INDIVIDUAL.

“This is the only public statement I will be making on this topic. TT”

- Tim Thomas, Bruins Goalie and 2011 Stanley Cup MVP on refusing to meet Barack Obama with his teammates.

Moneyball review

2011-10-17T06:20:00.000-07:00

This is an "oddball" movie (no pun intended) in that it is based on a true story. However, because Billy Beane has created much of his own legend, it might even be hard to know what is true. It's hard to know how much to commit to when watching it. One of the last scenes in the movie has Beane being offered a ridiculous amount of money from the Boston Red Sox owner John Henry to be the new GM. He turned it down. That much is true. The irony in Boston is that the Kraft family and John Henry's group used this philosophy to build championship teams. The Red Sox later hired Bill James, the father of Sabermetrics, as a consultant and built a championship team.

Yesterday, Bill Belichek and Tom Brady just surpassed Shula and Moreno as the winningest coach-QB combo in history. That's a little of what Moneyball is about. A team has less to do with individual players and coaches as wins. You get wins from runs (or points in football) -- or keeping points from happening.

I know almost nothing about the fine details of football, but I saw in 2001 why the Patriots could beat supposedly better teams on the way to a Superbowl. Montana had Jerry Rice. Manning had Marvin Harrison. Yes, Brady went to the Superbowl throwing most of his passes to Troy Brown. Troy Brown? Bill Belichick was 42-58 as a head coach before Brady. On paper it makes no sense. The reason why they won in 2001/2002 is that they eeked out enough extra points from their special teams to win those games. But "on paper" those are the type of statistics that don't usually show up. A lot has to do with the combination of statistics with certain players on the field (and coaches) rather than individual statistics. Most of the time, the best coach is simply the guy who sticks to the winning formula long enough.

What Billy Beane did with baseball was to ignore all the usual statistics. He popularized the idea of OPS (the first time I saw that I said, What the heck is that?) -- on base plus slugging percentage. He realized that in a 162 game season, it matters more how a whole team plays rather than three or four superstars. He would substitute the average OPS of three players over a whole season to replace the OPS of one superstar. He would trade players who were popular with the fans who had high numbers in every category, but who did not walk a lot. He taught that outs were bad, steals were bad, sacrifices of any type (because they resulted in outs) were bad. He cut across the grain of a century of conventional wisdom. He took a bottom tier team to the post season and broke a record with 20 consecutive wins in 2002.

This is also exactly the reason the Red Sox and Patriots won five World Championships in the last ten years. Neither team has ever been the best team on paper (with the exception of the 2007 Pats of course) for the past ten years, but the experts often look at the wrong statistics.

What's so great about baseball? A 5-4-3 Triple Play.

2011-08-17T08:55:00.000-07:00

In all of Red Sox history spanning over 100 years, this was the first "round the horn triple play" ever turned by the club. In the 20th century, only 60 of this variety - third to second to first - have been completed. It is considered one of the most difficult feats in major league sports.

In a previous post, I wrote that the "straight steal of home," which was accomplished by Jacoby Ellsbury in 2009 against the Yankees, was one of the rarest feats in baseball, but it turns out that the round the horn triple play is even more rare.

Seven World Championships in 10 years!

2011-06-18T10:32:00.000-07:00

Bruins 2011

Celtics 2008

Red Sox 2007

Patriots 2005

Red Sox 2004

Patriots 2004

Patriots 2002

Now what this means is that there is still time for EIGHT Championship teams in a decade.

Red Sox 2011?

Here's an amazing thought. In 2001, no Boston sports team had won a championship since the 1986 Celtics -- a 15 year drought!

In 2001, the Pats had never won a championship, the Celtics hadn't won since 1986, the Bruins since 1972 and the Red Sox since 1918.

Now the Patriots are the team with the longest drought. They haven't won a championship in six years. Amazing! It's changed the psyche of the Boston sports fan.

Patriots - Dolphins DirecTV commercial

2010-08-09T16:22:00.000-07:00

I laugh every time I see this. This pretty much nails New England sports fans. Someone on YouTube pointed out that this couldn't work with the Jets because there would be vandalism charges and jail time.

Manny's Redemption?

2010-06-21T13:52:00.000-07:00

Manny Ramirez returned to Fenway Park for the first time in almost two years this past weekend. He received a mixed reaction by Boston fans who clearly have mixed feelings about Manny Being Manny. I was surprised to see that he returned to more boos than cheers. I say it's time to forgive Manny and receive him as one of the four great Hall of Fame left fielders that include Williams, Yaz and Rice who have played at Fenway.

The following appeared today in the Boston Globe:

Ramirez told Red Sox Spanish Beisbol Network play-by-play announcer Uri Berenguer Saturday that he regretted his transgressions in Boston. “There’s no reason I should have behaved that way in Boston,’’ Ramirez told Berenguer in a 45-minute private conversation in Spanish.

Berenguer said that Ramirez no longer speaks of retirement, and said that the length of his career will be determined by a higher power. Berenguer said Ramirez has found God, reads the Bible on a daily basis, and quoted scriptures constantly during their conversation.

Ramirez went 5 for 12 in the series, including two hits in each of the last two games, with a home run and a stolen base.

It's fun to be a Boston sports fan in May!

2010-05-19T13:23:00.000-07:00

Up until last week, I was bemused by the fact that I could watch the Bruins in playoff hockey, the Celtics in playoff basketball and the Red Sox by flipping back and forth between channels during commercials. Or I'd go to a sports restaurant and watch all three at once.

What other city has that?

In case you are wondering: None. That's who. Only in Boston.

It's fun to be a fan in the Golden Era of Boston Sports!

And maddening ...

The Bruins

First, a word about the "great collapse." No one expected the Bruins to go anywhere this year. So when they knocked off the Sabres and went up by three games to none while the eighth seeded Canadiens were waiting in the wings, everyone began expecting the Stanley Cup to come back to Boston for the first time in almost 38 years. I distinctly remember the morning at the bus stop in 1972 when every kid in Framingham wore a Bruins cap and talked about Bobby Orr's and tried to act out his game winning goal flying through the air.

But 2010 was not to be. It was the fourth greatest collapse in postseason history by any professional team. To put it in perspective, this playoff run was made by a woefully inconsistent, streaky team that got as far as they did because they played as well as they could in three playoff series, but then lost four in a row just like they did many times in the regular season. It is maddening, but perfectly believable. On the bright side, they'll be back in the playoffs next year and the year after.

As Forrest Gump would say: "And that's all I have to say about that!"

Celtics

Ten down, six more wins to go!

In a recent blog post, I asked, Can the Celtics flip the switch? I argued that they could still beat any team any time they are all healthy. They can go in a moment from being a sometimes-good-sometimes-mediocre team that blows big leads late in games, to being the Celtics that have won 17 World Championships.

In the postseason, they've become the creaky old veteran team that makes every young NBA star look bad. What is beautiful about this Celtics team is that they are so old school. They play team basketball. They have the "Big Four" in Allen, Garnett, Pierce, Rondo and the deepest supporting cast. Every other team they have faced has one superstar that they can neutralize. They made the best player in the NBA, Lebron "King" James, look so awful he actually quit trying in game six of the quarter finals. They are in the process of making Dwight "Superman" Howard look even worse. Then they can beat you offensively with four different players -- one per quarter.

I'll go further out on a limb with a prediction. The Celtics are going to sweep the Magic by taking the next two games in Boston and arrive with fresh legs to play over-rated west coast team. They are now 62.5 percent of the way to their 18th banner. Then they have Rajon Rondo coming on strong. The Celtics will be playoff bound for years to come.

Red Sox

As Mark Twain would say, "The rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated."
40 games into the season, the Sox have won 20 games and lost 20 games.

"Everyone knows that the season is ovah!"

Right?

Not so fast. What has done in the Red Sox so far is inconsistent pitching and numerous games lost by one or two runs. The prognosis at the beginning of the year was that they had the best pitching staff in baseball -- a fearsome starting line-up with three aces and three more quality starters. They had Gold Gloves in half their defensive positions. On paper, they were supposed to be the best defensive team in recent history. The big concern was an aging offense in Ortiz, Varitek, and Lowell with too few younger sluggers in the starting line-up.

Ironically, the pitching and defense has been bumpy to say the least. But this will right itself. Still people are saying that this team is too far behind to gain any ground on the Rays and the Yankees, who have played stellar baseball in the first month and a half.

But hold the phone!

As of today these are the offensive statistics for the Red Sox:

First in the Majors in Runs Scored (210)
First in the Majors in Hits (378)
Second in the Majors in Home Runs (55)
Second in the Majors in Total Bases (636)
Third in the Majors in Slugging Percentage (.454 SLG)
Third in the Majors in On Base plus Slugging (.804 OPS)

This is without two of the key members of their starting line-up, Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury, who have been out for almost all of the season so far, but will both be back by next week. When the starting pitching clicks into place, the Red Sox will go on a tear that could last most of the season. Six games behind in the Wild Card standings is nothing at this point in the season. I won't guarantee they will win the division. But I predict the Red Sox will be in first place either in the division or the Wild Card at some point before September.

Let me pick a random date: How about July 23rd? That's day I have right field box seats at Fenway Park. It will be vs. the Detroit Tigers -- Johnny Damon's triumphant return from disgrace -- the first player since Babe Ruth to win World Series rings with New York and Boston! That is a good omen if there ever was one. I'll write a blog entry on July 24th and report on where they are at in the standings.

Patriots

Hey, it's May! If you are thinking about football already you are not from Boston.

The Big Bad Bruins are back!

2010-05-03T12:25:00.000-07:00

The Bruins and the Flyers are facing each other in the playoffs for the first time since 1978!

If you lived in New England in the 1970s, you know the Bruins' archrivals were the Canadiens and the Flyers. Montreal were the skaters and Boston and Philly were the fighters. Bruins and Canadiens fans were known for their knowledge of the game and Flyers fans were not. They used to boo the Canadian national anthem in Philadelphia. Boston radio sportscaster, Johnny Most, used to say, "They hate us because they have to live there and we don't."

Most also once said on the air, "Mrs. Abdul-Jabbah, Ya son is a cowahd!" If you don't know who Johnny Most was, you still might know his famous holler during the 1965 Celtics championship game, "Havlicek stole the ball!"

But I digress.

The point is that the Bruins met the Flyers in the playoffs four times from 1974 to 1978 and split the series match-ups 2-2.

I was at game one of the Stanley Cup semi-finals in 1978 with my friend Doug. We were high school sophomores and had to get the "T" from Riverside to North Station. My mother gave us season ticket seats that strangely no one at her work place wanted. We sat in the loges, two rows of balcony seats that hung out over the ice. (This is where Red Auerbach used to sit during Celtics games.) Less than a minute into the game, all the Bruins and Flyers players' gloves were on the ice and they were going at it. I remember my friend screaming, "This is EXCELLENT!" Yes, it was playoff hockey in the Boston Garden. This was the Boston team most likely to go all the way in 1978.

The only downside was that game one went into overtime and we ran the risk of missing the last train back to Riverside if we missed it. We hadn't left the building when the Bruins scored a goal in the first few minutes of overtime to win it. I remember Doug jumping up and down in the "tunnel" as we heard it on the transistor radio I was carrying as we also heard the crowd erupt inside. The Bruins won the series 4-3 and went on to lose in the Stanley Cup finals.

This year, the first game of the Bruins-Flyers series was won by the Bruins once again in the first few minutes of overtime. It was deja vu all over again. I was watching the game and got up for a second and missed it. That's what makes hockey "the fastest game on ice." If you blink for a micro-second, you can miss the outcome of the game.

The real irony though is that if you asked Boston fans a few weeks ago which team had the best chance of next winning a world championship, they would have been divided between the other three teams. Right now, it's the Bruins who look the best.

Below: Bruins players attack a harrassing fan in Philadelphia in the 1970s.

Can the Celtics flip the switch?

2010-04-19T06:43:00.000-07:00

One down, fifteen to go!

The Celtics won the 2007/2008 NBA Championship as the team with the best record and home court advantage throughout the playoffs. In the first two rounds, they looked like a team playing on cruise control. They sauntered through the playoffs with the presumption of the divine right of kings. The Celtics took four of of seven against the Atlanta and Cleveland by winning every game at home and losing every game on the road. It was frustrating to watch the 2008 Celts struggle against inferior teams after they had amassed 66 wins in the regular season. But then they "flipped the switch" against Detroit and L.A. showing they were the best in the NBA because they were the best defensive team.

The last two years saw the Celtics playing much of the season with injuries to the "big three" and a depleted bench. Finally, the whole team is healthy and the bench is deeper than it has been since June 2008. The team still showed gross inconsistency in the home stretch of the "preseason" -- as we are now once again accustomed to think of the prelude to NBA playoffs in Boston. The team has been insisting that they were running on cruise control, protecting the health of their starters for the playoff run. During that time, it has been frustrating to watch them blow big leads in the fourth quarter running out of steam after showing flashes of brilliance and dominance early in games.

Can they flip the switch again? Can a team with tired old legs turn on the defensive prowess they showed in 2007/2008 and make a run all the way to the finals? The regular season showed that Boston is capable on any day of being the better team against any opponent either at home or on the road. But can they do it for 16 wins in the playoffs?

If game one against the Heat was any indication, then we see in the fiery indignation of Kevin Garnett something like the transformation of Prince Hal into King Henry V:

O for a Muse of fire, that would ascend
The brightest heaven of invention,
A kingdom for a stage, princes to act
And monarchs to behold the swelling scene!

Then should the warlike Harry, like himself,
Assume the port of Mars and at his heels,
Leash'd in like hounds, should famine, sword and fire
Crouch for employment. - Henry V. Act 1. Scene 1.

Here's the key. The Celtics need to finish off the Heat in four or five games and enable their starters to rest for a few days. Then as the fourth seed, they will find themselves squared off against the best team in the NBA, the Cleveland Cavaliers, in the second round. It's simple matter of getting past the second round. Then they have an even shot at an 18th banner. (The Celtics don't hang anything but World Championship banners in the Garden.)

Kevin Garnett is out tonight with a suspension. If the Celtics can win game two at home, having a rested Garnett for the next two games in Miami will be a plus. This is it. With the Bruins not likely to go too far in their playoff run, it's the best chance for another world championship in Boston.

At least until October, that is.

Everything You Need to Know About Opening Day - Steve Tyler and Neil Diamond.

2010-04-05T19:36:00.000-07:00

Here is everything you need to know about opening day.

Steve Tyler sang "God Bless America" in the middle of the seventh inning.

Almost as good, Neil Diamond and the sell-out crowd sang "Sweet Caroline" in the middle of the eighth.

And even better, the Red Sox came overcame a four run deficit to beat the Yankees 9 to 7.

Good times never seemed so good. There is nothing better in sports than being part of Red Sox Nation!

Quote of the Month: Johnny Damon

2010-03-23T06:08:00.000-07:00

“There aren’t too many guys with rings from each team.’’

"Here he is, the one, the only ... Hey! Wait a minute! That's me!" - Groucho Marx

2010-03-20T22:32:00.000-07:00

I haven't really bothered too much with unrelated trivia so far, but here it is. There is a new independent film out that actually looks quite brilliant. It's a movie about a subject matter that transcends the subject matter. Granted it's been done before. For instance, I'm reminded of a friend of mine who has made a documentary about JAWS fans. He can't sell it because he'd either need to buy the licensing to all the JAWS clips he features in the film -- or he has to sell it to the studio for less than what he put into it. I've often joked that I ought to make "THE MAKING OF The Shark Is Still Working." And then sell that to JAWS fans instead.

I read JAWS as a kid and saw the movie and was afraid to swim in the ocean for a whole summer. I was even afraid to swim in Lake Winnipesaukee (since it's less than 200 miles from Martha's Vineyard). I am not a JAWS fanatic. I don't think it's one of the greatest movies of all time. But if you've ever been a fan of anything and you like JAWS, then you can identify with this film about the fans of JAWS. I'd like to one day actually buy it and watch it.

They interviewed Peter Benchley, Stephen Spielberg and Richard Dreyfuss. They actually got Roy Scheider to narrate it and got the original trailer voice to narrate their trailer! And now they can't release it! I mean, c'mon!

What could be more frustrating? How about making a movie about a Red Sox fan who loves the Red Sox more than his fiancée and can't get married until he forsakes the hope of Red Sox ever winning the World Series. He lives in the North End, by the way, a few blocks from The Boston Worship Center, a church I attended twice a week for three years. And he works as a public school teacher. The movie is actually based on a British film by the same name about a teacher who loves the soccer team Arsenal. Same plot different location. The details don't matter. It's a story within a story. It's transcendent and archetypal.

Then, just as they were about to release the movie, the Red Sox won the World Series! Then they had to reshoot the whole ending!

If you ever watched in shock and awe as Cher or Marisa Tomei stood at the podium at the Oscars with the award for best actress (for a romantic comedy no less!) you realize what a travesty it is that the Farrelly Brothers never won the Oscar for Fever Pitch. They should have had a special category for "cosmic irony" or something like that just for them.

You don't have to be a Red Sox fan to appreciate the theme of the film. You just have to at one time have had an obsession about something not human -- something you love that can never love you back that always breaks your heart. In the end, when you let go of false hope and you realize that there are more important things in life, hope springs eternal and all your wildest dreams come true.

Here's the ending of the British version:

Not taking anything away from Arsenal fans, but there is nothing like a game at Fenway. Even though there are no YouTube versions of the "Special Red Sox Extended Version" of the American film, you can get a little taste of what Fenway is like by watching this:

Then comes Do It Again - a documentary by Boston Globe Reporter about making a documentary (a story within a story within a story) about his attempt to get the rock group The Kinks back together. It has all the same elements of the above and more. The guy's name is Geoff Edgers. Like the character in Fever Pitch, he's my alter ego.

To fully get the following review of his film, first you have to watch this YouTube video.

It's really expensive to make a film -- even an Indie film -- and Edgers uses Kinks songs that have licensing fees. So Geoff Edgers is doing what my JAWS fanatic friend is doing. He's shopping the film around at film festivals and hoping to create enough of a buzz to have it distributed and make some money. Or at least break even. He's been nice enough to correspond with me via email. This is what I wrote to him:

Do you do the same thing I do every morning?

Come into work, sit down at my desk with a cup of black coffee, check email, check the Globe sports page, check Dave Emlen's Unofficial Kinks site hoping for an announcement of a concert I can see, a link to a new video or interview ... or better ... a REUNION ANNOUNCEMENT!

I had tickets to see Dave Davies at the Bull Run in Shirley, I was so sure that this was the precursor, the trial run.

I live in Florida now (I grew up in Framingham and saw the Kinks in concert 4 years in a row when I was in college) so I had airfare from Tampa to Manchester NH. Even after I heard the concert was canceled (postponed?) the airfare reticketing fee was so expensive ($150) that I made the trip anyway. I got to visit family, but it was an empty trip into the cold with a long layover through Cleveland on the return.

Thanks for letting me vent. Very few other people would understand.

What do I have to do to see your film?

- Jay Rogers

Hey Jay... Great message. And I was going to that show, except I live in Boston so it wasn't as financially painful. As for seeing our film, here's the deal... I've applied to a couple of Florida Film Festivals. If we get in, we could be in Palm Springs and Sarasota as early as April. If we don't, we could be waiting for Fort. Lauderdale in Oct. Of course, maybe you want to hit the road to Cleveland (March 26/27), North Carolina, Atlanta, Nashville or DC (all in April.) We also play Bermuda May 20.

I worked at the Middlesex News back in the '90s so maybe you actually got the paper I was on back then.

Best, Geoff

Reuniting the Kinks or one man's mid-life crisis in celluloid

Review by– Sam Strangeways

Quest: Geoff Edgers (right) in "Do It Again."

Do It Again, directed by Robert Patton-Spruill

Tonight at the Speciality Cinema at 9.15 p.m. and Monday at 3.45 p.m.

Geoff Edgers is a reporter on the Boston Globe whose 40th birthday is fast approaching and who wants to do something big and vital before he truly hits middle age.

He sets himself what anyone with a reasonable knowledge of 1960s British rock music would probably describe as Mission Impossible: getting the original members of The Kinks back together.

The bad blood between Ray Davies and his brother Dave which finally caused the band to implode in the early 1990s is legendary.

But Edgers, a huge fan who thinks The Kinks are underrated, is convinced he can pull it off.

The idea is a neat device for a documentary which is really about a man reluctantly waving goodbye to his youth and trying to fulfil at least some of his own musical ambitions.

Edgers is not entirely likeable there's a touch of the arrogant waster about him but that only adds to the enjoyment of the film.

His wife is a perfect foil to this and we see her reminding him about the bills they have to pay before he sets off on his adventure and describing his obsession with the elder Davies brother with weary resignation.

Thanks to his newspaper credentials, Edgers manages to set up interviews with various famous fans of The Kinks. Sting and REM's Peter Buck probably the best known among them.

He takes his guitar to each meeting and manages to persuade (almost all) the musicians to play a favourite Kinks song with him. There is something a little cringeworthy about this, but also something rather sweet.

Edgers was in a local band in Boston in his younger days and he can certainly strum and sing decently.

Kinks fans will really enjoy watching these impromptu covers that director Robert Patton-Spruill captured on film as well as seeing the expressions of the artists when asked to take part.

As the film progresses, I found myself warming to Edgers. OK, so he doesn't want to change the world and his quest is a bit daft, but if successful it would bring a lot of pleasure to a lot of people.

There is a really touching interview with Dave Davies, whom he tracks down in England and who has been ill recently.

He talks about his fractured relationship with his brother but won't articulate in front of the cameras what Ray would have to say to him there is clearly something he could say to bring the original band back together.

The fact that he is nowhere to be seen at a Kinks convention in London, where Ray takes to the stage with a different incarnation of the group, is really sad.

Before Edgers sets off for the UK, his young daughter tells him he must buy her a lobster dinner if he fails in his challenge.

You'll have to see the movie to find out if The Kinks Do It Again as in their 1985 song or if she gets her meal.

Red Sox Yankees rivalry heats up over an Irish tenor

2010-03-16T10:57:00.000-07:00

It turns out that Irish tenor, Ronan Tynan, is not an anti-Semite, even though, much to the chagrin of Yankee fans, he was banished from Yankee Stadium due to a misunderstood remark. He's not even a "anti-dentite" for crying out loud!

To add insult to irony, he'll sing "God Bless America" in Fenway on opening day when the arrogant ones in pinstripes are in town. Just to add just a little tarnish to that 27th trophy! No doubt he'll get a ten minute standing ovation. The one thing I actually liked about Yankee Stadium ("the house that Hank built") is now coming to Boston just in time for St. Paddy's Day!

Here's a story almost too odd to be believed.

Scorned by New York, tenor regains a voice

Super Bowl thoughts: The most watched rock band performance ever!

2010-02-09T17:45:00.000-08:00

THE WHO at the SUPERBOWL was the most watched performance by a rock band in history!

I told myself that I would not write about Super Bowl XLIV since it had nothing to do with Boston sports, but I am now forced to make an exception. This one was very special on three levels.

1. Peyton Manning is not better than Tom Brady after all!

Of course, one could argue that Manning's numbers for the decade are better than Brady's. However, three Super Bowl rings vs. one ring speak louder than statistics. We can't say Brady is the best quarterback of the decade, but now we can't say that Manning holds that title outright. This loss was huge for Indianapolis. Clear favorites, they lost to a team that took repeated win-or-lose gambles that paid off handsomely. Somewhere Bill Belichek is smiling. Or maybe not. The Saints' win means that the Colts -- even if you count the Baltimore years -- have only two Super Bowl championships to their name. Having won three would have put them in striking distance of the all time great NFL Dynasties and certainly a close second to the Patriots' "Dynasty of the New Millennium." Simply put, it was one of the most exciting, unusual Super Bowl games ever played and the win was huge for Pats fans.

2. The commericals were better and funnier.

I have to admit, I usually don't watch Super Bowl games from beginning to end. When I do watch, it is because I care about the teams involved, especially the New England Patriots. It's a well-known fact that most Super Bowl games are predictable and boring. I find it obnoxious when people say that the best part of watching the big game is the commercials. Why watch at all then? When I am compelled to watch, I am usually affronted by the amount of sleaze that corporate America pours upon us. Whether it's a dozen-and-a-half Viagra commercials or constant innuendo directed at what is supposed to be a family audience, I do not find the commercials the most enjoyable part of watching the Super Bowl.

This slew of commercials wasn't that bad, however, and one had a message that is near to my heart -- one that was hyped by lots of pre-game controversy -- more so than any other Super Bowl ad in history.

Just a bit of background to this. As a pro-life activist, I get NARAL's weekly email bomb signed by Nancy Keenan. (My reason for subscribing is the famous adage by General Douglas MacArthur, "Know your enemy.") This week's witch screed from NARAL was entitled: "Throw a Penalty Flag Against CBS!" -- which is all about Tim Tebow's mom's "anti-abortion" commercial (that would not be noticed as being an "anti-abortion" commercial if it hadn't been framed as such by Focus on the Family). It's such a neutral, feel-good, pro-family ad that even the Orlando Sentinel opined on Monday: "Now we can ask the question — what was all the fuss about?"

The commerical, I was surprise to find, turned out to be tremendously understated and downright uncontroversial. Judge for yourself:

Here is another version:

NARAL (a friend of mine calls them "SNARL!") calls on all pro-aborts to "focus" their anger by "throwing a penalty flag on CBS." Not to get too excited about this though, NARAL's fund raising letter writers live in an alternate reality where the Tebow commerical is offensive, "anti-choice politicians outnumber pro-choice lawmakers in Congress," and one-in-four teenage girls has a sexually transmitted disease. (I won't post a direct link to NARAL's website, but you can follow the links from the phrases above.) Like the Tebow ad, the controversy will serve us well because it shows how extreme and out-of-touch these pro-aborts really are -- even among people who consider themselves "pro-choice." Also, you have to like the way they tie the Focus on the Family slogan to Personhood.

3. Super Bowl XLIV was the most watched event in human history!

NEWS ITEM: "CBS' coverage of Super Bowl XLIV was the most-watched program in an American television history, averaging 106.48 million viewers."

By extension, this means that the half-time show, featuring my favorite band of all time, The Who, was the most watched performance by a rock group in history. And that is the main reason why I succumbed to the cliché and downed Cheetos and beverages for 90 minutes waiting for the grand moment -- The Half Time Show! -- a 12-minute medley of five abbreviated Who songs. Even if you don't like The Who, the spectacle of a 50-yard long circular stage, that dwarfed the band and pulsated light, lasers and pyrotechnics, stole the show.

If you click on the YouTube videos above, you can read the comments, which are of course mixed. I wouldn't have it any other way. It was the "'Orrible 'oo" in all their glory! Are 100 million people all going to like the Who? I hope not! As Mike Myers and Dana Carvey pointed out in Wayne's World:

Garth Algar: Uh, Wayne?
Wayne Campbell: Yeah?
Garth Algar: Do you ever get the feeling Benjamin's just using us?
Wayne Campbell: Good call. It's like he wants us to be liked by everyone. I mean Led Zeppelin didn't write tunes everybody liked. They left that to the Bee Gees.

Just consider that the late, great Keith Moon and John Entwistle actually invented Led Zeppelin and you'll get the idea. I find it humorous that the most common complaint is that they were "too old" (ironic on several levels that I'll leave to true Who fans to understand) and that "Roger has lost the top end of his register."

What? Roger Daltrey has a "top end"? Since when? Have these people ever listened to a Who concert before? If not, go and buy or download Live at Leeds, Live at the Isle of Wight or watch the great rockumentary, The Kids Are Alright. This will forever dispel the notion that Daltrey ever had anything resembling a strong singing voice when performing live. True, the band managed to pull off some nice moments with Pete Townshend and John Entwistle providing the high harmonies in a controlled studio setting. It yielded them some sounding nice pop songs, yet with an edge. But this isn't the point of the band live. Not at all! Not even the watered-down latter-day version without their best drummer and bass player, Moon and Entwistle.

In Daltrey's own words circa 1978:

Our main ambition right now is to get back on the road with the horrible Who, the worst rock n' roll group in the world ... You couldn't pick four more horrible geezers to make the worst sound you've ever heard in your life.

And in the end, they gave us the most watched rock band performance of all time.

Not to be taken away.

Should CBS air the Tim Tebow Superbowl commercial?

2010-01-30T13:56:00.000-08:00

This has nothing to do with Boston sports except for the fact that two Irishmen from the Boston Globe, Mike Ryan and Joe Sullivan, get the answer to the question exactly right. Another Globe story from today asks the question: "Could Tebow be a Patriot?"

Will Boston Sports Fans Determine Outcome of Senate Race?

2010-01-19T07:13:00.000-08:00

Today's elections results may forever become known as "the slapshot heard 'round the world."

The Coakley/Brown race in Massachusetts has been heralded as the most important U.S. Senate election in recent history. The future of government run health care may hang on whether the Republicans can gain another seat that will break the Democrats' filibuster-proof super majority.

Scott Brown is not likely to become a conservative dream candidate, since he has backed a number of liberal issues in the past. But he'll instantly become one of the most well-known Senators if he wins, having the ability to work with the voting block of 41 Republicans to block Obama's far left-leaning agenda. He will likely give the Republican rebuttal to the State of the Union Address next week.

Even more notable is the role that Boston sports has played in this election. While Brown went hard after moderate, working class independents who dominate Massachusetts voters, Martha Coakley chose to dismiss her opponent's chances assuming the election was a lock once she won the Democratic primary.

Coakley bristled at the idea. Should she actually be seen "standing outside Fenway Park? In the cold? Shaking hands" of hockey fans at the annual outdoor Winter Classic Bruins-Flyers game? Then she brought in John Kerry, Bill Clinton and even Barack Obama to campaign for her. Obama promptly insulted Brown's pick-up truck that is featured in a campaign commercial designed to appeal to the working class independents.

Then, in the greatest gaffe in Massachusetts' politics since a helmuted Mike Dukakis drove a tank, Coakley criticized Scott Brown for bringing in former New York Major Rudolph Giuliani to campaign, since Rudy is, of course, "a Yankee fan."

But what about Curt Schilling's support? He's "another Yankee fan!" according to Coakley. That brought on a comical spat between Schilling and Coakley. Later, Boston College and Patriots football great Doug Flutie appeared at rallies with Schilling to show his support for Brown.

If Coakley loses, people will remember that her poll numbers nose-dived after she stupidly insulted followers of the Bruins, Red Sox and probably got Doug Flutie fans riled in the mix.

These are the "smahtest fans in America" after all. The very fact that Coakley would insult their intelligence speaks volumes about her competency to hold a Senate seat. Let's see if she can snipe at Celtics fans in the waning hours of her campaign.

Martha Coakley calls Curt Shilling a "Yankee fan" - Curt responds

2010-01-16T07:29:00.000-08:00

"I've been called a lot of things...but never, I mean never, could anyone make the mistake of calling me a Yankee fan. Well, check that, if you didn't know what the hell is going on in your own state maybe you could."

- Curt Schilling

This was after Martha Coakley, Massachusetts Democrat senatorial candidate derided Rudolph Giuliani's campaign for her rival, Scott Brown, by calling Rudy a "Yankee fan." When asked a about Curt Schilling's support for Brown, she responded that he was a Yankee fan too. She later said it was a joke. As they say in Mass: "Yeah, right."

Patriots 2009 Regular Season Round-up: "Why not us?"

2010-01-07T07:22:00.000-08:00

The Patriots were statistically the best team in the AFC in the 2009 regular season.

Forget about the win / loss ratio. If we look at the Points-For / Points-Against ratio, the Pats narrowly beat out the Jets and Ravens as the best team in the AFC playoffs. The numbers bear this out.

AFC Playoff Teams / PF / PA / Ratio

New England Patriots / 427 / 285 / 1.4982

Baltimore Ravens / 391 / 261 / 1.4981

New York Jets / 348 / 236 / 1.47

San Diego Chargers / 454 / 320 / 1.42

Indianapolis Colts / 416 / 307 / 1.36

Cincinnati Bengals / 305 / 291 / 1.05

The Pats were the fifth best defensive team in the NFL

I had this conversation on the plane to Boston on Christmas day with two other Pats fans. I held out that the bottom line in determining the best defensive team is points against throughout the season. Some football purists might disagree in favor of a more complicated formula. But to me, it's just good horse sense. In baseball, a pitcher's worth is his ERA -- more so than his won / loss record. The rating of defensive half of a football team likewise ought to be determined by the number of points against. Anyone who wants to argue with that is welcome.

New England fans are usually optimists when it comes to the Patriots and Celtics and pessimists when it comes to the Bruins and Red Sox. This year, Pats fans not as sanguine as in 2007 and 2008 when they finished 16-0 and 11-5 respectively. A Pats' record of 10-6 doesn't seem like a Superbowl contender. But I disagree. With Wes Welker they were the best team in the AFC. Without him, the Pats have as good a chance as anyone.

Here are the final numbers:

Points Against

Jets - 236
Cowboys - 250
Ravens - 261
49'ers - 281
Patriots - 285

The Pats were the fifth best offensive team in the NFL

The Pats finished with the fifth best offensive numbers in the NFL and second in the AFC. There is no way we can compare this team to 2007, the greatest offensive team of all time. But one could argue too that the NFL is more homogeneous than it was two years ago. Here is how the numbers stacked up.

Points For

Saints - 510
Vikings - 470

Packers - 461
Chargers - 454
Eagles - 429
Patriots - 427

* Teams in italics are not playoff bound.
* Teams in blue are NFC teams

It's difficult to factor in the big differences in offense and defense in the AFC vs. the NFC. That is why the ratio of PF / PA is a better indicator. But for the foreseeable AFC playoff future, it looks like the Pats's home field advantage bodes well for them against the Ravens. I see it as an easy win. I'll post my numbers for all playoff games in a few days. The trip to San Diego is supposed to be the tough round 2 game that poses the biggest problem. I give the Pats a 50-50 shot against the Chargers even without Welker. Then looks like a Jets / Pats AFC championship game in Foxboro, which could be a laugher in favor of New England.

That's how I see it.

The Chargers are the team that stands in the way of a Patriots trip to Superbowl XLIV in Miami in February.

My 2009 AFC East Predictions

New England Patriots 13-3
Buffalo Bills 9-7
New York Jets 7-9
Miami Dolphins 7-9

The Actual Outcome

New England Patriots 10-6

New York Jets 9-7
Miami Dolphins 7-9
Buffalo Bills 6-10

It's obvious that the AFC East is much better than in 2007 when the Pats went 16-0. That softens the perception that the Pats are much worse. In fact, here I'll use the PF / PA effect again.

My Total PF / PA Prediction for 2009 Pats Games*

477 / 238

The Actual Outcome

427 / 285

My total PF / PA ratio is almost exactly 2 to1 strangely enough.

Even more strange is the fact that the actual outcome ended up being almost exactly 1.5 to 1.

* Note that I forgot to post a prediction in what ended up being a 59-0 win against the Titans in snowy Foxboro. That would have affected the Points For, but as it stands the effect on Points Against is null.

Final Analysis

The Patriots were wildly inconsistent this year. Given a performance reminiscent of one of their better outings, they can beat any team in the NFL. If they play just consistent with their average performance throughout the season, I have to say they have a better than even chance of making it to the Superbowl.

Red Sox 2010 starting line-up and pitching rotation

2010-01-05T08:35:00.000-08:00

Projected Batting Order / Position / Career BA / Career OPS*

Jacoby Ellsbury / CF / .297/ .764
Dustin Pedroia / 2B / .307 / .825
Victor Martinez / C / .299 / .837
Kevin Youkilis / 1B / .292 / .878
David Ortiz / DH / .282 / .922
J.D. Drew / RF / .283 / .896
Adrian Beltre / 3B / .270 / .779
Mike Cameron / LF / .250 / .788
Marco Scutaro / SS / .265 / .721

This is an amazing defense as the Red Sox have potential Gold Glove winners at almost every position. After what was a good year in 2009 when they ranked third in the American League, it gives the Red Sox possibly the best defensive team in the AL.

Offensively, the Red Sox finished second or third in nearly every team category in 2009 -- a year in which the Yankees' bats dominated baseball. Despite losing Jason Bay, the Red Sox look about the same in 2010. The top two-thirds of the line-up will be fearsome on day one. Look for them to add a big bat sometime during the season and they will be a World Series contender once again.

* Note:-- Here I use OPS (On Base plus Slugging percentage).

Pitching Rotation / Career ERA

Jon Lester / 3.66
Josh Beckett / 3.79
John Lackey / 3.81
Daisuke Matsuzaka / 4.00
Tim Wakefield / 4.33
Clay Buchholz / 4.91

Simply, this is the best pitching rotation in baseball. Every starter except Clay Buchholtz has been a 15 game winner within the last three years. The flashes of brilliance in the last three years show promise of becoming more of the norm as Buchholtz will be 26-years-old this season. With the exception of Wakefield, who will be 44, this is a young pitching staff that could make the Red Sox contenders for years to come.

This is what will make fans happy in the long run. Pitching and defense wins World Series' Championships. The offense is good enough to get them to the postseason. A four man playoff rotation is good enough to get them all the way there. Theo Epstein needs to add just a bit more depth to the middle relief in the off season and the Red Sox will have the best team in years.

Welker drama in Houston

2010-01-03T13:51:00.000-08:00

Your best offensive player has to leave the game with a knee injury in the first drive.

The Boston Globe immediately calls it a "nightmare scenario."

Oh yes, and Tom Brady has three broken ribs -- he has for several weeks. We just learned this today. Only Brady could throw for four touchdowns in the first half in last week's game with three broken ribs.

If my best player suffered a minor bruise in the first play of a meaningless game, I would take him out for the rest of the game. The predictions of the Patriots' playoff demise are premature. Even if the Welker injury is minor, Belichek will still win the award for the most second-guessed coach of the year award.

Patriots Report: Week 17

2010-01-03T10:21:00.000-08:00

My prediction for week 17:

Pats: 21
Titans: 14

Every other line has the Titans by about eight points. The conventional wisdom is that the Pats will rest their key players and take a loss in a meaningless game.

Brady says he won't rest though and Belichek is a stranger to convention. The Pats are still looking for that team continuity. This is more than a tune-up; it's a search for that lost magic that is the domain of the "Team of the Decade."

If the Pats are to make a strong playoff run, that momentum must start right now.

Disclaimer: The score is 7-0 Titans as I post this.

Patriots Report: Week 16

2009-12-24T22:08:00.000-08:00

The Magic Number is 1!

Look for that exclamation point to to disappear if the Pats can't clinch the division with a win at home against the Jaguars on Sunday.

The goal for the next two weeks has to be, in Tom Brady's own words, "Finding some consistency" on offense. In the five games when the offense has been stellar, the Pats have looked like the sure winners of Superbowl XLVI.

And believe it or not, New England is now tied for the fourth best defense in the NFL.

The bottom line is that despite all the fan pessimism that has resulted from four really horrible losses this season, and only five really dominant wins, the Pats are still in a position to put it all together for a strong playoff run. There isn't a team in the conference that they cannot beat if they have all the parts working.

Really.

They can do it, but all cylinders need to be firing. I look at it this way. The defense has allowed 16.27 points per game on average. However, the offense has only scored 24.3 points per game. What they need to do is put up a couple of convincing two or three touchdown victories in the final two games to generate some good momentum going into January.

But first things first. Sewing up the division should look like this.

My prediction for week 16:

Pats: 31
Jags: 14

Patriots Report: Week 15

2009-12-17T16:27:00.000-08:00

Last week I predicted:

Pats: 28
Panthers: 14

The Result:

Pats: 20
Panthers: 10

Okay, it's not as accurate as I can sometimes be, but neither is Tom Brady, although I do like the symmetry.

I had to watch last week's game in one of those wonderfully awful British pubs we have on every block on 192 between downtown Kissimmee and Clermont. Of course, no one was watching the Dolphins-Jaguars. It wasn't even on one of the TVs. But there were about 10 other New England fans hanging on every play and occassionally glancing at New Orleans and Indy. One of the Bostonians made the brilliant remark that the Patriots are in effect "playing 'possum" until the very end of the season when they will suddenly turn on the gas and play like our mighty heroes of the unforgotten past.

And yes, we do have 'possums in New England, so this guy might know what he is talking about. We tend to call them "opossums," however, which is actually their real name. And no New Englander has ever eaten possum fritters. Believe it or not, you redneck. We also have lots of "crayfish" in our lakes and streams, but we don't eat those either. We use them for bait when fishing for large mouth bass. So if you are inside the 495 beltway, don't go talking about "smokin' some crawdads." People are liable to get the wrong idea.

The "playing 'possum" analogy is a nice thought that even I with my steely logic have succumbed to on occassion in thinking about Brady's on-and-off "comeback." Whenever I do, I have to remind myself that this is the NFL. It's not a 200 meter race where the best runner just has to keep pace and then turn it on in the final stretch. Anything can happen in December.

My Prediction for week 15:

Pats 35
Bills 9

The game against the Bills is a no-brainer. They have to win. They have to pull out all the stops. They have to win big. The defense can't turn it off toward the end. Randy Moss has to catch everything he can get his fingertips on.

The Jets play the undefeated Colts in two weeks. So there is little hope of this mediocre team winning all of their final three. So the Pats have a game to give against New York.

The biggest pitfall, I hate to say, is Miami. If the Dolphins lose on Sunday, it's over. But if both teams win, it puts the Patriots in a scenario in which dropping even with Miami means losing the division once again via tie breakers. If New England falls even with Miami by losing to the Bills, then the Pats lose the "games within the division" tie-breaker.

If they win against the Bills, they still have to finish a game ahead of Miami to win the division. Once week 15 is in the bag, New England plays Jacksonville and Houston. A loss to either Jacksonville at home in two weeks or at Houston would be a disaster.

Here's why.

DIVISION RECORD

Pats ----- 3 wins - 2 losses - 1 TBD at Bills
Dolphins - 4 wins - 2 losses

Here I am assuming both teams win this week. The Pats impove to 9-5 and the Dolphins 8-6. But that will put them even in division record at season's end.

COMMON OPPONENTS

Then look here! Last week the Pats beat Carolina and the Dolphins beat Jacksonville. Let's say both teams win again this week.

Pats ----- 7 wins - 3 losses - 2 TBD
Dolphins - 7 wins - 4 losses - 1 TBD

If the Pats split their last two games and Miami wins the last two, the two teams end up tied and move on to the next tie breaker.

CONFERENCE RECORD

This is assuming both teams win this Sunday and the Dolphins pick up a game on the Patriots to draw even in the last two weeks.

Pats ----- 7 wins - 5 losses
Dolphins - 8 wins - 4 losses

The Dolphins win the division!

CONCLUSION

The Pats have their proverbial destiny in their own hands. They have to win every game unless the Dolphins lose one. They can count on the Colts finishing off the Jets. But if they drop even with Miami, the Pats are cooked.

Patriots Report: Week 14 & 2009 AFC East Tie Breaker Scenarios

2009-12-07T12:11:00.000-08:00

Simple:

Pats: 28
Panthers: 14

The Pats continue to be less than stellar, but put them in Foxboro where they are undefeated and it's a no-brainer.

2009 AFC East Tie Breaker Scenarios

Following the collapse of the Pats against a great team and a mediocre team, New England Fans need to assess the postseason scenario.

Win all four games and the Pats win the division with an outside (very outside) shot at the the number two seeding if they make up ground on four other teams and beat all the tie breaker scenarios.

A more likely scenario is the division and a resulting third or fourth seeding -- which makes no difference. New Englanders refuse to look at the Wild Card scenario while their team is still even one game ahead of the rest of the division. Red Sox fans do that, but not Patriots fans.

I think that neither the Jets nor the Dolphins are capable of going 4-0 for the rest of the season. The Jets have to play the undefeated Colts at Indianapolis. The Dolphins have to beat the Jaguars in Jacksonville. In that case, the Pats look pretty safe even at 3-1.

Still with both the Jets and the Dolphins a game back, it's possible that further Patriots losses could force a tie or even a three-way tie.

Here are the tie breaker scenarios. I am not going to analyze a situation that has any other team except the Patriots tied for first place. There are far too many variables for that analysis and I simply won't care. I also won't analyze a still possible tie with the Bills. Not yet at least.

DIVISION RECORD

Pats ----- 3 wins - 2 losses - 1 TBD at Bills
Dolphins - 4 wins - 2 losses
Jets ----- 3 wins - 3 losses

If the Pats lose to the Bills and tie the Dolphins, the Pats' season is over. But if they beat the Bills, it goes to the next tie breaker.

If the Pats lose to the Bills and tie only with the Jets for the division lead, it goes to the next tie breaker.

COMMON OPPONENTS

This is trickier. But not too tricky for me. Divisional rivals play 12 games a year against common opponents. Here are common opponents based on the Patriots record only. I won't do a Jets-Dolphins head-to-head comparison here because I simply don't care.

Pats ----- 5 wins - 3 losses - 4 TBD
Dolphins - 5 wins - 4 losses - 3 TBD
Jets ----- 4 wins - 5 losses - 3 TBD

Pats-Dolphins - The Pats are a game ahead of the Dolphins at the moment in common opponents. A tie scenario assumes that the Pats win against the Bills, but drop at least one other game to a common opponent to put them even. Besides the Bills, all three remaining Patriot games are against common opponents. Assuming the Dolphins win all four of their remaining games, the Pats have to win against the Bills and go 2-1 in the other three games to force a tie breaker.

Pats-Jets - The Pats are two games ahead of the Jets in common opponents. Assuming the Jets win all their remaining games, then a tie scenario has New England going 2-2 against common opponents.

CONFERENCE RECORD

This is where it becomes nearly impossible to outline all the scenarios, but here are Pats head to head with the Dolphins and Jets. Each NFL team plays 12 games a year within their own conference.

Pats ----- 5 wins - 4 losses - 3 TBD
Dolphins - 4 wins - 4 losses - 4 TBD
Jets ----- 5 wins - 5 losses - 2 TBD

Here the Pats are a game up on the Dolphins in the win column. Again, the Pats can afford to lose one more than the Dolphins here to remain even. The Pats also are a game ahead of the Jets in the loss column. The same rule applies, but Jets are in a slightly worse position here than the other two teams especially since one of those games is against the undefeated Indiana Colts.

STRENGTH OF VICTORY

This is the total winning percentage of all opponents. Of course, it's impossible to know with four games to go. But let me say: I DID not KNOW that!

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

Miami, NE and NY in that order. At least, I think so.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Essentially, back-to-back wins against two weak teams, the Panthers and the Bills, in the next two weeks puts the Patriots in very good shape. Couple that with a Miami loss to the Jaguars, and I may be in a position to call it by then.

Patriots Report: Week 13

2009-12-06T10:54:00.000-08:00

It's 14-7 as I write this. I was going to predict Patriots 34 to Dolphins 10, so I am sticking to my original story. Really.

More analysis later ...

Patriots Report: Week 12

2009-11-27T12:36:00.000-08:00

Last week's prediction

Pats 44
Jets 14

Final score

Pats 31
Jets 14

I thought the Pats would score 28 points prior to the second half. They scored 24. Are the Pats letting up in the second half? Are they saving themselves for the really tough opponents?

Monday Night Football has the Pats and the Saints. On paper the Saints look to be the best team in the NFL. In reality, the Saints are not as good as the Pats or the Colts. However, if they win this game, they will likely go 16-0 if they can get past Dallas.

The NFL could end up with two 16-0 teams!

Although it is obvious, I'll let my only commenter explain why a regular season mark of 16-0 is a certain kiss of death in the playoffs.

If the Pats win this game they have a shot at a bye. If they lose, they are are still looking to all but wrap-up the division the next week in Miami. It's not a meaningless game by far, but in the grand scheme of things, a loss is just one loss It doesn't mean much to either team's playoff hopes.

It's difficult to analyze how the two teams stack up. The Pats are by far the better defensive team. Only one other division leader's defense (San Diego) has performed more poorly than New Orleans.

The Saints look to be winners purely on their offensive numbers -- one that could challenge several of New England's 2007 records. But how much of this is a good team made to look like the greatest offensive team in history by their schedule?

The Patriots should win with the best defense the Saints will see all year -- second only to Indianapolis.

The odds makers are all over the map with this one. I predict the Pats by four points.

My Prediction

Pats 37
Saints 33

It's Doug Flutie Day!

2009-11-26T21:31:00.000-08:00

Not only is New England known for inventing Thanksgiving, but it's also known for Doug Flutie.

It was 25 years ago today (November 26th, 1984) that former Boston College quarterback Doug Flutie threw the legendary Hail Mary pass to receiver Gerard Phelan (Yes, remember him? Great catch Gerard!) to give the Eagles a thrilling 47-45 last-second win over the University of Miami.

Flutie graduated from Natick High School the same year that I graduated from Framingham North. Just think, if I had actually played football in high school I could tell everyone that I played against Flutie every time the Hail Mary pass is mentioned. Too bad I didn't play football. It robs me of the opportunity to live in the shadow of a living legend.

It's only fitting though. I had no idea who Doug Flutie was until that pass. I didn't even watch the game. It would have been fun though to have been in an Irish Bar in Boston watching the last seconds of that game (as one of my roommates in college claims he in fact was).

Flutie says that a day hasn't gone by since 1984 when someone hasn't mentioned it to him at least once. Although many people think that the Hail Mary pass clinched the Heisman Trophy for Flutie, the voting was already completed before that game.

Flutie still lives in Natick where he has a special room in his house just to display his Heisman Trophy. A motion censor lights the trophy whenever anyone enters the room. I kid you not. While that might seem egomaniacal to some, you have to remember that ... well it is sort of egomaniacal, isn't it?

He went on to play backup quarterback for the Bears and the Patriots for five years (including the 1986 Bears team that beat the Patriots in the Superbowl). He left for the Canadian Football league where he, as a starting quarterback, set all kinds of records and was elected to the Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility. Finally, he ended up with the hated Buffalo Bills, but remained so popular in New England that Pats fans would cheer for him when he played in Foxborough.

Flutie led the Bills to a 10–5 record in 1999 but, in a controversial decision, was replaced by Rob Johnson for the playoffs by coach Wade Phillips. The Bills have not appeared in a playoff game since and some say this is due to the "Flutie Curse."

He moved on to the Chargers and ended his career playing for the Patriots as the back-up quarterback to Tom Brady in 2005. During Flutie's career, the New England Patriots made it to the Super Bowl four times, but Flutie was not on any of those teams. What a travesty.

Other Trivia About Flutie

In his last season with the Patriots, a December 26, 2005 game against the Jets, Flutie was sent in late in the game. The Jets also sent in their back-up quarterback, Vinny Testaverde. This was the first time in NFL history that two quarterbacks over the age of 40 competed against each other (Testaverde was 42, Flutie was 43).

In the Patriots' regular-season finale against Miami on January 1, 2006, Flutie was sent in as the back-up quarterback for a seeming conversion play. Instead, Flutie successfully drop kicked a football for an extra point, something that had not been done in a regular-season NFL game since 1941. It was his last play in the NFL. For some strange reason I am more impressed with that than with the Hail Mary pass.

Although many people assume he is a New England born Irishman, he was actually born in Maryland to Lebanese parents. They moved to Melbourne Beach, Florida when he was six. They lived there until the space program slow-down in 1976 brought the family to Natick.

He plays drums in his brother's rock band -- the Flutie Brothers Band.

He played drums in the rock group Boston's tribute to their deceased drummer Brad Delp.

For years, the traffic congestion between Shpper''s World in Framingham and the Natick Mall was horrendous. No one understood why they couldn't just connect the two parking lots. The two towns could never agree on the zoning for some weird reason. When the Natick Mall was torn down and rebuilt, they built a road, "Flutie Pass."

Patriots Report: Week 11

2009-11-21T21:54:00.000-08:00

I predicted - Pats 28 Colts 24
Final score - Colts 35 Pats 34

There is so much to say about that game. Missed my own spread by five points, but it seems like a lot more. The loss means only that the Patriots went from having a slim chance to virtually no chance to win the number one seed in the playoffs. A win against the Colts would have necessitated the Pats picking up another game on the Colts, which I didn't see as likely. So now the Patriots' goal is to win the division by finishing 13-3, hopefully grabbing a number two seed and a resulting bye week in the playoffs. That's a scenario any fan would have gladly taken after week two's embarrassing loss to the Jets.

Accordingly, a lot of people are calling this the "revenge game." I don't think the Jets deserve that much respect. The Patriots will end the Jets postseason hopes with an easy win. The odds makers have the Pats by 10 points. No problem. In fact, triple that. The Pats by 30 points. The offense has hit its stride in the last few games. The week two loss to the Jets had Tom Brady unable to connect with Randy Moss. That doesn't look to be much of a problem anymore.

The Jets do still have a good running game and should score a couple of times. But I see New England scoring early and often. Is 28 points before the second half too optimistic? We will see. Although Brady's stats have been ridiculously amazing in the past three weeks, I think that they will mix it up a bit more and use the running game as well, especially after getting a comfortable lead.

My prediction:

Pats 44
Jets 14

Patriots Report: Week 10

2009-11-12T06:50:00.000-08:00

Week 9 Review

I predicted - Pats 35 Dolphins 10
Final score - Pats 27 Dolphins 17

New England has outscored opponents by a combined 121-24 in the last three games!

This was a game that never seemed close even when the Dolphins were ahead by a point in the second half. One got that feeling that Brady-Moss could explode for two or three touchdowns in a row. Still my prediction was off by a touchdown in either direction. The Dolphins always seem to unveil new offensive plays when facing the Pats. This time it was the "pistol" formation, which was formerly used mainly in college games.

With the offense now on-line, the rest of the Pats 2009 season will look like the 2007 all-time record setting team. More importantly, this was a must win for Miami if they wanted to reach the playoffs. Playing in Florida later in the season won't be as much fun if the division is decided. The Pats at that point will be competing for seeding and it could be a rout.

The Patriots are now the second ranked team in defense. At the beginning of the season, conventional wisdom said that the air attack would more than make up for a questionable defense. Ironically, it has been the most consistent part of the Pats' game. Brady has put together three solid outings in a row.

The Patriots have the momentum going into this game, but with the Pats-Colts anything can happen. The Colts represent the toughest challenge of the year. The two teams are evenly matched. One could argue the Colts numbers are inflated due to the teams they have played thus far. he Pats have to finish off two undefeated teams and beat the Jets. If they go 2-1, then the rest of the season looks like gravy. Still the Colts are the best team in the NFL on paper. The winner of this game has to be considered the Superbowl favorite.

Patriots-Colts games are always great football, they are the only two teams to have greater than a .700 winning percentage since 2001, so no matter what the outcome, this is one to be savored. It's a fitting way to enter the second half of the season. Is there really a greater rivalry in the NFL?

My prediction:

Pats - 28
Colts - 24

Patriots Report: Week 9

2009-11-08T10:23:00.000-08:00

Week 7 Review
I predicted - Pats 35 Bucs 9
Final score - Pats 35 Bucs 7

Not enough time to write much else.

Disclosure: It's already 3-0 Dolphins as I write this.

This week:

Patriots 35
Dolphins 10

The Best Sports City in North America? - It's Boston!

2009-11-03T06:57:00.000-08:00

New York City currently has 47 major professional sports world championships.

Boston is second with 31.

Montreal is third with 26.

Then consider that the metro area of New York is 18.8 million, while Boston's metro area is 4.4 million and Montreal's metro area is 3.8 million.

It's a testimony to which city's fans are the most supportive per capita.

This is from: http://www.nuttyaboutsports.com/best-championship-city.shtml

When considering which city can rightfully lay claim to being the best sports city in North America, New York City almost immediately pops into everyone's mind. New York sports teams have won the most championships of any city in North America (47 in all).

When you look at it a little bit closer, however, New York may not be able to rightfully claim the title "Best Sports City in North America." New York currently has, and has had throughout its history, the most sports teams of any North American city. One would expect a city with that many teams to have won a few championships over the years. When you remove the New York Yankees from the equation - yes, I know that they are the most successful sports franchise in the history of professional sports - but, for the sake of argument let's look at New York without the Yankees. Without the Yankees' 26 championships, New York's sports accomplishments look much more modest (the 21 remaining championships would rank them third on the list of most championships).

So if we were to rule out New York, who else then, could lay claim to the "Best Sports City in North America"? A case could be made for Montreal, third on the list of most championships with 26. Even more impressive is that all of their championships have been garnered in a single sport - hockey (24 by the Canadiens, and 2 more by the Montreal Maroons). But it is the one dimensional nature of their championship accomplishment, impressive though it may be, that should eliminate them from consideration.

Where, then, does that leave us? It leaves us in the Bay State in the City of Boston. Boston is second on the list of cities with the most championships with 31. More impressive is that Boston's teams have won numerous championships in all four of the major North American sports (baseball, basketball, football, and hockey). Boston's major sports teams rank at or near the top of each of their respective sports for the most championships (see below).

Boston Red Sox - 3rd with 7 World Series Championships

Boston Celtics - 1st with 16 NBA Championships

New England Patriots - 4th (tie) with 3 Super Bowl Championships

Boston Bruins - 4th (tie) with 5 Stanley Cup Championships

When you compare this to New York:

Sport ----------------- Boston ----------------- New York

Baseball -------------- Boston Red Sox - 3rd -- New York Yankees - 1st

-------------------------------------------------- New York Mets - 13th

Basketball ------------ Boston Celtics - 1st ----- New York Knicks - 7th

Football -------------- Patriots - 4th -------------New York Giants - 8th

-------------------------------------------------- New York Jets - 11th

Hockey -------------- Boston Bruins - 4th ------ New York Rangers - 6th

-------------------------------------------------- New York Islanders - 6th (tie)

The Boston team rankings range from 1st through 4th, while the New York team rankings range from 1st through 13th. Each city has a team that has the most championships in their respective sport (the Celtics and the Yankees). After that, Boston ranks 4th in football versus 8th and 11th for the Giants and Jets, and 4th in Hockey versus a tie for 6th for the Islanders and the Rangers. The average championship rank for New York's teams is over 7 while the average rank for Boston's teams is 3rd.

One final way of looking at this issue is the average number of championships per team. Boston's 4 current teams* have a collective 30 championships, or an average of 7.5 per team. New York's 7 current teams collectively have 41 championships for an average of 5.8 per team.

Clearly, both are great sports cities, but when it comes who is the "Best Sports City in North America," the answer is (drum roll please) - Boston, Massachusetts.

* Current teams refers to the number of teams in the four major sports - baseball, basketball, football, and hockey.

Patriots Report: Bye Week

2009-11-01T20:36:00.000-08:00

In a stunning upset Bye has beaten the Patriots by a shut out. Coach Slough of team Bye said: "It is fair to say that the Patriots underestimated us. I think they were taking us for granted when the Patriots didn't field any of their starters."

Despite an uneventful first half, the tide turned in the second half when the Byes held New England to zero yards offense both on the ground and in the air. Never before in the history of the Patriots have they been held to zero yards.

Bill Belichek had this to say: "We were unable to get any spy film footage of the Byes and therefore we never knew how to prepare. It was like we didn't even show up for the game. We are shocked by this. Honestly we thought we could coast through the weekend and save some of our banged up players. Team Bye couldn't even beat a high school team. We just didn't see it coming."

Heading into next week Belichek vented his sour grapes.... "This was the worst officiated game I have ever seen. They were totally absent minded with their calls. They didn't even get the coin toss correct."

NFL commissioner Roger Goodell dismissed calls for suspected game fixing. "As far as we can tell nothing suspicious happened on the field even though Vegas bookmakers made huge payouts to Ben Bernanke."

No comments were available at press time as Mr. Bernanke's office refused to return our calls. High level un-named sources told us: "Ben is used to money from nothing. It is not unusual for him to profit in this manner."

When pressed further our source did admit that Bernie Madoff expressed severe jealousy as did Michael Astrue the Social Security Commissioner who confessed: "We have been doing transactions like this for years. It now seems that others have discovered our technique. Not the least of which are the Byes who have managed to prevail with nothing. Until now only a select few have been able to prevail with nothing. We are very concerned. They could even win the Super Bowl. Nothing can stop them now."

Patriots Report: Week 6 & 7

2009-10-19T12:53:00.000-07:00

I didn't make any crazy predictions last week about the Pats/Titans game. It's a good thing too, because I would have come up with something like Pat 38-10.

And then how embarrassing would that have been?

The greatest shutout in post-merger NFL history -- 59-0. All that happened by the third quarter -- a record. Most points in a half -- 45-0. Most points in a quarter -- 35-0.

And on and on we could go. Too many firsts to count. In fact, this game may hold the record for the most records. It could have been a 90-0 game, if Belichek hadn't shown his well-known sensitive side.

The largest shutout in NFL history was in the 1940 NFL Championship game when the Chicago Bears defeated the Washington Redskins 73-0. If it were me, I would have gone for the record. "Why not? We are here and in uniform." That's what I would have said.

It makes up for the time I sat on a cold metal bench on New Year's Eve in 1978 and watched the Pats lose to the same team (then called the Oilers) in a lopsided divisional playoff game. Fittingly, this game was played in an October snowstorm.

So next week the Patriots participate in the annual travesty known as the London Bowl where we ugly Americans try to force our stupid sports on Londoners and whoever else who happens to be unfortunate enough to watch the Pats beat up on another excuse for a once great professional sports franchise called the Bucs.

This time they may spot the opposing team some points simply so the Brits won't think we are bloody daft.

My Prediction:

Pats 35
Bucs 9

Then it's a bye-week and then it's on to Miami!

I challenged my Miami fan friend, Barack Abdul Ali to spring for two tickets, but offered to pay for both of them plus all gas if the Dolphins won. So far, he is cowering behind an automatic email reply message.

Patriots Report: Week 5

2009-10-11T11:50:00.001-07:00

Last week --

I predicted - Ravens 21 Pats 20
Final score - Pats 27 Ravens 21

As Maxwell Smart would say, "Missed it by that much!"

Not a lot to say about the Broncos. The Broncos are undefeated and look to be a tough team to beat in Mile High Stadium. (I know it's not still called that exactly, but unless they are paying me or I like the product, I don't mention sponsors.)

The Broncos are good, but the Pats should have this one easily. Recent history shows that Belichek knows all their weaknesses. Brady should be back to form by the fifth game. The line is Pats by 3.5. I give them two touchdowns on top of that using my "Calgon ancient Chinese secret" method.

Then it gets easier after this week -- at least for few weeks.

THIS WEEK

Patriots 35
Broncos 17

UPDATE: The Red Sox season is over. Let's go Pats! Bruins! Celtics!

Patriots Report: Week 4

2009-10-02T21:56:00.000-07:00

Last week's prediction.

I predicted - Pats 28 Falcons 14
Final score - Pats 26 Falcons 16

In my AFC East 2009/2010 preview, I wrote that in order to go to go 13-3, the Patriots would have to win one of four tough games, the Falcons being one of them. The unexpected loss to the Jets made me change my mind. The Ravens I did not count on being so good, so I am now reversing this one as well.

THIS WEEK

Ravens 21
Patriots 20

I'll admit this is a tough one. I haven't predicted that the Pats would lose in over two years. I've been right 29 out of 35 times. But this one has been nagging at me. I just don't like this match up at this time.

I didn't see the Ravens as being such a strong team, but they are better than the Pats at this point in the season. Their defense has been stellar and Tom Brady isn't clicking on all cylinders yet. So I must predict a loss.

The Jets will probably win against New Orleans, which means that the Pats will be down two games come Monday.

Ouch!

Two things could reverse that scenario.

1. The Pats defense, which has been much better than expected, could hold the Ravens to one touchdown.

2. Brady could have his inevitable break-out game.

That's all they have to do. Hold the opposition to one touchdown per game and with "Brady being Brady," they'll go undefeated all the way through Superbowl XLIV.

But a loss tomorrow is not the end of the season. This is going to be a classic and exciting New England team that will mature and improve as the season wears on.

Star Wars Part VII - How The East Was Bought

2009-09-30T06:48:00.000-07:00

It is a dark day for the Republic ...

The Dark Lord's son, Hank Steinvader
has opened the vast treasury of the Empire
and has refitted his fleet with twice as much
fire-power as the Republican forces. But is Evil
ever truly a match for the light side of the Force?
A beleaguered Republican army has vowed to fight!
With his courageous pilots, Beckett and Lester, the last
Jedi, Daisuke, leads his faithful droids, P3DR0A and UUU! -
and two ancient yet resilient Wookie clones - Papi and Knuckleball.

Before a last desperate assault against Death Star X, our brave heroes

must defeat a formidable legion on the distant smog planet of the Angels ...

Payrolls and Championships

The two tier team payroll structure in baseball is a reality for teams who want to compete for a playoff spot in October. This year, there is a new category in the Yankees who still top the salary cap of $200,000 despite the recession. The bloated Evil Empire has just bought its 10th division title in 12 years despite failing to sell-out its overpriced box seats in the new Yankee Stadium, "the house that Hank built."

The stark fact remains that teams who want to make the playoffs must shell out at least $100,000 in player salaries, especially in the American League. The two notable exceptions this year are the Rockies and the Cardinals, two National League teams that reached the World Series three times in the past five years, the Rockies in 2007, and the Cardinals losing in 2004, but winning it all in 2005.

American League Playoff Teams

Eastern Division - New York Yankees

Central Division - Detroit Tigers or Minnesota Twins

Western Division - Los Angeles Angels

Wild Card - Boston Red Sox

National League Playoff Teams

Eastern Division - Philadelphia Phillies

Central Division - St. Louis Cardinals

Western Division - Los Angeles Dodgers

Wild Card - Colorado Rockies

2009 MLB payrolls

Yankees $201,449,289
Mets $135,773,988
Cubs $135,050,000
Red Sox $122,696,000
Tigers $115,085,145
Angels $113,709,000
Phillies $113,004,048
Astros $102,996,415
Dodgers $100,458,101
Mariners $98,904,167
Braves $96,726,167
White Sox $96,068,500
Cardinals $88,528,411
Giants $82,161,450
Indians $81,625,567
Blue Jays $80,993,657
Brewers $79,857,502
Rockies $75,201,000
D-backs $73,571,667
Reds $70,968,500
Royals $70,908,333
Rangers $68,646,023
Orioles $67,101,667
Twins $65,299,267
Rays $63,313,035
Athletics $62,310,000
Nationals $59,328,000
Pirates $48,743,000
Padres $42,796,700
Marlins $36,814,000

Patriots Report: Week 3

2009-09-27T03:08:00.000-07:00

Not much time to do this one.

First, last week's prediction.

I predicted - Pats 28 Jets 14
Final score - Pats 9 Jets 16

Just three more touchdowns and I would have been right on! Amazing! Just one touchdown would have been nice.

THIS WEEK

Patriots 28
Falcons 14

I know you are thinking, "Hey wait a minute! That's the same score you predicted last week!"

The conventional wisdom is the Pats by 4 points. That is not going to happen in Foxboro. There is something to prove. The game could be described as a match-up of underachievers vs. overachievers.

Offensively, the Patriots look to many to be a shambles. I see this as the game where Tom Brady steps up with a little more quickness and precision. Four touchdowns easily.

Defensively, a lot has been made of the four major departures. I don't really see much of a difference in terms of stats. The Jets scored just one touchdown last week.

The most obvious adjustment they should make is running the ball a bit more. That ought to exploit an Atlanta team that is now without defensive tackle Jeria Perry.

The Pats haven't lost back-to-back games in 41 weeks. New England has won 15 straight regular-season games against NFC opponents going back to 2005. I tried to find the NFL record on that one to no avail. No doubt football expert Barack Abdul Ali will know that one off the top of his head. Barack!?

Here's an interesting trivia tidbit: According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the 2007 Patriots became the first American pro sports team to open a season with 18 straight victories in more than 100 years, dating back to baseball's Union Association in 1884.

"Yeah, but can Brady throw under pressure?"

2009-09-20T20:14:00.000-07:00

I always like it when someone takes a professional athlete who is statistically the best in his position and says, "Yeah, but can he do this!"

There's an old Woody Allen movie in which the female lead is raving about some handsome, strong, perfect hero of a guy. Then wimpy-looking Woody asks, "But can he do this?" while doing a contorted dance movement that no one would ever need to do unless he had to.

That scene has been replayed in my mind countless times when after I wax poetic about the Patriots great achievements of this decade and then my friend Barack Abdul-Ali pulls out the meaningless sack statistic. Sacks are meaningful in any given game, just as interceptions, turnovers, quarterback hurries and third down conversions are meaningful. However, sacks are meaningful only if you can calculate ratios and outcomes, not simply raw numbers. The most sacked lifetime statistics belong to the greatest quarterbacks in history simply because they pass more often.

To put it more succinctly: Despite all of the hype, the defensive sack statistic on its own is a meaningless number, and only takes on real meaning when you put it into the context of pass attempts.

"Can he pass under pressure?" is another one. If a quarterback can always pass under pressure, it wouldn't be much pressure to speak of would it? It also ignores the ability of a quarterback to stand and throw more effectively in the pocket as if that is somehow a lesser achievement.

It's like saying that Ted Williams couldn't hit balls out of the strike zone or that Larry Bird couldn't slam dunk.

"The greatest passer in the game can't pass under pressure."

It's nonsense!

Sometimes I think these things are thrown at me just to see if I am paying attention.

What matters with Brady are the statistics at this point in his career, his winning percentage, the total number of games won, and the number of Conference Championships and Superbowl rings.

Two bright spots to today's game ...

You could just sum it up today's game saying the Jets played better defense and better offense. And just barely if you look at the game stats. It's a tough loss in a game that the good guys were favored to win, so that doesn't look good on the surface. It was due to Brady missing a lot of times when he normally connects a lot of times. But there are two bright spots.

1. Brady isn't going to have any more games this year without a single touchdown.

So with this one out of their system, it's off to the races! Just like last year when I said Matt Cassell was "going to be just fine" after he lost a few games -- (Oh great Barack Abdul-Ali, keeper of the archive, you can look that one up!) -- I am going to go way out on a limb here and say that Brady is going to be back to form really soon and we'll start seeing a few of those five to eight touchdown games again.

2. The Pats' defense, thought to be the weakest point of a solid team, also looked good.

Pat's fans are going to panic in the meantime. Although disappointing that Brady couldn't throw just one touchdown pass to tie the game -- like everyone was sure he would -- it isn't a concern in the grand scheme of the 14 games to come. It's just an anomaly.

Patriots Report: Week 2

2009-09-17T13:21:00.000-07:00

LAST WEEK

I need to explain what happened in last week's prediction.

I predicted - Pats 38 Bills 21
Final score - Pats 25 Bills 24

I was off by two touchdowns. However, the Patriots were in the red zone twice and didn't score, which is something they rarely failed to do against Buffalo in the recent past, so the score easily could have been higher.

I was trying to decide if Tom Brady was just rusty in the first 57 minutes or if the Bills have better defense this year. In all, I think Buffalo is an improved team -- though one that New England could have beaten handily if Brady were in mid-season form. I am sticking with my prediction that the Bills will finish second and will have an outside shot at the wild card.

THIS WEEK

The Jets are underdogs on their own turf. Their response? "Let's embarrass them!" Bob Ryan has a fun commentary on the border wars below.

The official line is Pats by 4 points and a total of 45 points.

Four points? Give me a break! I think the point total is about accurate, but it will be the Pats by two touchdowns. With the cobwebs blown off, it should be an entertaining passing show for Brady as always.

Patriots 28
Jets 14

Patriots Report: Week 1

2009-09-10T16:13:00.000-07:00

This is a hard one, but I'll go out on a limb. Patriots put 28 quick points on the board and sit Brady the second half. He is listed on the DL with a bad shoulder after all. More of a concern in the first few weeks than the knee. Bills come back to score three times in the second half. Once during garbage time. Pats fans panic over "shoddy defense." At the end of the day, Pats are the only undefeated team in the AFC East.

PATS - 38
BILLS - 21

Dan Marino on Tom Brady

2009-09-10T14:58:00.000-07:00

"I’ve been in that position before, having to come off injuries, and I believe he’s going to come out smoking, I really do believe it. He’s going to want to prove something, and I don’t care what happened in the preseason, the preseason is overrated. When he comes out there for the first game, he’ll be ready and rolling."

Patriots Report: 2009/2010 AFC East Predictions

2009-09-08T07:55:00.000-07:00

In the last two years, I correctly predicted the exact number of games the Patriots would win in the regular season. If I were a gambling man, I could be a millionaire by now.

I annoyed Dolphins and Bills fans by sending them a "Weekly Patriots Report" (which was often about the Celtics, Bruins and Red Sox as well) proclaiming the just and rightful superiority of all sports New England. I went against all conventional wisdom and predicted the Pats would go undefeated in the regular season in 2007 (of course I said that in 2006 as well). I also claimed the Giants are rightfully the "New Jersey Giants" because they are the only team in the world (with the exception of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) that has the audacity not to name themselves after where they play. And now I humbly have to admit that I didn't see them or the hapless Dolphins coming.

This year is going to be different. If February to December 2008 was Paradise Lost, 2009/2010 will be Paradise Restored. Mark it down. My public record for the regular season is impeccable up to this point. I began this blog for this very reason. Without the few friends who received my weekly email report, there would be no one to confirm my uncanny accuracy. If only I had started this blog two years ago, I might have gathered quite a following by now.

But if you are a gambler, don't listen to anything I say. I can't be perfect forever.

Or so the theory goes.

2009/2010 AFC East Predictions

People think the AFC East is a pretty strong division, but the results last year were skewed by two losses of the Patriots to New York and Miami. This season, the schedule is tougher for the Jets and the Dolphins, but easier for the Patriots. Each team in the AFC East plays four very tough teams in the NFC South and the AFC South. I see these as almost sure losses for every team in the AFC East except the Pats.

New England 13-3
The Pats will better be two games better than last year's 11-5 mark. In fact, I am tempted to put them at 16-0 again, but realism tells me that even the best team is going to lose a few. There is a likely chance that they will post similar offensive numbers as 2007/08. The big question is their defense. But barring injuries, they should be considered a lock for the post-season.

Buffalo 9-7
I see Buffalo as under-performing last season mainly due to injuries late in the season. They'll take three of six games within their own division and will manage to win five more somewhere else. And they'll have a shot at the Wild Card. Whoo Hoo!

Miami 7-9
Ironically, their Achilles' heel is going to be their unexpected success of last year. After finishing last in 2007, the Dolphins played two last place teams in 2008. It's also telling that they eked out narrow wins in several games against truly bad teams. This year, they will lose big against two allotted first place opponents. They also will drop both games to the Pats who will be hyped up for revenge. Everyone has Miami as the outside threat to win the AFC East. But with the uncertain quarterback situation, I think I am being generous to predict only 9 losses.

New York 7-9
Sadly, the Jets handed the Dolphins the division in the last game against Miami last season. When they realized they were mathematically eliminated, they turned a game they still had a shot to win into a joke. I don't believe in karma in sports, but I am making an exception here.

Patriots Schedule Schedule 2009

I'll make a prediction about the first game later this week. Buffalo at home should be a blow-out. But by how much? I'll tell you later. Then week by week, I'll give a final score prediction. For now, I've marked the four tough games I think they could lose in red. I think they'll win at least one of these and have no problem with the rest of their schedule. As I wrote above, these are four very tough teams. But then again, the Pats will be favored in at least three of these games because they play at home.

Something bothers me about the away game against Houston at the very end. If the Pats have their seeding all wrapped up by that date, it could mean a game to start their secondary.

Week 1 -- 9/14 -- vs. Buf
Week 2 -- 9/20 -- @ NYJ
Week 3 -- 9/27 -- vs. Atl
Week 4 -- 10/4 -- vs. Bal
Week 5 -- 10/11 -- @ Den
Week 6 -- 10/18 -- vs. Ten
Week 7 -- 10/25 -- @ TB
Week 8 -- Bye Week
Week 9 -- 11/8 -- vs. Mia
10 -- 11/15 @ Ind
11 -- 11/22 -- vs. NYJ
12 -- 11/30 -- @ NO
13 -- 12/6 -- @ Mia
14 -- 12/13 -- vs. Car
15 -- 12/20 -- @ Buf
16 -- 12/27 -- vs. Jac
17 -- 1/3 -- @ Hou

New England Patriots favored to win Superbowl LXIV

2009-09-02T20:24:00.000-07:00

Odds makers have been saying since the second week of February that the Pats are the odds on favorites to win Superbowl LXIV.

Several "firsts" will occur.

Miami will become the first metro-area in the United States to have hosted 10 Superbowls.

This will be the first Super Bowl telecast solely digitally.

This will be the first Superbowl to use four different Roman numerals.

I am sure there are many more records and "firsts" that will be relevant to the Patriots team, but I will post them as we get into this promising season.

(I haven't posted for a while, but with the Red Sox in playoff contention, the Pats, Celts and Broons all poised for playoff runs, I'll need to get back to writing this secondary blog with a little more seriousness. Around World Series time, I'll write a review of Lost Son of Havana and prove once and for all why it is a travesty that Luis Tiant is not in the Hall of Fame.)

Oh yeah, I almost forgot. Here are the odds:

New England Patriots 8/1

Dallas Cowboys 9/1

New York Giants 10/1

Pittsburgh Steelers 10/1

Indianapolis Colts 12/1

San Diego Chargers 12/1

Baltimore Ravens 14/1

Tennessee Titans 16/1

Carolina Panthers 18/1

Philadelphia Eagles 18/1

New Orleans Saints 20/1

Atlanta Falcons 25/1

Denver Broncos 25/1

Green Bay Packers 25/1

Jacksonville Jaguars 25/1

Minnesota Vikings 25/1

New York Jets 25/1

Arizona Cardinals 30/1

Chicago Bears 30/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30/1

Buffalo Bills 35/1

Houston Texans 35/1

Miami Dolphins 35/1

Washington Redskins 35/1

Seattle Seahawks 50/1

Cleveland Browns 55/1

Cincinnati Bengals 60/1

San Francisco 49ers 60/1

Oakland Raiders 75/1

St. Louis Rams 75/1

Detroit Lions 100/1

Kansas City Chiefs 100/1

SOTOMAYOR'S Bias for the New York Yankees

2009-05-31T09:08:00.000-07:00

from Human Events:

I support the idea of nominating a woman or a hispanic to the U.S. Supreme Court, but not this one, not Judge Sonia Sotomayor. And she's so biased, that I'll go out on a limb to predict the main reason she won't be confirmed:

As a native of South Bronx, Sotomayor's hidden home-town bias became manifest in her love for the New York Yankees, judicially favoring her "Bronx Bombers" over teams from all other cities. No kidding! When ruling to end the 1995 baseball strike, she sided with the player's union against team owners (who sought parity among all teams with an talent-sharing salary cap). Instead Sotomayor created bias in favor of rich teams who can afford to buy up all the good free agents. So when the New York Yankees hogged 4 titles and 6 pennants in the 8 years after her ruling, with payrolls averaging three times most other team salaries, you can blame Sotomayor for creating that competitive imbalance. I understand why Yankees fans might celebrate her promotion to the Supreme Court, but baseball fans from all other cities should complain loudly against her confirmation!

Ellsbury's Straight Steal of Home

2009-04-27T06:44:00.000-07:00

It was the first steal of home for Boston with no other runners attempting to steal since Jeff Frye did it on June 4, 1999, on an attempted squeeze bunt. Before that you have to go all the way back to Billy Hatcher on April 22, 1994 for a straight steal of home by a Red Sox player. A straight steal of home -- an attempt to steal with no other players in motion, such as a double steal or a missed bunt attempt -- is a feat that is about as rare as a no-hitter.

Then to cap off an almost perfect week, it was the Red Sox' tenth straight win. The Bruins just took four straight from their hated rivals -- l'empire mauvais -- the Montreal Canadiens. Only a double overtime Celtics loss marred this remarkable week in this Golden Age of Boston Sports.

Patriots Day Report

2009-04-20T07:09:00.000-07:00

I grew up in Framingham where the famed Boston Marathon zig-zagged north from Hopkington along Waverly Street until it passed through Natick. I used to ride my bicycle to a spot about five miles into the Marathon on Patriots Day when I was in high school. Although only Marathon runners were supposed to be in the race, many people would jump in along the route. Spectators used to ride their bicycles along side the runners too. Until they got more stringent about this a few years ago (remember Rosie Ruiz?) the tail end of the race always looked like a sideshow with many colorful characters.

One day it was drizzling and I stood near a place in the road where train tracks crossed diagonally at an acute angle with the street. The roads in New England of course have frost heaves and this railroad track was a bit hazardous. I remember watching bike after bike hit those tracks that cruelly grabbed the front wheel forcing the cyclists to slide sideways along the rail until they fell over.

We'd yell, "Watch out for the tracks!"

Then "CRASH!"

After a while it became comically tragic -- a real life slapstick reel.

On a typical Patriots Day, the Red Sox play a morning game at 11 AM, then the crowd spills out along Commonwealth Avenue to watch the end of the Marathon. The Celtics will play a postseason game in the Garden at night this year and the Bruins will try for their third win in the first round of their playoff series in Montreal.

Four monumental sports events in one day. What other city can boast that?

On a related note, I have to point out that no one city has ever had three major league sports teams win championships within a year's time. Boston has a chance to have all four of its major league teams -- basketball, hockey, baseball and football -- win a world championship. It's unlikely, but plausible. We'd be happy with one, ecstatic with two. If Boston wins three you'll never hear the end of it. Four and the city spontaneously combusts with revelry never to recover.

Here I will rate the chances of the four teams.

Celtics -- Chances are now looking slim here. Although I am certain they can come back to beat the Bulls, without Kevin Garnett, they will be lucky to make it past the second round. But have the Celts ever gotten lucky before? If they get to the Eastern Conference Finals, then all bets are off and anything can happen. If they can steal a game on the road, then they play three games in the Garden where that leprechaun lives.

Red Sox -- Fair to good. They have a deep well-balanced team -- the best bullpen and starting pitching in their division. They are 28 million under budget for player salaries this year after jettisoning Manny. They can afford to go out and get some offense and a starting shortstop. If the Yankees and the Devil Rays (I still can't believe I am saying that in the same breath) were not in the same division, they'd be a shoe in for the postseason. But even with a great team, it's going to be a three way dog fight.

Patriots -- Very good. After a difficult first half of the season, the Patriots have a cakewalk of a schedule. They reloaded with some quality players and should be much better than the 11-5 team that narrowly lost to the Dolphins last season. How much better? If they can go 6-0 in the first part of the season, you'll be hearing "undefeated" predictions from me again.

Bruins -- Good to excellent. They are arguably the best team in the NHL, second only San Diego in points. They have the best defense and are playing like a team that really wants it after a 36-year drought. Even without the four team miracle, a Bruins championship would be the icing on the cake of a remarkable decade.

The Bird Dies - New England Mourns

2009-04-15T04:46:00.001-07:00

If you grew up in eastern Massachusetts in the 1970s, you idolized "the Bird." No, not that Bird ... Mark Fidrych, the Detroit Tigers' Rookie of the Year sensation in 1976, who sort of resembled Sesame Street's Big Bird and talked to himself on the mound, leading to rumors that he was "telling the baseball what to do."

He went 19-9 as a rookie, leading the American League in earned run average (2.34) and complete games (24). He was the starting pitcher for the AL in the All-Star Game, won the AL Rookie of the Year Award, and finished second to the Orioles' Jim Palmer in the AL Cy Young voting. He did everything all out. No major league pitcher has anything close to 20 complete games anymore. In those days, pitchers were not coddled and paced by management. So his career was unfortunately cut short when he suffered arm injuries.

Although he played for the Tigers, he was a hero in my home town because Northboro is the town just to the northwest of Framingham (just as Doug Flutie's Natick is the town to the southeast). I can remember my step-brother claiming he pitched against him, never minding the fact that Fidrych was five years older than him. Older step-brothers!

Likewise, very few people in Framingham had any idea who Flutie was until he threw that pass in 1984 -- although some of my classmates actually did play against Flutie.

Mark Fidrych played a season or two for the Pawtucket Red Sox, but could never break back into the big leagues. He died yesterday in a truck accident on his farm. He was 54. By all accounts he lived out the rest of his life as a "regular guy" in rural Northboro.

The Boston Globe has an excellent article today on The Bird.

Jim Rice elected to the Hall of Fame

2009-01-22T04:50:00.000-08:00

I always thought Jim Rice was a much better hitter and outfielder than Reggie Jackson. The main reason Reggie was a lock in his first year of eligibility for the Hall of Fame is due of course to his status as "Mr. October." Rice also didn't have the longevity to make him truly legendary as those two other monosyllabic Hall of Famers from Fenway's left field, Ted and Yaz. But over all, Rice compares favorably year-by-year to Reggie.

Rice never won a World Series. It wasn't entirely his fault. He did not play in the legendary 1975 World Series due to a broken wrist. (Who knows what could have been? But then Bernie Carbo would not have played, and we wouldn't have had Fisk's home run in the 12th inning, right?) Then Rice batted .333 in the 1986 World Series with a .455 on-base percentage.

In 1978 (the year the Red Sox would have won the World Series if only ...) Rice became the first American League player to compile 400 total bases since Joe DiMaggio. Rice had 382 career home runs, just shy of the magic shoe-in number of 400. He hit more than 25 home runs in seven of his 16 seasons. His career-high was 46 HRs in 1978, the most in the majors that season. He was the MVP that year and led a group of colorful personalities that was arguably the best Red Sox team ever.

Jim Ed Rice was finally recognized in his last year of eligibility. Everyone knows it is a travesty that it took this long. He finally squeaked in with 76 percent of the votes last week. However, Rice's numbers compare favorably to many other Hall of Famers year-by-year. Just take Reggie Jackson for example. Forget about all-time stats for one moment and tell me who you'd rather have on your team for one year. Remember too the defensive liability of Jackson in the outfield. I once sat in Fenway with my cousin and my father and saw Butch Hobson hit an inside-the-park home run (something almost unheard of in tiny Fenway) in part due to Jackson's lackadaisical attitude in right field. This was when Jackson was with the Orioles in 1976. I also witnessed first hand Jim Rice leg out a double on Jackson in 1977, which resulted in the famous Billy Martin brawl in the Yankees dugout when Reggie was recalled from the outfield in an egregious clash of egos.

It's true that Rice is not even close to the legend he replaced in left field, Carl Yastrzemski, as a total ballplayer, but his defense improved after a rocky start in his first two years and he had a powerful arm.

Statistical Averages Per Year:

Jackson (21 seasons)
Batting average = .262
On base percentage = .356
Slugging percentage = .490
HRs per year = 32
RBI per year = 98
Fielding percentage = .967

Rice (16 seasons)
Batting average = .298
On base percentage = .352
Slugging percentage = .502
HRs per year = 30
RBI per year = 113
Fielding percentage = .980

Now someone has to rectify the injustice done to Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson, then all will be right with the world.

Patriots Reports Week 16

2008-12-30T17:44:00.000-08:00

The Patriots lost so to speak even though they finished with an 11-5 record -- something that's only happened to one other team since 1970. Most in New England predicted a collapse after Brady went down. They may have finished 16-0 once again with Tom Brady, but we will never know. All we know is that a second string quarterback did the unthinkable and they won 11 games with Matt Cassel and an injury depleted defense.

Unless the Dolphins go on to win some games in the post-season, there is no reason to rue the outcome. I leave you with Barack Abdul-Ali's brilliant analysis, which is mostly right except for the myth that I don't own a Patriots t-shirt. The Pats did better than anyone predicted -- except for a few sage experts -- as Barack points out here. In the meantime, he deserves to be excited about the Dolphins no matter what the outcome of the Raven's game in week 17.

Who knew Jay would be so right?

"11-5 that was my prediction at the beginning of the year when Brady went down." - Jay Rogers

It was uncanny. The Pats actually ended the season at 11-5. Good job, Jay!

Too bad you were wrong on your prediction for the Dolphins.

"They can't do better than 6-10 (and I'm being really generous)". - Jay Rogers

Sadly, you were wrong by 5 games. No doubt the number of sacks endured by Matt Cassel had you feeling a bit woozy this year, so I'll be nice about it.

Okay, no I won't.

The Dolphins single-handedly removed the stinkin' Jets and the Patriots from the playoffs yesterday in their masterful triumph over the stinkin NY Jets. A 2-for-1 Christmas gift for everyone in Miami. Even the Bills were thankful for the Fins this year as they didn't want to see the Pats take the AFC East title again.

Now, the Jets are in complete disarray as we own their prior quarterback who ended the season as the most accurate passer in the league and even surpassed Dan Marino's single-season accuracy rating to win a franchise record. They fired Mangini today (rightfully so). As did the Browns fire Crennel. Both were Belichick assistant coaches and got their jobs on Belichick's coat tails.

How much longer will the Pats hold onto video-gate Belichick who has done nothing since his cheatin' ways have been exposed? Hard to say. But when you look at the abysmal success his assistant coaches had as NFL head coaches, you wonder how much of the Pats prior success was Belichick's "inside information" and how much was just good coaching.

But we can all agree that there is a good chance that normalcy has returned to the AFC East this year. The Pats will slowly fade into a QB controversy and, eventually, oblivion. The Jets are falling back to their healthy 3rd place as they usually have.

And the Bills stand every chance of being a major contender next year - with the Fins too of course.

As Matt would say, "I await your pathetic sophomoric reply", but in actuality, I don't. I'm patiently awaiting next week's playoff game against the Ravens in Miami instead. I hold no illusions, but I'm hopeful.

As for Jay and his beloved Pats, for which he owns no clothing for, the good news is he can stock up this year as there could very well be bargain-bin prices on Patriots jerseys right now. Stock up, Jay. That's what I did last year when the Fins were 1-15 last year before they accomplished the greatest single-season turnaround in NFL history this year and possibly all of sports. Not counting, of course, the lame Red Sox who did a pretty good job of finally winning a championship after losing 87 years in a row.

The other good news for the Pats is that they "can rest," as Belichick said yesterday. Yes, resting ... that's what football is all about, right? Relaxing, kicking back, watching the tide roll in. Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't that the very attitude that created the situation in which Brady didn't have to practice or play in pre-season this year and which quite likely contributed to his injury??? Oh well ... no use in crying over spilt quarterbacks. The Pats have a star quartersack, er, I mean back, in Matt Cassel now so they don't need that old washed up Brady anymore anyway. Or do they? Last I heard this morning there is a chance Brady might not be well into middle of next season!

So, go ahead Jay ... vote for the Ravens next week. I won't mind. But just remember how far you've fallen when you find yourself, a purebred Bostonian, supporting the filthy Baltimore thugs. Even I would be supporting the Pats (and my beloved AFC East) if the Fins weren't in - unless of course the Jets were the division leader. I haven't lost all my marbles!

And be happy the Pats won an NFL record at least.... First team in NFL history to win 11 games and NOT make the playoffs! You can thank your lovely inner-conference record for that choke.

Have a nice off-season!

- Barack

Patriots Report Week 15

2008-12-21T15:49:00.000-08:00

I have to admit I was depressed by the Cowboys loss to the Ravens on Saturday night. I watched most of the game on NFL Network and had to suffer through the inept commentating. Despite the genius remarks of these pundits, Tony Romo played a great game. Had his defense not let us down, the Pats would be one win away from at least a wild card spot.

I thought this was the best chance the Pats had for the wild card. The Cowboys "would've, could've, should've" put the Ravens' post season hopes to rest about three or four times. But at this moment it is too painful to look back at that travesty. I wondered several times if this was really the NFL. That these two teams are playoff contenders is beyond me.

I predicted too that the Dolphins would commit the unlikely feat of falling to the 2-12 Kansas City Chiefs. You see, this pretender won its now 10-5 record by eking out these narrow wins over awful teams. I thought the emperor's new clothes would be exposed by the worst Chiefs team since the mythical Charlestown hockey team of the same moniker. The Fish were due for a fall to a bad team, but to no avail.

The hopes of the good guys now rested squarely on the shoulders of the 2-12 Seattle Seahawks defeating Brett Favre and "that other team from New Jersey." I wasn't too optimistic. These are the Seahawks. You know a bottom tier team when you look at its website and you can find its 2009 Cheerleader Calendar more easily than their stats or standings.

This was first time, and hopefully the last, that I "watched" a whole Jets game on NFL Game Center on the Internet. Amazingly the Jets were held to a field goal in Seattle. It almost seemed like a non-game that was over way too fast. I'll have to see the highlights to believe it. Brett Favre is supposedly good for at least 1 TD againstt a 2-12 team isn't he? Maybe it was something in the coffee?

So on to next week. I won't be presumptuous in assuming the Pats will defeat the Bills in Buffalo as a foregone conclusion. Let's just say I like the Pats' chances given the way Cassel played today -- passing for 345 yards and for three touchdowns.

But this is what it comes down to ...

There is little or no chance the Ravens are losing their last game. The Pats have to win and the Jets have to beat the Dolphins. The Pats can finish with the best record in the AFC East and take on Indy or Baltimore in the first round.

But how to predict what will happen? Obviously the Jets have to be favored. Both teams are stinking pretty bad right now. The game is in New York. The Jets are still playing to keep their hopes alive. Little justice would prevail by having one of these wannabes present the AFC East in the playoffs. And since 1990, when the league started sending six teams per conference to the playoffs, no 11-5 team has missed the post season. Simple mathematical probabilities will prevail.

So come week 17, I see Matt Cassel's Patriots peaking in time for the post season as dangerous division leaders favored to advance to the AFC Championship.

This season has been the most exciting and unlikely since 2001. Odd too, in that New England fans will be rooting for the Jets to win a game next week.

Ugghhh!

Now I know what Longfellow Deeds felt like:

Mr. Deeds:
You guys football fans? The Pats could take the conference this year. The Dolphins are overrated and the Jets are choke artists.

Helicopter pilot:
I wouldn't say that, Mr. Deeds.

Mr. Deeds:
Just Deeds. Why is that, though?

Helicopter pilot:
You own the Jets, Deeds.

Mr. Deeds:
I do? That sucks. I hope they don't play the Pats in the playoffs or I'll have to kill myself.

Are the Bruins next?

2008-12-19T05:05:00.000-08:00

Six parades in nine years

Boston Globe: 73 percent of Pats fans think team will make playoffs

2008-12-17T06:41:00.000-08:00

In a dramatic turnaround of hope, 73 percent of New England Patriots fans responded to a Boston Globe survey predicting the team would make the playoffs either as a wildcard team (60.6%) or winning the division outright (27.2%).

This is a dramatic turnaround from recent weeks when most fans thought the Pats had no chance. Why the reason for the change of heart?

First, the Pats have to win their remaining their remaining games. After seeing the performance of the offense in past weeks, most fans think they can beat the Cardinals at home and the Bills on the road.

Second, the Pats still need some help. Assuming the Pats finish 11-5, either the Baltimore Ravens have to lose a game, which would yield the last wilcard spot, or the Jets and the Dolphins both have go no better than 1-1 in the next two weeks.

Here is a graphic if you want to see for yourself.

Are the Celtics too good?

2008-12-16T09:02:00.000-08:00

There was an interesting quote by Ray Allen in the Boston Globe today:

Teams want to win. This team had an effect on the rest of the league. After
all the moves that Danny made over the offseason to get all the guys here and
win the championship, teams were like, "Hey, maybe we can get into the feeding
frenzy over the summer with some guys that we know can play and can bring us to
the Promised Land." It's a disappointment. It's the expectation. Most teams can
be in rebuilding mode and you got the same coach and a terrible record, but
you're building your young players. When you bring in high-dollar players and
you're in the bottom of your division, it's a big load on you.

- Ray Allen

Whatever the reason, the NBA is the now the most lopsided of the four major sports. In baseball, teams such as Tampa Bay have shown us anything is possible year to year. The race in the NFL is the most interesting it has been in years. Hockey, of course, is as unpredictable as ever with 16 teams going to the playoffs. Baseball is the only pure championship series with only six teams qualifying after 162 games. No mediocre teams make it to the postseason. The same isn't true in the other three sports.

Nothing is like the lopsided dominance of the Celtics in the NBA. Allen's quote may seem arrogant to some, but his thinking belies the fact that for the best and the worst teams, the season's outcome is determined before it starts.

You may have seen the interesting taped conversation between the great Bill Russell and Kevin Garnett in which the legend tells the new Celtics superstar that he is going to win a few championships in a Celtics' jersey. At the time, I thought it was an incredibly presumptuous prediction, but then after last year's dominant win against a favored team, the Celts look like they are going to be the perennial favorite for at least the next few years.

With a 23-2 record and a .920 winning percentage, it looks like they are on pace for the best record ever, currently held by the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls at 72-10. This is one of the most difficult team records in sports to break. But it comes a year after the Patriots broke the record for most regular season wins.

Who knows how much further it can go beyond that? The Celtics have all the right pieces and can afford to build from the bottom up while this run lasts.

Patriots playoff chances

2008-12-15T04:51:00.000-08:00

I won't go in depth into the complicated tie-breaker scenario for the Pats. There are six teams vying for four playoff spots. Every other team in contention, the Jets, Dolphins, Colts and Ravens have better records either in the division or the conference. Assuming the Pats finish 11-5, they still need one of these teams to lose a game (or two in the Colts' case) to eke out a Wild-Card spot.

In short, the best chance the pats have is to finish 11-5, which they have a good chance of doing. the Pats' post-season hope rests on the outcome of the Cowboys-Ravens game next Saturday. If the Ravens lose in a well-matched contest, the Pats are assured a wild card spot if they finish 11-5.

Other scenarios have either the Colts losing two -- or the Jets and Dolphins losing one each -- or either the Jets or Dolphins losing two in a row, which is much more unlikely given the matchups. If your a Pats fan, the Cowboys-Ravens game could be the whole season.

Can the Pats win the AFC East?

2008-12-12T09:29:00.000-08:00

The following post is from "Sorting Out the Playoff Picture" by Sean Crowe of SportsCentral.org. He spells out a scenario/prediction that I agree with entirely. So rather that reinvent the wheel, I post a lengthy quote from his article. Of course, come week 17, we may have to eat our words.

The Patriots, Jets, and Dolphins are currently tied at 8-5.

All three teams can't run the table, as the Dolphins and Jets play each other in Week 17. If either the Dolphins or Jets run the table, they win the AFC East.

The Patriots, even if they win out, lose the tiebreakers with both teams.

The Dolphins play the 49ers at home, then the Chiefs and Jets on the road. The Jets have the Bills at home, Seattle on the road, then finish with Miami at home.

If both the Jets and Dolphins falter, the Patriots need the beat the Raiders on the road, the Cardinals at home, then the Bills in Buffalo.

The Dolphins and Jets both have easy schedules. The AFC East will almost certainly come down to week 17. The winner of the Jets/Dolphins game will likely win the AFC East. The Patriots, as it stands right now, will likely be the odd man out.

Assuming that plays out, the AFC playoffs would look like this:

1) Titans (bye)
2) Steelers (bye)
3) Broncos
4) Dolphins or Jets
5) Colts
6) Ravens

Of course, this entire scenario is preposterous. Were this to happen, the 11-win Patriots and the 10-win Jets or Dolphins would both miss the playoffs. That has never happened before. Ever. In NFL history.

A 10-win team could miss the playoffs. An 11-win team might miss the playoffs. But both an 11 and 10-win team missing the playoffs in the same season in the same conference?

Not likely.

The 1985 Denver Broncos won 11 games and missed the playoffs. Since then, every 11-win team has made the playoffs. As a matter of fact, only four 10-win teams have missed the playoffs since 1990.

My point is, there's no way the AFC is going to play out the way the schedule would suggest it's going to. Something strange is going to happen. It always does.

With that in mind, here's how I see it playing out.

The Ravens will go 2-1 down the stretch. More than enough to lock up the final wild card spot.

The Jets are playing terrible right now. They also have yet to win a game on the West Coast this season. They have to travel to Seattle the week before their huge showdown against the Dolphins. It's a classic "Brett Favre throws a bad pick and we lose a game we never should have lost" game for the Jets.

The Dolphins have the same scenario on the road against the Chiefs. Kansas City is a tough place to play, even against the two-win 2008 Chiefs. The Dolphins will lose, tying them with the Jets at 9-6 going into the final week of the season.

The Patriots will beat the Raiders. They'll beat the Cardinals, mostly because the game's in Foxboro.

The AFC East will come down to this: if the Patriots beat the Bills, they win the AFC East. If they lose, then winner of the Jets/Dolphins game wins the AFC East.

And if we've learned anything these past few years, it's that the Patriots don't lose big games in December.

And the revised standings will look something like this:

1) Titans (bye)
2) Steelers (bye)
3) Broncos
4) Patriots
5) Colts
6) Ravens

Which means, once again, we'll get Patriots/Colts in the playoffs.

Think I'm wrong? Post your AFC predictions in the comments.

The Bruins are wicked awesome this year too!

2008-12-11T05:00:00.000-08:00

Here's another tidbit that has slipped under our noses ever so unexpectedly. After narrowly making the playoffs in 2008 and losing in an exciting and valiantly played series with Montreal (Boston's most hated rival and hockey's reigning dynasty) -- the Bruins have quietly gone 19-4-4 -- the best record in the Eastern conference and second in the NHL only to the San Jose Sharks. (Yes, I know hockey has changed a lot since the 1970s Stanley Cup Championship team!)

Yes, Boston's erstwhile two most reliable teams to make the playoffs are ramping it up again!

"It's the Broons and the Celts in 2009!"

Yet always the eternal pessimists, Boston fans are just waiting for the other shoe to drop. And one can not help counting the "if onlys." An "ought've" tackle in the fourth quarter of the Superbowl, one more win against Tampa Bay in the ALCS, a healthy Brady in 2008 ... and what could be?

But is the Golden Era of Boston Sports over? No, not by a long shot!