Last week's prediction.
I predicted - Pats 28 Falcons 14
Final score - Pats 26 Falcons 16
In my AFC East 2009/2010 preview, I wrote that in order to go to go 13-3, the Patriots would have to win one of four tough games, the Falcons being one of them. The unexpected loss to the Jets made me change my mind. The Ravens I did not count on being so good, so I am now reversing this one as well.
THIS WEEK
Ravens 21
Patriots 20
I'll admit this is a tough one. I haven't predicted that the Pats would lose in over two years. I've been right 29 out of 35 times. But this one has been nagging at me. I just don't like this match up at this time.
I didn't see the Ravens as being such a strong team, but they are better than the Pats at this point in the season. Their defense has been stellar and Tom Brady isn't clicking on all cylinders yet. So I must predict a loss.
The Jets will probably win against New Orleans, which means that the Pats will be down two games come Monday.
Ouch!
Two things could reverse that scenario.
1. The Pats defense, which has been much better than expected, could hold the Ravens to one touchdown.
2. Brady could have his inevitable break-out game.
That's all they have to do. Hold the opposition to one touchdown per game and with "Brady being Brady," they'll go undefeated all the way through Superbowl XLIV.
But a loss tomorrow is not the end of the season. This is going to be a classic and exciting New England team that will mature and improve as the season wears on.
Friday, October 2, 2009
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Star Wars Part VII - How The East Was Bought
It is a dark day for the Republic ...
The Dark Lord's son, Hank Steinvader
has opened the vast treasury of the Empire
and has refitted his fleet with twice as much
fire-power as the Republican forces. But is Evil
ever truly a match for the light side of the Force?
A beleaguered Republican army has vowed to fight!
With his courageous pilots, Beckett and Lester, the last
Jedi, Daisuke, leads his faithful droids, P3DR0A and UUU! -
and two ancient yet resilient Wookie clones - Papi and Knuckleball.
Before a last desperate assault against Death Star X, our brave heroes
must defeat a formidable legion on the distant smog planet of the Angels ...
Payrolls and Championships
The two tier team payroll structure in baseball is a reality for teams who want to compete for a playoff spot in October. This year, there is a new category in the Yankees who still top the salary cap of $200,000 despite the recession. The bloated Evil Empire has just bought its 10th division title in 12 years despite failing to sell-out its overpriced box seats in the new Yankee Stadium, "the house that Hank built."
The stark fact remains that teams who want to make the playoffs must shell out at least $100,000 in player salaries, especially in the American League. The two notable exceptions this year are the Rockies and the Cardinals, two National League teams that reached the World Series three times in the past five years, the Rockies in 2007, and the Cardinals losing in 2004, but winning it all in 2005.
American League Playoff Teams
Eastern Division - New York Yankees
Central Division - Detroit Tigers or Minnesota Twins
Western Division - Los Angeles Angels
Wild Card - Boston Red Sox
National League Playoff Teams
Eastern Division - Philadelphia Phillies
Central Division - St. Louis Cardinals
Western Division - Los Angeles Dodgers
Wild Card - Colorado Rockies
2009 MLB payrolls
Yankees $201,449,289
Mets $135,773,988
Cubs $135,050,000
Red Sox $122,696,000
Tigers $115,085,145
Angels $113,709,000
Phillies $113,004,048
Astros $102,996,415
Dodgers $100,458,101
Mariners $98,904,167
Braves $96,726,167
White Sox $96,068,500
Cardinals $88,528,411
Giants $82,161,450
Indians $81,625,567
Blue Jays $80,993,657
Brewers $79,857,502
Rockies $75,201,000
D-backs $73,571,667
Reds $70,968,500
Royals $70,908,333
Rangers $68,646,023
Orioles $67,101,667
Twins $65,299,267
Rays $63,313,035
Athletics $62,310,000
Nationals $59,328,000
Pirates $48,743,000
Padres $42,796,700
Marlins $36,814,000
Mets $135,773,988
Cubs $135,050,000
Red Sox $122,696,000
Tigers $115,085,145
Angels $113,709,000
Phillies $113,004,048
Astros $102,996,415
Dodgers $100,458,101
Mariners $98,904,167
Braves $96,726,167
White Sox $96,068,500
Cardinals $88,528,411
Giants $82,161,450
Indians $81,625,567
Blue Jays $80,993,657
Brewers $79,857,502
Rockies $75,201,000
D-backs $73,571,667
Reds $70,968,500
Royals $70,908,333
Rangers $68,646,023
Orioles $67,101,667
Twins $65,299,267
Rays $63,313,035
Athletics $62,310,000
Nationals $59,328,000
Pirates $48,743,000
Padres $42,796,700
Marlins $36,814,000
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Patriots Report: Week 3
Not much time to do this one.
First, last week's prediction.
I predicted - Pats 28 Jets 14
Final score - Pats 9 Jets 16
Just three more touchdowns and I would have been right on! Amazing! Just one touchdown would have been nice.
THIS WEEK
Patriots 28
Falcons 14
I know you are thinking, "Hey wait a minute! That's the same score you predicted last week!"
The conventional wisdom is the Pats by 4 points. That is not going to happen in Foxboro. There is something to prove. The game could be described as a match-up of underachievers vs. overachievers.
Offensively, the Patriots look to many to be a shambles. I see this as the game where Tom Brady steps up with a little more quickness and precision. Four touchdowns easily.
Defensively, a lot has been made of the four major departures. I don't really see much of a difference in terms of stats. The Jets scored just one touchdown last week.
The most obvious adjustment they should make is running the ball a bit more. That ought to exploit an Atlanta team that is now without defensive tackle Jeria Perry.
The Pats haven't lost back-to-back games in 41 weeks. New England has won 15 straight regular-season games against NFC opponents going back to 2005. I tried to find the NFL record on that one to no avail. No doubt football expert Barack Abdul Ali will know that one off the top of his head. Barack!?
Here's an interesting trivia tidbit: According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the 2007 Patriots became the first American pro sports team to open a season with 18 straight victories in more than 100 years, dating back to baseball's Union Association in 1884.
First, last week's prediction.
I predicted - Pats 28 Jets 14
Final score - Pats 9 Jets 16
Just three more touchdowns and I would have been right on! Amazing! Just one touchdown would have been nice.
THIS WEEK
Patriots 28
Falcons 14
I know you are thinking, "Hey wait a minute! That's the same score you predicted last week!"
The conventional wisdom is the Pats by 4 points. That is not going to happen in Foxboro. There is something to prove. The game could be described as a match-up of underachievers vs. overachievers.
Offensively, the Patriots look to many to be a shambles. I see this as the game where Tom Brady steps up with a little more quickness and precision. Four touchdowns easily.
Defensively, a lot has been made of the four major departures. I don't really see much of a difference in terms of stats. The Jets scored just one touchdown last week.
The most obvious adjustment they should make is running the ball a bit more. That ought to exploit an Atlanta team that is now without defensive tackle Jeria Perry.
The Pats haven't lost back-to-back games in 41 weeks. New England has won 15 straight regular-season games against NFC opponents going back to 2005. I tried to find the NFL record on that one to no avail. No doubt football expert Barack Abdul Ali will know that one off the top of his head. Barack!?
Here's an interesting trivia tidbit: According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the 2007 Patriots became the first American pro sports team to open a season with 18 straight victories in more than 100 years, dating back to baseball's Union Association in 1884.
Sunday, September 20, 2009
"Yeah, but can Brady throw under pressure?"
I always like it when someone takes a professional athlete who is statistically the best in his position and says, "Yeah, but can he do this!"
There's an old Woody Allen movie in which the female lead is raving about some handsome, strong, perfect hero of a guy. Then wimpy-looking Woody asks, "But can he do this?" while doing a contorted dance movement that no one would ever need to do unless he had to.
That scene has been replayed in my mind countless times when after I wax poetic about the Patriots great achievements of this decade and then my friend Barack Abdul-Ali pulls out the meaningless sack statistic. Sacks are meaningful in any given game, just as interceptions, turnovers, quarterback hurries and third down conversions are meaningful. However, sacks are meaningful only if you can calculate ratios and outcomes, not simply raw numbers. The most sacked lifetime statistics belong to the greatest quarterbacks in history simply because they pass more often.
To put it more succinctly: Despite all of the hype, the defensive sack statistic on its own is a meaningless number, and only takes on real meaning when you put it into the context of pass attempts.
"Can he pass under pressure?" is another one. If a quarterback can always pass under pressure, it wouldn't be much pressure to speak of would it? It also ignores the ability of a quarterback to stand and throw more effectively in the pocket as if that is somehow a lesser achievement.
It's like saying that Ted Williams couldn't hit balls out of the strike zone or that Larry Bird couldn't slam dunk.
"The greatest passer in the game can't pass under pressure."
It's nonsense!
Sometimes I think these things are thrown at me just to see if I am paying attention.
What matters with Brady are the statistics at this point in his career, his winning percentage, the total number of games won, and the number of Conference Championships and Superbowl rings.
Two bright spots to today's game ...
You could just sum it up today's game saying the Jets played better defense and better offense. And just barely if you look at the game stats. It's a tough loss in a game that the good guys were favored to win, so that doesn't look good on the surface. It was due to Brady missing a lot of times when he normally connects a lot of times. But there are two bright spots.
1. Brady isn't going to have any more games this year without a single touchdown.
So with this one out of their system, it's off to the races! Just like last year when I said Matt Cassell was "going to be just fine" after he lost a few games -- (Oh great Barack Abdul-Ali, keeper of the archive, you can look that one up!) -- I am going to go way out on a limb here and say that Brady is going to be back to form really soon and we'll start seeing a few of those five to eight touchdown games again.
2. The Pats' defense, thought to be the weakest point of a solid team, also looked good.
Pat's fans are going to panic in the meantime. Although disappointing that Brady couldn't throw just one touchdown pass to tie the game -- like everyone was sure he would -- it isn't a concern in the grand scheme of the 14 games to come. It's just an anomaly.
There's an old Woody Allen movie in which the female lead is raving about some handsome, strong, perfect hero of a guy. Then wimpy-looking Woody asks, "But can he do this?" while doing a contorted dance movement that no one would ever need to do unless he had to.
That scene has been replayed in my mind countless times when after I wax poetic about the Patriots great achievements of this decade and then my friend Barack Abdul-Ali pulls out the meaningless sack statistic. Sacks are meaningful in any given game, just as interceptions, turnovers, quarterback hurries and third down conversions are meaningful. However, sacks are meaningful only if you can calculate ratios and outcomes, not simply raw numbers. The most sacked lifetime statistics belong to the greatest quarterbacks in history simply because they pass more often.
To put it more succinctly: Despite all of the hype, the defensive sack statistic on its own is a meaningless number, and only takes on real meaning when you put it into the context of pass attempts.
"Can he pass under pressure?" is another one. If a quarterback can always pass under pressure, it wouldn't be much pressure to speak of would it? It also ignores the ability of a quarterback to stand and throw more effectively in the pocket as if that is somehow a lesser achievement.
It's like saying that Ted Williams couldn't hit balls out of the strike zone or that Larry Bird couldn't slam dunk.
"The greatest passer in the game can't pass under pressure."
It's nonsense!
Sometimes I think these things are thrown at me just to see if I am paying attention.
What matters with Brady are the statistics at this point in his career, his winning percentage, the total number of games won, and the number of Conference Championships and Superbowl rings.
Two bright spots to today's game ...
You could just sum it up today's game saying the Jets played better defense and better offense. And just barely if you look at the game stats. It's a tough loss in a game that the good guys were favored to win, so that doesn't look good on the surface. It was due to Brady missing a lot of times when he normally connects a lot of times. But there are two bright spots.
1. Brady isn't going to have any more games this year without a single touchdown.
So with this one out of their system, it's off to the races! Just like last year when I said Matt Cassell was "going to be just fine" after he lost a few games -- (Oh great Barack Abdul-Ali, keeper of the archive, you can look that one up!) -- I am going to go way out on a limb here and say that Brady is going to be back to form really soon and we'll start seeing a few of those five to eight touchdown games again.
2. The Pats' defense, thought to be the weakest point of a solid team, also looked good.
Pat's fans are going to panic in the meantime. Although disappointing that Brady couldn't throw just one touchdown pass to tie the game -- like everyone was sure he would -- it isn't a concern in the grand scheme of the 14 games to come. It's just an anomaly.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Patriots Report: Week 2
LAST WEEK
I need to explain what happened in last week's prediction.
I predicted - Pats 38 Bills 21
Final score - Pats 25 Bills 24
I was off by two touchdowns. However, the Patriots were in the red zone twice and didn't score, which is something they rarely failed to do against Buffalo in the recent past, so the score easily could have been higher.
I was trying to decide if Tom Brady was just rusty in the first 57 minutes or if the Bills have better defense this year. In all, I think Buffalo is an improved team -- though one that New England could have beaten handily if Brady were in mid-season form. I am sticking with my prediction that the Bills will finish second and will have an outside shot at the wild card.
THIS WEEK
The Jets are underdogs on their own turf. Their response? "Let's embarrass them!" Bob Ryan has a fun commentary on the border wars below.
The official line is Pats by 4 points and a total of 45 points.
Four points? Give me a break! I think the point total is about accurate, but it will be the Pats by two touchdowns. With the cobwebs blown off, it should be an entertaining passing show for Brady as always.
Patriots 28
Jets 14
I need to explain what happened in last week's prediction.
I predicted - Pats 38 Bills 21
Final score - Pats 25 Bills 24
I was off by two touchdowns. However, the Patriots were in the red zone twice and didn't score, which is something they rarely failed to do against Buffalo in the recent past, so the score easily could have been higher.
I was trying to decide if Tom Brady was just rusty in the first 57 minutes or if the Bills have better defense this year. In all, I think Buffalo is an improved team -- though one that New England could have beaten handily if Brady were in mid-season form. I am sticking with my prediction that the Bills will finish second and will have an outside shot at the wild card.
THIS WEEK
The Jets are underdogs on their own turf. Their response? "Let's embarrass them!" Bob Ryan has a fun commentary on the border wars below.
The official line is Pats by 4 points and a total of 45 points.
Four points? Give me a break! I think the point total is about accurate, but it will be the Pats by two touchdowns. With the cobwebs blown off, it should be an entertaining passing show for Brady as always.
Patriots 28
Jets 14
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Patriots Report: Week 1
This is a hard one, but I'll go out on a limb. Patriots put 28 quick points on the board and sit Brady the second half. He is listed on the DL with a bad shoulder after all. More of a concern in the first few weeks than the knee. Bills come back to score three times in the second half. Once during garbage time. Pats fans panic over "shoddy defense." At the end of the day, Pats are the only undefeated team in the AFC East.
PATS - 38
BILLS - 21
PATS - 38
BILLS - 21
Dan Marino on Tom Brady
"I’ve been in that position before, having to come off injuries, and I believe he’s going to come out smoking, I really do believe it. He’s going to want to prove something, and I don’t care what happened in the preseason, the preseason is overrated. When he comes out there for the first game, he’ll be ready and rolling."
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