Patriots Report: Week 14 & 2009 AFC East Tie Breaker Scenarios

Simple:

Pats: 28
Panthers: 14

The Pats continue to be less than stellar, but put them in Foxboro where they are undefeated and it's a no-brainer.

2009 AFC East Tie Breaker Scenarios

Following the collapse of the Pats against a great team and a mediocre team, New England Fans need to assess the postseason scenario.

Win all four games and the Pats win the division with an outside (very outside) shot at the the number two seeding if they make up ground on four other teams and beat all the tie breaker scenarios.

A more likely scenario is the division and a resulting third or fourth seeding -- which makes no difference. New Englanders refuse to look at the Wild Card scenario while their team is still even one game ahead of the rest of the division. Red Sox fans do that, but not Patriots fans.

I think that neither the Jets nor the Dolphins are capable of going 4-0 for the rest of the season. The Jets have to play the undefeated Colts at Indianapolis. The Dolphins have to beat the Jaguars in Jacksonville. In that case, the Pats look pretty safe even at 3-1.

Still with both the Jets and the Dolphins a game back, it's possible that further Patriots losses could force a tie or even a three-way tie.

Here are the tie breaker scenarios. I am not going to analyze a situation that has any other team except the Patriots tied for first place. There are far too many variables for that analysis and I simply won't care. I also won't analyze a still possible tie with the Bills. Not yet at least.

DIVISION RECORD

Pats ----- 3 wins - 2 losses - 1 TBD at Bills
Dolphins - 4 wins - 2 losses
Jets ----- 3 wins - 3 losses

If the Pats lose to the Bills and tie the Dolphins, the Pats' season is over. But if they beat the Bills, it goes to the next tie breaker.

If the Pats lose to the Bills and tie only with the Jets for the division lead, it goes to the next tie breaker.

COMMON OPPONENTS

This is trickier. But not too tricky for me. Divisional rivals play 12 games a year against common opponents. Here are common opponents based on the Patriots record only. I won't do a Jets-Dolphins head-to-head comparison here because I simply don't care.

Pats ----- 5 wins - 3 losses - 4 TBD
Dolphins - 5 wins - 4 losses - 3 TBD
Jets ----- 4 wins - 5 losses - 3 TBD

Pats-Dolphins - The Pats are a game ahead of the Dolphins at the moment in common opponents. A tie scenario assumes that the Pats win against the Bills, but drop at least one other game to a common opponent to put them even. Besides the Bills, all three remaining Patriot games are against common opponents. Assuming the Dolphins win all four of their remaining games, the Pats have to win against the Bills and go 2-1 in the other three games to force a tie breaker.

Pats-Jets - The Pats are two games ahead of the Jets in common opponents. Assuming the Jets win all their remaining games, then a tie scenario has New England going 2-2 against common opponents.

CONFERENCE RECORD

This is where it becomes nearly impossible to outline all the scenarios, but here are Pats head to head with the Dolphins and Jets. Each NFL team plays 12 games a year within their own conference.

Pats ----- 5 wins - 4 losses - 3 TBD
Dolphins - 4 wins - 4 losses - 4 TBD
Jets ----- 5 wins - 5 losses - 2 TBD

Here the Pats are a game up on the Dolphins in the win column. Again, the Pats can afford to lose one more than the Dolphins here to remain even. The Pats also are a game ahead of the Jets in the loss column. The same rule applies, but Jets are in a slightly worse position here than the other two teams especially since one of those games is against the undefeated Indiana Colts.

STRENGTH OF VICTORY

This is the total winning percentage of all opponents. Of course, it's impossible to know with four games to go. But let me say: I DID not KNOW that!

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

Miami, NE and NY in that order. At least, I think so.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Essentially, back-to-back wins against two weak teams, the Panthers and the Bills, in the next two weeks puts the Patriots in very good shape. Couple that with a Miami loss to the Jaguars, and I may be in a position to call it by then.