"I’ve been in that position before, having to come off injuries, and I believe he’s going to come out smoking, I really do believe it. He’s going to want to prove something, and I don’t care what happened in the preseason, the preseason is overrated. When he comes out there for the first game, he’ll be ready and rolling."
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Dan Marino on Tom Brady
"I’ve been in that position before, having to come off injuries, and I believe he’s going to come out smoking, I really do believe it. He’s going to want to prove something, and I don’t care what happened in the preseason, the preseason is overrated. When he comes out there for the first game, he’ll be ready and rolling."
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Patriots Report: 2009/2010 AFC East Predictions
In the last two years, I correctly predicted the exact number of games the Patriots would win in the regular season. If I were a gambling man, I could be a millionaire by now.
I annoyed Dolphins and Bills fans by sending them a "Weekly Patriots Report" (which was often about the Celtics, Bruins and Red Sox as well) proclaiming the just and rightful superiority of all sports New England. I went against all conventional wisdom and predicted the Pats would go undefeated in the regular season in 2007 (of course I said that in 2006 as well). I also claimed the Giants are rightfully the "New Jersey Giants" because they are the only team in the world (with the exception of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) that has the audacity not to name themselves after where they play. And now I humbly have to admit that I didn't see them or the hapless Dolphins coming.
This year is going to be different. If February to December 2008 was Paradise Lost, 2009/2010 will be Paradise Restored. Mark it down. My public record for the regular season is impeccable up to this point. I began this blog for this very reason. Without the few friends who received my weekly email report, there would be no one to confirm my uncanny accuracy. If only I had started this blog two years ago, I might have gathered quite a following by now.
But if you are a gambler, don't listen to anything I say. I can't be perfect forever.
Or so the theory goes.
2009/2010 AFC East Predictions
People think the AFC East is a pretty strong division, but the results last year were skewed by two losses of the Patriots to New York and Miami. This season, the schedule is tougher for the Jets and the Dolphins, but easier for the Patriots. Each team in the AFC East plays four very tough teams in the NFC South and the AFC South. I see these as almost sure losses for every team in the AFC East except the Pats.
New England 13-3
The Pats will better be two games better than last year's 11-5 mark. In fact, I am tempted to put them at 16-0 again, but realism tells me that even the best team is going to lose a few. There is a likely chance that they will post similar offensive numbers as 2007/08. The big question is their defense. But barring injuries, they should be considered a lock for the post-season.
Buffalo 9-7
I see Buffalo as under-performing last season mainly due to injuries late in the season. They'll take three of six games within their own division and will manage to win five more somewhere else. And they'll have a shot at the Wild Card. Whoo Hoo!
Miami 7-9
Ironically, their Achilles' heel is going to be their unexpected success of last year. After finishing last in 2007, the Dolphins played two last place teams in 2008. It's also telling that they eked out narrow wins in several games against truly bad teams. This year, they will lose big against two allotted first place opponents. They also will drop both games to the Pats who will be hyped up for revenge. Everyone has Miami as the outside threat to win the AFC East. But with the uncertain quarterback situation, I think I am being generous to predict only 9 losses.
New York 7-9
Sadly, the Jets handed the Dolphins the division in the last game against Miami last season. When they realized they were mathematically eliminated, they turned a game they still had a shot to win into a joke. I don't believe in karma in sports, but I am making an exception here.
Patriots Schedule Schedule 2009
I'll make a prediction about the first game later this week. Buffalo at home should be a blow-out. But by how much? I'll tell you later. Then week by week, I'll give a final score prediction. For now, I've marked the four tough games I think they could lose in red. I think they'll win at least one of these and have no problem with the rest of their schedule. As I wrote above, these are four very tough teams. But then again, the Pats will be favored in at least three of these games because they play at home.
Something bothers me about the away game against Houston at the very end. If the Pats have their seeding all wrapped up by that date, it could mean a game to start their secondary.
Week 1 -- 9/14 -- vs. Buf
Week 2 -- 9/20 -- @ NYJ
Week 3 -- 9/27 -- vs. Atl
Week 4 -- 10/4 -- vs. Bal
Week 5 -- 10/11 -- @ Den
Week 6 -- 10/18 -- vs. Ten
Week 7 -- 10/25 -- @ TB
Week 8 -- Bye Week
Week 9 -- 11/8 -- vs. Mia
10 -- 11/15 @ Ind
11 -- 11/22 -- vs. NYJ
12 -- 11/30 -- @ NO
13 -- 12/6 -- @ Mia
14 -- 12/13 -- vs. Car
15 -- 12/20 -- @ Buf
16 -- 12/27 -- vs. Jac
17 -- 1/3 -- @ Hou
I annoyed Dolphins and Bills fans by sending them a "Weekly Patriots Report" (which was often about the Celtics, Bruins and Red Sox as well) proclaiming the just and rightful superiority of all sports New England. I went against all conventional wisdom and predicted the Pats would go undefeated in the regular season in 2007 (of course I said that in 2006 as well). I also claimed the Giants are rightfully the "New Jersey Giants" because they are the only team in the world (with the exception of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) that has the audacity not to name themselves after where they play. And now I humbly have to admit that I didn't see them or the hapless Dolphins coming.
This year is going to be different. If February to December 2008 was Paradise Lost, 2009/2010 will be Paradise Restored. Mark it down. My public record for the regular season is impeccable up to this point. I began this blog for this very reason. Without the few friends who received my weekly email report, there would be no one to confirm my uncanny accuracy. If only I had started this blog two years ago, I might have gathered quite a following by now.
But if you are a gambler, don't listen to anything I say. I can't be perfect forever.
Or so the theory goes.
2009/2010 AFC East Predictions
People think the AFC East is a pretty strong division, but the results last year were skewed by two losses of the Patriots to New York and Miami. This season, the schedule is tougher for the Jets and the Dolphins, but easier for the Patriots. Each team in the AFC East plays four very tough teams in the NFC South and the AFC South. I see these as almost sure losses for every team in the AFC East except the Pats.
New England 13-3
The Pats will better be two games better than last year's 11-5 mark. In fact, I am tempted to put them at 16-0 again, but realism tells me that even the best team is going to lose a few. There is a likely chance that they will post similar offensive numbers as 2007/08. The big question is their defense. But barring injuries, they should be considered a lock for the post-season.
Buffalo 9-7
I see Buffalo as under-performing last season mainly due to injuries late in the season. They'll take three of six games within their own division and will manage to win five more somewhere else. And they'll have a shot at the Wild Card. Whoo Hoo!
Miami 7-9
Ironically, their Achilles' heel is going to be their unexpected success of last year. After finishing last in 2007, the Dolphins played two last place teams in 2008. It's also telling that they eked out narrow wins in several games against truly bad teams. This year, they will lose big against two allotted first place opponents. They also will drop both games to the Pats who will be hyped up for revenge. Everyone has Miami as the outside threat to win the AFC East. But with the uncertain quarterback situation, I think I am being generous to predict only 9 losses.
New York 7-9
Sadly, the Jets handed the Dolphins the division in the last game against Miami last season. When they realized they were mathematically eliminated, they turned a game they still had a shot to win into a joke. I don't believe in karma in sports, but I am making an exception here.
Patriots Schedule Schedule 2009
I'll make a prediction about the first game later this week. Buffalo at home should be a blow-out. But by how much? I'll tell you later. Then week by week, I'll give a final score prediction. For now, I've marked the four tough games I think they could lose in red. I think they'll win at least one of these and have no problem with the rest of their schedule. As I wrote above, these are four very tough teams. But then again, the Pats will be favored in at least three of these games because they play at home.
Something bothers me about the away game against Houston at the very end. If the Pats have their seeding all wrapped up by that date, it could mean a game to start their secondary.
Week 1 -- 9/14 -- vs. Buf
Week 2 -- 9/20 -- @ NYJ
Week 3 -- 9/27 -- vs. Atl
Week 4 -- 10/4 -- vs. Bal
Week 5 -- 10/11 -- @ Den
Week 6 -- 10/18 -- vs. Ten
Week 7 -- 10/25 -- @ TB
Week 8 -- Bye Week
Week 9 -- 11/8 -- vs. Mia
10 -- 11/15 @ Ind
11 -- 11/22 -- vs. NYJ
12 -- 11/30 -- @ NO
13 -- 12/6 -- @ Mia
14 -- 12/13 -- vs. Car
15 -- 12/20 -- @ Buf
16 -- 12/27 -- vs. Jac
17 -- 1/3 -- @ Hou
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
New England Patriots favored to win Superbowl LXIV
Odds makers have been saying since the second week of February that the Pats are the odds on favorites to win Superbowl LXIV.
Several "firsts" will occur.
Miami will become the first metro-area in the United States to have hosted 10 Superbowls.
This will be the first Super Bowl telecast solely digitally.
This will be the first Superbowl to use four different Roman numerals.
I am sure there are many more records and "firsts" that will be relevant to the Patriots team, but I will post them as we get into this promising season.
(I haven't posted for a while, but with the Red Sox in playoff contention, the Pats, Celts and Broons all poised for playoff runs, I'll need to get back to writing this secondary blog with a little more seriousness. Around World Series time, I'll write a review of Lost Son of Havana and prove once and for all why it is a travesty that Luis Tiant is not in the Hall of Fame.)
Oh yeah, I almost forgot. Here are the odds:
New England Patriots 8/1
Dallas Cowboys 9/1
New York Giants 10/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 10/1
Indianapolis Colts 12/1
San Diego Chargers 12/1
Baltimore Ravens 14/1
Tennessee Titans 16/1
Carolina Panthers 18/1
Philadelphia Eagles 18/1
New Orleans Saints 20/1
Atlanta Falcons 25/1
Denver Broncos 25/1
Green Bay Packers 25/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 25/1
Minnesota Vikings 25/1
New York Jets 25/1
Arizona Cardinals 30/1
Chicago Bears 30/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30/1
Buffalo Bills 35/1
Houston Texans 35/1
Miami Dolphins 35/1
Washington Redskins 35/1
Seattle Seahawks 50/1
Cleveland Browns 55/1
Cincinnati Bengals 60/1
San Francisco 49ers 60/1
Oakland Raiders 75/1
St. Louis Rams 75/1
Detroit Lions 100/1
Kansas City Chiefs 100/1
Several "firsts" will occur.
Miami will become the first metro-area in the United States to have hosted 10 Superbowls.
This will be the first Super Bowl telecast solely digitally.
This will be the first Superbowl to use four different Roman numerals.
I am sure there are many more records and "firsts" that will be relevant to the Patriots team, but I will post them as we get into this promising season.
(I haven't posted for a while, but with the Red Sox in playoff contention, the Pats, Celts and Broons all poised for playoff runs, I'll need to get back to writing this secondary blog with a little more seriousness. Around World Series time, I'll write a review of Lost Son of Havana and prove once and for all why it is a travesty that Luis Tiant is not in the Hall of Fame.)
Oh yeah, I almost forgot. Here are the odds:
New England Patriots 8/1
Dallas Cowboys 9/1
New York Giants 10/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 10/1
Indianapolis Colts 12/1
San Diego Chargers 12/1
Baltimore Ravens 14/1
Tennessee Titans 16/1
Carolina Panthers 18/1
Philadelphia Eagles 18/1
New Orleans Saints 20/1
Atlanta Falcons 25/1
Denver Broncos 25/1
Green Bay Packers 25/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 25/1
Minnesota Vikings 25/1
New York Jets 25/1
Arizona Cardinals 30/1
Chicago Bears 30/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30/1
Buffalo Bills 35/1
Houston Texans 35/1
Miami Dolphins 35/1
Washington Redskins 35/1
Seattle Seahawks 50/1
Cleveland Browns 55/1
Cincinnati Bengals 60/1
San Francisco 49ers 60/1
Oakland Raiders 75/1
St. Louis Rams 75/1
Detroit Lions 100/1
Kansas City Chiefs 100/1
Sunday, May 31, 2009
SOTOMAYOR'S Bias for the New York Yankees
from Human Events:
I support the idea of nominating a woman or a hispanic to the U.S. Supreme Court, but not this one, not Judge Sonia Sotomayor. And she's so biased, that I'll go out on a limb to predict the main reason she won't be confirmed:
As a native of South Bronx, Sotomayor's hidden home-town bias became manifest in her love for the New York Yankees, judicially favoring her "Bronx Bombers" over teams from all other cities. No kidding! When ruling to end the 1995 baseball strike, she sided with the player's union against team owners (who sought parity among all teams with an talent-sharing salary cap). Instead Sotomayor created bias in favor of rich teams who can afford to buy up all the good free agents. So when the New York Yankees hogged 4 titles and 6 pennants in the 8 years after her ruling, with payrolls averaging three times most other team salaries, you can blame Sotomayor for creating that competitive imbalance. I understand why Yankees fans might celebrate her promotion to the Supreme Court, but baseball fans from all other cities should complain loudly against her confirmation!
I support the idea of nominating a woman or a hispanic to the U.S. Supreme Court, but not this one, not Judge Sonia Sotomayor. And she's so biased, that I'll go out on a limb to predict the main reason she won't be confirmed:
As a native of South Bronx, Sotomayor's hidden home-town bias became manifest in her love for the New York Yankees, judicially favoring her "Bronx Bombers" over teams from all other cities. No kidding! When ruling to end the 1995 baseball strike, she sided with the player's union against team owners (who sought parity among all teams with an talent-sharing salary cap). Instead Sotomayor created bias in favor of rich teams who can afford to buy up all the good free agents. So when the New York Yankees hogged 4 titles and 6 pennants in the 8 years after her ruling, with payrolls averaging three times most other team salaries, you can blame Sotomayor for creating that competitive imbalance. I understand why Yankees fans might celebrate her promotion to the Supreme Court, but baseball fans from all other cities should complain loudly against her confirmation!
Monday, April 27, 2009
Ellsbury's Straight Steal of Home
It was the first steal of home for Boston with no other runners attempting to steal since Jeff Frye did it on June 4, 1999, on an attempted squeeze bunt. Before that you have to go all the way back to Billy Hatcher on April 22, 1994 for a straight steal of home by a Red Sox player. A straight steal of home -- an attempt to steal with no other players in motion, such as a double steal or a missed bunt attempt -- is a feat that is about as rare as a no-hitter.
Then to cap off an almost perfect week, it was the Red Sox' tenth straight win. The Bruins just took four straight from their hated rivals -- l'empire mauvais -- the Montreal Canadiens. Only a double overtime Celtics loss marred this remarkable week in this Golden Age of Boston Sports.
Monday, April 20, 2009
Patriots Day Report
I grew up in Framingham where the famed Boston Marathon zig-zagged north from Hopkington along Waverly Street until it passed through Natick. I used to ride my bicycle to a spot about five miles into the Marathon on Patriots Day when I was in high school. Although only Marathon runners were supposed to be in the race, many people would jump in along the route. Spectators used to ride their bicycles along side the runners too. Until they got more stringent about this a few years ago (remember Rosie Ruiz?) the tail end of the race always looked like a sideshow with many colorful characters.
One day it was drizzling and I stood near a place in the road where train tracks crossed diagonally at an acute angle with the street. The roads in New England of course have frost heaves and this railroad track was a bit hazardous. I remember watching bike after bike hit those tracks that cruelly grabbed the front wheel forcing the cyclists to slide sideways along the rail until they fell over.
We'd yell, "Watch out for the tracks!"
Then "CRASH!"
After a while it became comically tragic -- a real life slapstick reel.
On a typical Patriots Day, the Red Sox play a morning game at 11 AM, then the crowd spills out along Commonwealth Avenue to watch the end of the Marathon. The Celtics will play a postseason game in the Garden at night this year and the Bruins will try for their third win in the first round of their playoff series in Montreal.
Four monumental sports events in one day. What other city can boast that?
On a related note, I have to point out that no one city has ever had three major league sports teams win championships within a year's time. Boston has a chance to have all four of its major league teams -- basketball, hockey, baseball and football -- win a world championship. It's unlikely, but plausible. We'd be happy with one, ecstatic with two. If Boston wins three you'll never hear the end of it. Four and the city spontaneously combusts with revelry never to recover.
Here I will rate the chances of the four teams.
Celtics -- Chances are now looking slim here. Although I am certain they can come back to beat the Bulls, without Kevin Garnett, they will be lucky to make it past the second round. But have the Celts ever gotten lucky before? If they get to the Eastern Conference Finals, then all bets are off and anything can happen. If they can steal a game on the road, then they play three games in the Garden where that leprechaun lives.
Red Sox -- Fair to good. They have a deep well-balanced team -- the best bullpen and starting pitching in their division. They are 28 million under budget for player salaries this year after jettisoning Manny. They can afford to go out and get some offense and a starting shortstop. If the Yankees and the Devil Rays (I still can't believe I am saying that in the same breath) were not in the same division, they'd be a shoe in for the postseason. But even with a great team, it's going to be a three way dog fight.
Patriots -- Very good. After a difficult first half of the season, the Patriots have a cakewalk of a schedule. They reloaded with some quality players and should be much better than the 11-5 team that narrowly lost to the Dolphins last season. How much better? If they can go 6-0 in the first part of the season, you'll be hearing "undefeated" predictions from me again.
Bruins -- Good to excellent. They are arguably the best team in the NHL, second only San Diego in points. They have the best defense and are playing like a team that really wants it after a 36-year drought. Even without the four team miracle, a Bruins championship would be the icing on the cake of a remarkable decade.
One day it was drizzling and I stood near a place in the road where train tracks crossed diagonally at an acute angle with the street. The roads in New England of course have frost heaves and this railroad track was a bit hazardous. I remember watching bike after bike hit those tracks that cruelly grabbed the front wheel forcing the cyclists to slide sideways along the rail until they fell over.
We'd yell, "Watch out for the tracks!"
Then "CRASH!"
After a while it became comically tragic -- a real life slapstick reel.
On a typical Patriots Day, the Red Sox play a morning game at 11 AM, then the crowd spills out along Commonwealth Avenue to watch the end of the Marathon. The Celtics will play a postseason game in the Garden at night this year and the Bruins will try for their third win in the first round of their playoff series in Montreal.
Four monumental sports events in one day. What other city can boast that?
On a related note, I have to point out that no one city has ever had three major league sports teams win championships within a year's time. Boston has a chance to have all four of its major league teams -- basketball, hockey, baseball and football -- win a world championship. It's unlikely, but plausible. We'd be happy with one, ecstatic with two. If Boston wins three you'll never hear the end of it. Four and the city spontaneously combusts with revelry never to recover.
Here I will rate the chances of the four teams.
Celtics -- Chances are now looking slim here. Although I am certain they can come back to beat the Bulls, without Kevin Garnett, they will be lucky to make it past the second round. But have the Celts ever gotten lucky before? If they get to the Eastern Conference Finals, then all bets are off and anything can happen. If they can steal a game on the road, then they play three games in the Garden where that leprechaun lives.
Red Sox -- Fair to good. They have a deep well-balanced team -- the best bullpen and starting pitching in their division. They are 28 million under budget for player salaries this year after jettisoning Manny. They can afford to go out and get some offense and a starting shortstop. If the Yankees and the Devil Rays (I still can't believe I am saying that in the same breath) were not in the same division, they'd be a shoe in for the postseason. But even with a great team, it's going to be a three way dog fight.
Patriots -- Very good. After a difficult first half of the season, the Patriots have a cakewalk of a schedule. They reloaded with some quality players and should be much better than the 11-5 team that narrowly lost to the Dolphins last season. How much better? If they can go 6-0 in the first part of the season, you'll be hearing "undefeated" predictions from me again.
Bruins -- Good to excellent. They are arguably the best team in the NHL, second only San Diego in points. They have the best defense and are playing like a team that really wants it after a 36-year drought. Even without the four team miracle, a Bruins championship would be the icing on the cake of a remarkable decade.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
The Bird Dies - New England Mourns
If you grew up in eastern Massachusetts in the 1970s, you idolized "the Bird." No, not that Bird ... Mark Fidrych, the Detroit Tigers' Rookie of the Year sensation in 1976, who sort of resembled Sesame Street's Big Bird and talked to himself on the mound, leading to rumors that he was "telling the baseball what to do."He went 19-9 as a rookie, leading the American League in earned run average (2.34) and complete games (24). He was the starting pitcher for the AL in the All-Star Game, won the AL Rookie of the Year Award, and finished second to the Orioles' Jim Palmer in the AL Cy Young voting. He did everything all out. No major league pitcher has anything close to 20 complete games anymore. In those days, pitchers were not coddled and paced by management. So his career was unfortunately cut short when he suffered arm injuries.
Although he played for the Tigers, he was a hero in my home town because Northboro is the town just to the northwest of Framingham (just as Doug Flutie's Natick is the town to the southeast). I can remember my step-brother claiming he pitched against him, never minding the fact that Fidrych was five years older than him. Older step-brothers!
Likewise, very few people in Framingham had any idea who Flutie was until he threw that pass in 1984 -- although some of my classmates actually did play against Flutie.
Mark Fidrych played a season or two for the Pawtucket Red Sox, but could never break back into the big leagues. He died yesterday in a truck accident on his farm. He was 54. By all accounts he lived out the rest of his life as a "regular guy" in rural Northboro.
The Boston Globe has an excellent article today on The Bird.
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