Patriots Report: Week 16

The Magic Number is 1!

Look for that exclamation point to to disappear if the Pats can't clinch the division with a win at home against the Jaguars on Sunday.

The goal for the next two weeks has to be, in Tom Brady's own words, "Finding some consistency" on offense. In the five games when the offense has been stellar, the Pats have looked like the sure winners of Superbowl XLVI.

And believe it or not, New England is now tied for the fourth best defense in the NFL.

The bottom line is that despite all the fan pessimism that has resulted from four really horrible losses this season, and only five really dominant wins, the Pats are still in a position to put it all together for a strong playoff run. There isn't a team in the conference that they cannot beat if they have all the parts working.

Really.

They can do it, but all cylinders need to be firing. I look at it this way. The defense has allowed 16.27 points per game on average. However, the offense has only scored 24.3 points per game. What they need to do is put up a couple of convincing two or three touchdown victories in the final two games to generate some good momentum going into January.

But first things first. Sewing up the division should look like this.

My prediction for week 16:


Pats: 31
Jags: 14

Patriots Report: Week 15

Last week I predicted:

Pats: 28
Panthers: 14

The Result:

Pats: 20
Panthers: 10

Okay, it's not as accurate as I can sometimes be, but neither is Tom Brady, although I do like the symmetry.

I had to watch last week's game in one of those wonderfully awful British pubs we have on every block on 192 between downtown Kissimmee and Clermont. Of course, no one was watching the Dolphins-Jaguars. It wasn't even on one of the TVs. But there were about 10 other New England fans hanging on every play and occassionally glancing at New Orleans and Indy. One of the Bostonians made the brilliant remark that the Patriots are in effect "playing 'possum" until the very end of the season when they will suddenly turn on the gas and play like our mighty heroes of the unforgotten past.

And yes, we do have 'possums in New England, so this guy might know what he is talking about. We tend to call them "opossums," however, which is actually their real name. And no New Englander has ever eaten possum fritters. Believe it or not, you redneck. We also have lots of "crayfish" in our lakes and streams, but we don't eat those either. We use them for bait when fishing for large mouth bass. So if you are inside the 495 beltway, don't go talking about "smokin' some crawdads." People are liable to get the wrong idea.

The "playing 'possum" analogy is a nice thought that even I with my steely logic have succumbed to on occassion in thinking about Brady's on-and-off "comeback." Whenever I do, I have to remind myself that this is the NFL. It's not a 200 meter race where the best runner just has to keep pace and then turn it on in the final stretch. Anything can happen in December.

My Prediction for week 15:

Pats 35
Bills 9

The game against the Bills is a no-brainer. They have to win. They have to pull out all the stops. They have to win big. The defense can't turn it off toward the end. Randy Moss has to catch everything he can get his fingertips on.

The Jets play the undefeated Colts in two weeks. So there is little hope of this mediocre team winning all of their final three. So the Pats have a game to give against New York.

The biggest pitfall, I hate to say, is Miami. If the Dolphins lose on Sunday, it's over. But if both teams win, it puts the Patriots in a scenario in which dropping even with Miami means losing the division once again via tie breakers. If New England falls even with Miami by losing to the Bills, then the Pats lose the "games within the division" tie-breaker.

If they win against the Bills, they still have to finish a game ahead of Miami to win the division. Once week 15 is in the bag, New England plays Jacksonville and Houston. A loss to either Jacksonville at home in two weeks or at Houston would be a disaster.

Here's why.

DIVISION RECORD

Pats ----- 3 wins - 2 losses - 1 TBD at Bills
Dolphins - 4 wins - 2 losses

Here I am assuming both teams win this week. The Pats impove to 9-5 and the Dolphins 8-6. But that will put them even in division record at season's end.

COMMON OPPONENTS

Then look here! Last week the Pats beat Carolina and the Dolphins beat Jacksonville. Let's say both teams win again this week.

Pats ----- 7 wins - 3 losses - 2 TBD
Dolphins - 7 wins - 4 losses - 1 TBD

If the Pats split their last two games and Miami wins the last two, the two teams end up tied and move on to the next tie breaker.

CONFERENCE RECORD

This is assuming both teams win this Sunday and the Dolphins pick up a game on the Patriots to draw even in the last two weeks.

Pats ----- 7 wins - 5 losses
Dolphins - 8 wins - 4 losses

The Dolphins win the division!

CONCLUSION

The Pats have their proverbial destiny in their own hands. They have to win every game unless the Dolphins lose one. They can count on the Colts finishing off the Jets. But if they drop even with Miami, the Pats are cooked.

Patriots Report: Week 14 & 2009 AFC East Tie Breaker Scenarios

Simple:

Pats: 28
Panthers: 14

The Pats continue to be less than stellar, but put them in Foxboro where they are undefeated and it's a no-brainer.

2009 AFC East Tie Breaker Scenarios

Following the collapse of the Pats against a great team and a mediocre team, New England Fans need to assess the postseason scenario.

Win all four games and the Pats win the division with an outside (very outside) shot at the the number two seeding if they make up ground on four other teams and beat all the tie breaker scenarios.

A more likely scenario is the division and a resulting third or fourth seeding -- which makes no difference. New Englanders refuse to look at the Wild Card scenario while their team is still even one game ahead of the rest of the division. Red Sox fans do that, but not Patriots fans.

I think that neither the Jets nor the Dolphins are capable of going 4-0 for the rest of the season. The Jets have to play the undefeated Colts at Indianapolis. The Dolphins have to beat the Jaguars in Jacksonville. In that case, the Pats look pretty safe even at 3-1.

Still with both the Jets and the Dolphins a game back, it's possible that further Patriots losses could force a tie or even a three-way tie.

Here are the tie breaker scenarios. I am not going to analyze a situation that has any other team except the Patriots tied for first place. There are far too many variables for that analysis and I simply won't care. I also won't analyze a still possible tie with the Bills. Not yet at least.

DIVISION RECORD

Pats ----- 3 wins - 2 losses - 1 TBD at Bills
Dolphins - 4 wins - 2 losses
Jets ----- 3 wins - 3 losses

If the Pats lose to the Bills and tie the Dolphins, the Pats' season is over. But if they beat the Bills, it goes to the next tie breaker.

If the Pats lose to the Bills and tie only with the Jets for the division lead, it goes to the next tie breaker.

COMMON OPPONENTS

This is trickier. But not too tricky for me. Divisional rivals play 12 games a year against common opponents. Here are common opponents based on the Patriots record only. I won't do a Jets-Dolphins head-to-head comparison here because I simply don't care.

Pats ----- 5 wins - 3 losses - 4 TBD
Dolphins - 5 wins - 4 losses - 3 TBD
Jets ----- 4 wins - 5 losses - 3 TBD

Pats-Dolphins - The Pats are a game ahead of the Dolphins at the moment in common opponents. A tie scenario assumes that the Pats win against the Bills, but drop at least one other game to a common opponent to put them even. Besides the Bills, all three remaining Patriot games are against common opponents. Assuming the Dolphins win all four of their remaining games, the Pats have to win against the Bills and go 2-1 in the other three games to force a tie breaker.

Pats-Jets - The Pats are two games ahead of the Jets in common opponents. Assuming the Jets win all their remaining games, then a tie scenario has New England going 2-2 against common opponents.

CONFERENCE RECORD

This is where it becomes nearly impossible to outline all the scenarios, but here are Pats head to head with the Dolphins and Jets. Each NFL team plays 12 games a year within their own conference.

Pats ----- 5 wins - 4 losses - 3 TBD
Dolphins - 4 wins - 4 losses - 4 TBD
Jets ----- 5 wins - 5 losses - 2 TBD

Here the Pats are a game up on the Dolphins in the win column. Again, the Pats can afford to lose one more than the Dolphins here to remain even. The Pats also are a game ahead of the Jets in the loss column. The same rule applies, but Jets are in a slightly worse position here than the other two teams especially since one of those games is against the undefeated Indiana Colts.

STRENGTH OF VICTORY

This is the total winning percentage of all opponents. Of course, it's impossible to know with four games to go. But let me say: I DID not KNOW that!

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

Miami, NE and NY in that order. At least, I think so.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Essentially, back-to-back wins against two weak teams, the Panthers and the Bills, in the next two weeks puts the Patriots in very good shape. Couple that with a Miami loss to the Jaguars, and I may be in a position to call it by then.

Patriots Report: Week 13

It's 14-7 as I write this. I was going to predict Patriots 34 to Dolphins 10, so I am sticking to my original story. Really.

More analysis later ...