Moneyball review

This is an "oddball" movie (no pun intended) in that it is based on a true story. However, because Billy Beane has created much of his own legend, it might even be hard to know what is true. It's hard to know how much to commit to when watching it. One of the last scenes in the movie has Beane being offered a ridiculous amount of money from the Boston Red Sox owner John Henry to be the new GM. He turned it down. That much is true. The irony in Boston is that the Kraft family and John Henry's group used this philosophy to build championship teams. The Red Sox later hired Bill James, the father of Sabermetrics, as a consultant and built a championship team.

Yesterday, Bill Belichek and Tom Brady just surpassed Shula and Moreno as the winningest coach-QB combo in history. That's a little of what Moneyball is about. A team has less to do with individual players and coaches as wins. You get wins from runs (or points in football) -- or keeping points from happening.

I know almost nothing about the fine details of football, but I saw in 2001 why the Patriots could beat supposedly better teams on the way to a Superbowl. Montana had Jerry Rice. Manning had Marvin Harrison. Yes, Brady went to the Superbowl throwing most of his passes to Troy Brown. Troy Brown? Bill Belichick was 42-58 as a head coach before Brady. On paper it makes no sense. The reason why they won in 2001/2002 is that they eeked out enough extra points from their special teams to win those games. But "on paper" those are the type of statistics that don't usually show up. A lot has to do with the combination of statistics with certain players on the field (and coaches) rather than individual statistics. Most of the time, the best coach is simply the guy who sticks to the winning formula long enough.

What Billy Beane did with baseball was to ignore all the usual statistics. He popularized the idea of OPS (the first time I saw that I said, What the heck is that?) -- on base plus slugging percentage. He realized that in a 162 game season, it matters more how a whole team plays rather than three or four superstars. He would substitute the average OPS of three players over a whole season to replace the OPS of one superstar. He would trade players who were popular with the fans who had high numbers in every category, but who did not walk a lot. He taught that outs were bad, steals were bad, sacrifices of any type (because they resulted in outs) were bad. He cut across the grain of a century of conventional wisdom. He took a bottom tier team to the post season and broke a record with 20 consecutive wins in 2002.

This is also exactly the reason the Red Sox and Patriots won five World Championships in the last ten years. Neither team has ever been the best team on paper (with the exception of the 2007 Pats of course) for the past ten years, but the experts often look at the wrong statistics.

Seven World Championships in 10 years!

Bruins 2011


Celtics 2008


Red Sox 2007


Patriots 2005


Red Sox 2004


Patriots 2004


Patriots 2002

Now what this means is that there is still time for EIGHT Championship teams in a decade.

Red Sox 2011?

Here's an amazing thought. In 2001, no Boston sports team had won a championship since the 1986 Celtics -- a 15 year drought!

In 2001, the Pats had never won a championship, the Celtics hadn't won since 1986, the Bruins since 1972 and the Red Sox since 1918.

Now the Patriots are the team with the longest drought. They haven't won a championship in six years. Amazing! It's changed the psyche of the Boston sports fan.

Patriots - Dolphins DirecTV commercial

I laugh every time I see this. This pretty much nails New England sports fans. Someone on YouTube pointed out that this couldn't work with the Jets because there would be vandalism charges and jail time.

Should CBS air the Tim Tebow Superbowl commercial?

This has nothing to do with Boston sports except for the fact that two Irishmen from the Boston Globe, Mike Ryan and Joe Sullivan, get the answer to the question exactly right. Another Globe story from today asks the question: "Could Tebow be a Patriot?"

Will Boston Sports Fans Determine Outcome of Senate Race?

Today's elections results may forever become known as "the slapshot heard 'round the world."

The Coakley/Brown race in Massachusetts has been heralded as the most important U.S. Senate election in recent history. The future of government run health care may hang on whether the Republicans can gain another seat that will break the Democrats' filibuster-proof super majority.

Scott Brown is not likely to become a conservative dream candidate, since he has backed a number of liberal issues in the past. But he'll instantly become one of the most well-known Senators if he wins, having the ability to work with the voting block of 41 Republicans to block Obama's far left-leaning agenda. He will likely give the Republican rebuttal to the State of the Union Address next week.

Even more notable is the role that Boston sports has played in this election. While Brown went hard after moderate, working class independents who dominate Massachusetts voters, Martha Coakley chose to dismiss her opponent's chances assuming the election was a lock once she won the Democratic primary.

Coakley bristled at the idea. Should she actually be seen "standing outside Fenway Park? In the cold? Shaking hands" of hockey fans at the annual outdoor Winter Classic Bruins-Flyers game? Then she brought in John Kerry, Bill Clinton and even Barack Obama to campaign for her. Obama promptly insulted Brown's pick-up truck that is featured in a campaign commercial designed to appeal to the working class independents.

Then, in the greatest gaffe in Massachusetts' politics since a helmuted Mike Dukakis drove a tank, Coakley criticized Scott Brown for bringing in former New York Major Rudolph Giuliani to campaign, since Rudy is, of course, "a Yankee fan."

But what about Curt Schilling's support? He's "another Yankee fan!" according to Coakley. That brought on a comical spat between Schilling and Coakley. Later, Boston College and Patriots football great Doug Flutie appeared at rallies with Schilling to show his support for Brown.

If Coakley loses, people will remember that her poll numbers nose-dived after she stupidly insulted followers of the Bruins, Red Sox and probably got Doug Flutie fans riled in the mix.

These are the "smahtest fans in America" after all. The very fact that Coakley would insult their intelligence speaks volumes about her competency to hold a Senate seat. Let's see if she can snipe at Celtics fans in the waning hours of her campaign.

Patriots 2009 Regular Season Round-up: "Why not us?"

The Patriots were statistically the best team in the AFC in the 2009 regular season.

Forget about the win / loss ratio. If we look at the Points-For / Points-Against ratio, the Pats narrowly beat out the Jets and Ravens as the best team in the AFC playoffs. The numbers bear this out.

AFC Playoff Teams / PF / PA / Ratio

New England Patriots / 427 / 285 / 1.4982

Baltimore Ravens / 391 / 261 / 1.4981

New York Jets / 348 / 236 / 1.47

San Diego Chargers / 454 / 320 / 1.42

Indianapolis Colts / 416 / 307 / 1.36

Cincinnati Bengals / 305 / 291 / 1.05

The Pats were the fifth best defensive team in the NFL

I had this conversation on the plane to Boston on Christmas day with two other Pats fans. I held out that the bottom line in determining the best defensive team is points against throughout the season. Some football purists might disagree in favor of a more complicated formula. But to me, it's just good horse sense. In baseball, a pitcher's worth is his ERA -- more so than his won / loss record. The rating of defensive half of a football team likewise ought to be determined by the number of points against. Anyone who wants to argue with that is welcome.

New England fans are usually optimists when it comes to the Patriots and Celtics and pessimists when it comes to the Bruins and Red Sox. This year, Pats fans not as sanguine as in 2007 and 2008 when they finished 16-0 and 11-5 respectively. A Pats' record of 10-6 doesn't seem like a Superbowl contender. But I disagree. With Wes Welker they were the best team in the AFC. Without him, the Pats have as good a chance as anyone.

Here are the final numbers:

Points Against

Jets - 236
Cowboys - 250
Ravens - 261
49'ers - 281
Patriots - 285

The Pats were the fifth best offensive team in the NFL


The Pats finished with the fifth best offensive numbers in the NFL and second in the AFC. There is no way we can compare this team to 2007, the greatest offensive team of all time. But one could argue too that the NFL is more homogeneous than it was two years ago. Here is how the numbers stacked up.

Points For

Saints - 510
Vikings - 470

Packers - 461
Chargers - 454
Eagles - 429
Patriots - 427

* Teams in italics are not playoff bound.
* Teams in blue are NFC teams

It's difficult to factor in the big differences in offense and defense in the AFC vs. the NFC. That is why the ratio of PF / PA is a better indicator. But for the foreseeable AFC playoff future, it looks like the Pats's home field advantage bodes well for them against the Ravens. I see it as an easy win. I'll post my numbers for all playoff games in a few days. The trip to San Diego is supposed to be the tough round 2 game that poses the biggest problem. I give the Pats a 50-50 shot against the Chargers even without Welker. Then looks like a Jets / Pats AFC championship game in Foxboro, which could be a laugher in favor of New England.

That's how I see it.

The Chargers are the team that stands in the way of a Patriots trip to Superbowl XLIV in Miami in February.

My 2009 AFC East Predictions

New England Patriots 13-3
Buffalo Bills 9-7
New York Jets 7-9
Miami Dolphins 7-9

The Actual Outcome

New England Patriots 10-6

New York Jets 9-7
Miami Dolphins 7-9
Buffalo Bills 6-10

It's obvious that the AFC East is much better than in 2007 when the Pats went 16-0. That softens the perception that the Pats are much worse. In fact, here I'll use the PF / PA effect again.

My Total PF / PA Prediction for 2009 Pats Games*

477 / 238

The Actual Outcome

427 / 285

My total PF / PA ratio is almost exactly 2 to1 strangely enough.

Even more strange is the fact that the actual outcome ended up being almost exactly 1.5 to 1.

* Note that I forgot to post a prediction in what ended up being a 59-0 win against the Titans in snowy Foxboro. That would have affected the Points For, but as it stands the effect on Points Against is null.

Final Analysis

The Patriots were wildly inconsistent this year. Given a performance reminiscent of one of their better outings, they can beat any team in the NFL. If they play just consistent with their average performance throughout the season, I have to say they have a better than even chance of making it to the Superbowl.

Welker drama in Houston

Your best offensive player has to leave the game with a knee injury in the first drive.

The Boston Globe immediately calls it a "nightmare scenario."

Oh yes, and Tom Brady has three broken ribs -- he has for several weeks. We just learned this today. Only Brady could throw for four touchdowns in the first half in last week's game with three broken ribs.

If my best player suffered a minor bruise in the first play of a meaningless game, I would take him out for the rest of the game. The predictions of the Patriots' playoff demise are premature. Even if the Welker injury is minor, Belichek will still win the award for the most second-guessed coach of the year award.

Patriots Report: Week 17

My prediction for week 17:


Pats: 21
Titans: 14

Every other line has the Titans by about eight points. The conventional wisdom is that the Pats will rest their key players and take a loss in a meaningless game.

Brady says he won't rest though and Belichek is a stranger to convention. The Pats are still looking for that team continuity. This is more than a tune-up; it's a search for that lost magic that is the domain of the "Team of the Decade."

If the Pats are to make a strong playoff run, that momentum must start right now.

Disclaimer: The score is 7-0 Titans as I post this.

Patriots Report: Week 16

The Magic Number is 1!

Look for that exclamation point to to disappear if the Pats can't clinch the division with a win at home against the Jaguars on Sunday.

The goal for the next two weeks has to be, in Tom Brady's own words, "Finding some consistency" on offense. In the five games when the offense has been stellar, the Pats have looked like the sure winners of Superbowl XLVI.

And believe it or not, New England is now tied for the fourth best defense in the NFL.

The bottom line is that despite all the fan pessimism that has resulted from four really horrible losses this season, and only five really dominant wins, the Pats are still in a position to put it all together for a strong playoff run. There isn't a team in the conference that they cannot beat if they have all the parts working.

Really.

They can do it, but all cylinders need to be firing. I look at it this way. The defense has allowed 16.27 points per game on average. However, the offense has only scored 24.3 points per game. What they need to do is put up a couple of convincing two or three touchdown victories in the final two games to generate some good momentum going into January.

But first things first. Sewing up the division should look like this.

My prediction for week 16:


Pats: 31
Jags: 14

Patriots Report: Week 15

Last week I predicted:

Pats: 28
Panthers: 14

The Result:

Pats: 20
Panthers: 10

Okay, it's not as accurate as I can sometimes be, but neither is Tom Brady, although I do like the symmetry.

I had to watch last week's game in one of those wonderfully awful British pubs we have on every block on 192 between downtown Kissimmee and Clermont. Of course, no one was watching the Dolphins-Jaguars. It wasn't even on one of the TVs. But there were about 10 other New England fans hanging on every play and occassionally glancing at New Orleans and Indy. One of the Bostonians made the brilliant remark that the Patriots are in effect "playing 'possum" until the very end of the season when they will suddenly turn on the gas and play like our mighty heroes of the unforgotten past.

And yes, we do have 'possums in New England, so this guy might know what he is talking about. We tend to call them "opossums," however, which is actually their real name. And no New Englander has ever eaten possum fritters. Believe it or not, you redneck. We also have lots of "crayfish" in our lakes and streams, but we don't eat those either. We use them for bait when fishing for large mouth bass. So if you are inside the 495 beltway, don't go talking about "smokin' some crawdads." People are liable to get the wrong idea.

The "playing 'possum" analogy is a nice thought that even I with my steely logic have succumbed to on occassion in thinking about Brady's on-and-off "comeback." Whenever I do, I have to remind myself that this is the NFL. It's not a 200 meter race where the best runner just has to keep pace and then turn it on in the final stretch. Anything can happen in December.

My Prediction for week 15:

Pats 35
Bills 9

The game against the Bills is a no-brainer. They have to win. They have to pull out all the stops. They have to win big. The defense can't turn it off toward the end. Randy Moss has to catch everything he can get his fingertips on.

The Jets play the undefeated Colts in two weeks. So there is little hope of this mediocre team winning all of their final three. So the Pats have a game to give against New York.

The biggest pitfall, I hate to say, is Miami. If the Dolphins lose on Sunday, it's over. But if both teams win, it puts the Patriots in a scenario in which dropping even with Miami means losing the division once again via tie breakers. If New England falls even with Miami by losing to the Bills, then the Pats lose the "games within the division" tie-breaker.

If they win against the Bills, they still have to finish a game ahead of Miami to win the division. Once week 15 is in the bag, New England plays Jacksonville and Houston. A loss to either Jacksonville at home in two weeks or at Houston would be a disaster.

Here's why.

DIVISION RECORD

Pats ----- 3 wins - 2 losses - 1 TBD at Bills
Dolphins - 4 wins - 2 losses

Here I am assuming both teams win this week. The Pats impove to 9-5 and the Dolphins 8-6. But that will put them even in division record at season's end.

COMMON OPPONENTS

Then look here! Last week the Pats beat Carolina and the Dolphins beat Jacksonville. Let's say both teams win again this week.

Pats ----- 7 wins - 3 losses - 2 TBD
Dolphins - 7 wins - 4 losses - 1 TBD

If the Pats split their last two games and Miami wins the last two, the two teams end up tied and move on to the next tie breaker.

CONFERENCE RECORD

This is assuming both teams win this Sunday and the Dolphins pick up a game on the Patriots to draw even in the last two weeks.

Pats ----- 7 wins - 5 losses
Dolphins - 8 wins - 4 losses

The Dolphins win the division!

CONCLUSION

The Pats have their proverbial destiny in their own hands. They have to win every game unless the Dolphins lose one. They can count on the Colts finishing off the Jets. But if they drop even with Miami, the Pats are cooked.

Patriots Report: Week 14 & 2009 AFC East Tie Breaker Scenarios

Simple:

Pats: 28
Panthers: 14

The Pats continue to be less than stellar, but put them in Foxboro where they are undefeated and it's a no-brainer.

2009 AFC East Tie Breaker Scenarios

Following the collapse of the Pats against a great team and a mediocre team, New England Fans need to assess the postseason scenario.

Win all four games and the Pats win the division with an outside (very outside) shot at the the number two seeding if they make up ground on four other teams and beat all the tie breaker scenarios.

A more likely scenario is the division and a resulting third or fourth seeding -- which makes no difference. New Englanders refuse to look at the Wild Card scenario while their team is still even one game ahead of the rest of the division. Red Sox fans do that, but not Patriots fans.

I think that neither the Jets nor the Dolphins are capable of going 4-0 for the rest of the season. The Jets have to play the undefeated Colts at Indianapolis. The Dolphins have to beat the Jaguars in Jacksonville. In that case, the Pats look pretty safe even at 3-1.

Still with both the Jets and the Dolphins a game back, it's possible that further Patriots losses could force a tie or even a three-way tie.

Here are the tie breaker scenarios. I am not going to analyze a situation that has any other team except the Patriots tied for first place. There are far too many variables for that analysis and I simply won't care. I also won't analyze a still possible tie with the Bills. Not yet at least.

DIVISION RECORD

Pats ----- 3 wins - 2 losses - 1 TBD at Bills
Dolphins - 4 wins - 2 losses
Jets ----- 3 wins - 3 losses

If the Pats lose to the Bills and tie the Dolphins, the Pats' season is over. But if they beat the Bills, it goes to the next tie breaker.

If the Pats lose to the Bills and tie only with the Jets for the division lead, it goes to the next tie breaker.

COMMON OPPONENTS

This is trickier. But not too tricky for me. Divisional rivals play 12 games a year against common opponents. Here are common opponents based on the Patriots record only. I won't do a Jets-Dolphins head-to-head comparison here because I simply don't care.

Pats ----- 5 wins - 3 losses - 4 TBD
Dolphins - 5 wins - 4 losses - 3 TBD
Jets ----- 4 wins - 5 losses - 3 TBD

Pats-Dolphins - The Pats are a game ahead of the Dolphins at the moment in common opponents. A tie scenario assumes that the Pats win against the Bills, but drop at least one other game to a common opponent to put them even. Besides the Bills, all three remaining Patriot games are against common opponents. Assuming the Dolphins win all four of their remaining games, the Pats have to win against the Bills and go 2-1 in the other three games to force a tie breaker.

Pats-Jets - The Pats are two games ahead of the Jets in common opponents. Assuming the Jets win all their remaining games, then a tie scenario has New England going 2-2 against common opponents.

CONFERENCE RECORD

This is where it becomes nearly impossible to outline all the scenarios, but here are Pats head to head with the Dolphins and Jets. Each NFL team plays 12 games a year within their own conference.

Pats ----- 5 wins - 4 losses - 3 TBD
Dolphins - 4 wins - 4 losses - 4 TBD
Jets ----- 5 wins - 5 losses - 2 TBD

Here the Pats are a game up on the Dolphins in the win column. Again, the Pats can afford to lose one more than the Dolphins here to remain even. The Pats also are a game ahead of the Jets in the loss column. The same rule applies, but Jets are in a slightly worse position here than the other two teams especially since one of those games is against the undefeated Indiana Colts.

STRENGTH OF VICTORY

This is the total winning percentage of all opponents. Of course, it's impossible to know with four games to go. But let me say: I DID not KNOW that!

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

Miami, NE and NY in that order. At least, I think so.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Essentially, back-to-back wins against two weak teams, the Panthers and the Bills, in the next two weeks puts the Patriots in very good shape. Couple that with a Miami loss to the Jaguars, and I may be in a position to call it by then.

Patriots Report: Week 13

It's 14-7 as I write this. I was going to predict Patriots 34 to Dolphins 10, so I am sticking to my original story. Really.

More analysis later ...

Patriots Report: Week 12

Last week's prediction

Pats 44
Jets 14

Final score

Pats 31
Jets 14

I thought the Pats would score 28 points prior to the second half. They scored 24. Are the Pats letting up in the second half? Are they saving themselves for the really tough opponents?

Monday Night Football has the Pats and the Saints. On paper the Saints look to be the best team in the NFL. In reality, the Saints are not as good as the Pats or the Colts. However, if they win this game, they will likely go 16-0 if they can get past Dallas.

The NFL could end up with two 16-0 teams!

Although it is obvious, I'll let my only commenter explain why a regular season mark of 16-0 is a certain kiss of death in the playoffs.

If the Pats win this game they have a shot at a bye. If they lose, they are are still looking to all but wrap-up the division the next week in Miami. It's not a meaningless game by far, but in the grand scheme of things, a loss is just one loss It doesn't mean much to either team's playoff hopes.

It's difficult to analyze how the two teams stack up. The Pats are by far the better defensive team. Only one other division leader's defense (San Diego) has performed more poorly than New Orleans.

The Saints look to be winners purely on their offensive numbers -- one that could challenge several of New England's 2007 records. But how much of this is a good team made to look like the greatest offensive team in history by their schedule?

The Patriots should win with the best defense the Saints will see all year -- second only to Indianapolis.

The odds makers are all over the map with this one. I predict the Pats by four points.

My Prediction

Pats 37
Saints 33

It's Doug Flutie Day!

Not only is New England known for inventing Thanksgiving, but it's also known for Doug Flutie.

It was 25 years ago today (November 26th, 1984) that former Boston College quarterback Doug Flutie threw the legendary Hail Mary pass to receiver Gerard Phelan (Yes, remember him? Great catch Gerard!) to give the Eagles a thrilling 47-45 last-second win over the University of Miami.



Flutie graduated from Natick High School the same year that I graduated from Framingham North. Just think, if I had actually played football in high school I could tell everyone that I played against Flutie every time the Hail Mary pass is mentioned. Too bad I didn't play football. It robs me of the opportunity to live in the shadow of a living legend.

It's only fitting though. I had no idea who Doug Flutie was until that pass. I didn't even watch the game. It would have been fun though to have been in an Irish Bar in Boston watching the last seconds of that game (as one of my roommates in college claims he in fact was).

Flutie says that a day hasn't gone by since 1984 when someone hasn't mentioned it to him at least once. Although many people think that the Hail Mary pass clinched the Heisman Trophy for Flutie, the voting was already completed before that game.

Flutie still lives in Natick where he has a special room in his house just to display his Heisman Trophy. A motion censor lights the trophy whenever anyone enters the room. I kid you not. While that might seem egomaniacal to some, you have to remember that ... well it is sort of egomaniacal, isn't it?

He went on to play backup quarterback for the Bears and the Patriots for five years (including the 1986 Bears team that beat the Patriots in the Superbowl). He left for the Canadian Football league where he, as a starting quarterback, set all kinds of records and was elected to the Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility. Finally, he ended up with the hated Buffalo Bills, but remained so popular in New England that Pats fans would cheer for him when he played in Foxborough.

Flutie led the Bills to a 10–5 record in 1999 but, in a controversial decision, was replaced by Rob Johnson for the playoffs by coach Wade Phillips. The Bills have not appeared in a playoff game since and some say this is due to the "Flutie Curse."

He moved on to the Chargers and ended his career playing for the Patriots as the back-up quarterback to Tom Brady in 2005. During Flutie's career, the New England Patriots made it to the Super Bowl four times, but Flutie was not on any of those teams. What a travesty.

Other Trivia About Flutie

In his last season with the Patriots, a December 26, 2005 game against the Jets, Flutie was sent in late in the game. The Jets also sent in their back-up quarterback, Vinny Testaverde. This was the first time in NFL history that two quarterbacks over the age of 40 competed against each other (Testaverde was 42, Flutie was 43).

In the Patriots' regular-season finale against Miami on January 1, 2006, Flutie was sent in as the back-up quarterback for a seeming conversion play. Instead, Flutie successfully drop kicked a football for an extra point, something that had not been done in a regular-season NFL game since 1941. It was his last play in the NFL. For some strange reason I am more impressed with that than with the Hail Mary pass.




Although many people assume he is a New England born Irishman, he was actually born in Maryland to Lebanese parents. They moved to Melbourne Beach, Florida when he was six. They lived there until the space program slow-down in 1976 brought the family to Natick.

He plays drums in his brother's rock band -- the Flutie Brothers Band.

He played drums in the rock group Boston's tribute to their deceased drummer Brad Delp.

For years, the traffic congestion between Shpper''s World in Framingham and the Natick Mall was horrendous. No one understood why they couldn't just connect the two parking lots. The two towns could never agree on the zoning for some weird reason. When the Natick Mall was torn down and rebuilt, they built a road, "Flutie Pass."

Patriots Report: Week 11

I predicted - Pats 28 Colts 24
Final score - Colts 35 Pats 34

There is so much to say about that game. Missed my own spread by five points, but it seems like a lot more. The loss means only that the Patriots went from having a slim chance to virtually no chance to win the number one seed in the playoffs. A win against the Colts would have necessitated the Pats picking up another game on the Colts, which I didn't see as likely. So now the Patriots' goal is to win the division by finishing 13-3, hopefully grabbing a number two seed and a resulting bye week in the playoffs. That's a scenario any fan would have gladly taken after week two's embarrassing loss to the Jets.

Accordingly, a lot of people are calling this the "revenge game." I don't think the Jets deserve that much respect. The Patriots will end the Jets postseason hopes with an easy win. The odds makers have the Pats by 10 points. No problem. In fact, triple that. The Pats by 30 points. The offense has hit its stride in the last few games. The week two loss to the Jets had Tom Brady unable to connect with Randy Moss. That doesn't look to be much of a problem anymore.

The Jets do still have a good running game and should score a couple of times. But I see New England scoring early and often. Is 28 points before the second half too optimistic? We will see. Although Brady's stats have been ridiculously amazing in the past three weeks, I think that they will mix it up a bit more and use the running game as well, especially after getting a comfortable lead.

My prediction:

Pats 44
Jets 14

Patriots Report: Week 10

Week 9 Review


I predicted - Pats 35 Dolphins 10
Final score - Pats 27 Dolphins 17

New England has outscored opponents by a combined 121-24 in the last three games!

This was a game that never seemed close even when the Dolphins were ahead by a point in the second half. One got that feeling that Brady-Moss could explode for two or three touchdowns in a row. Still my prediction was off by a touchdown in either direction. The Dolphins always seem to unveil new offensive plays when facing the Pats. This time it was the "pistol" formation, which was formerly used mainly in college games.

With the offense now on-line, the rest of the Pats 2009 season will look like the 2007 all-time record setting team. More importantly, this was a must win for Miami if they wanted to reach the playoffs. Playing in Florida later in the season won't be as much fun if the division is decided. The Pats at that point will be competing for seeding and it could be a rout.

The Patriots are now the second ranked team in defense. At the beginning of the season, conventional wisdom said that the air attack would more than make up for a questionable defense. Ironically, it has been the most consistent part of the Pats' game. Brady has put together three solid outings in a row.

The Patriots have the momentum going into this game, but with the Pats-Colts anything can happen. The Colts represent the toughest challenge of the year. The two teams are evenly matched. One could argue the Colts numbers are inflated due to the teams they have played thus far. he Pats have to finish off two undefeated teams and beat the Jets. If they go 2-1, then the rest of the season looks like gravy. Still the Colts are the best team in  the NFL on paper. The winner of this game has to be considered the Superbowl favorite.

Patriots-Colts games are always great football, they are the only two teams to have greater than a .700 winning percentage since 2001, so no matter what the outcome, this is one to be savored. It's a fitting way to enter the second half of the season. Is there really a greater rivalry in the NFL?

My prediction:

Pats - 28
Colts - 24

Patriots Report: Week 9

Week 7 Review
I predicted - Pats 35 Bucs 9
Final score - Pats 35 Bucs 7


Not enough time to write much else.

Disclosure: It's already 3-0 Dolphins as I write this.

This week:

Patriots 35
Dolphins 10

The Best Sports City in North America? - It's Boston!

New York City currently has 47 major professional sports world championships.

Boston is second with 31.

Montreal is third with 26.

Then consider that the metro area of New York is 18.8 million, while Boston's metro area is 4.4 million and Montreal's metro area is 3.8 million.

It's a testimony to which city's fans are the most supportive per capita.

This is from: http://www.nuttyaboutsports.com/best-championship-city.shtml

When considering which city can rightfully lay claim to being the best sports city in North America, New York City almost immediately pops into everyone's mind. New York sports teams have won the most championships of any city in North America (47 in all).

When you look at it a little bit closer, however, New York may not be able to rightfully claim the title "Best Sports City in North America." New York currently has, and has had throughout its history, the most sports teams of any North American city. One would expect a city with that many teams to have won a few championships over the years. When you remove the New York Yankees from the equation - yes, I know that they are the most successful sports franchise in the history of professional sports - but, for the sake of argument let's look at New York without the Yankees. Without the Yankees' 26 championships, New York's sports accomplishments look much more modest (the 21 remaining championships would rank them third on the list of most championships).

So if we were to rule out New York, who else then, could lay claim to the "Best Sports City in North America"? A case could be made for Montreal, third on the list of most championships with 26. Even more impressive is that all of their championships have been garnered in a single sport - hockey (24 by the Canadiens, and 2 more by the Montreal Maroons). But it is the one dimensional nature of their championship accomplishment, impressive though it may be, that should eliminate them from consideration.

Where, then, does that leave us? It leaves us in the Bay State in the City of Boston. Boston is second on the list of cities with the most championships with 31. More impressive is that Boston's teams have won numerous championships in all four of the major North American sports (baseball, basketball, football, and hockey). Boston's major sports teams rank at or near the top of each of their respective sports for the most championships (see below).

Boston Red Sox - 3rd with 7 World Series Championships

Boston Celtics - 1st with 16 NBA Championships

New England Patriots - 4th (tie) with 3 Super Bowl Championships

Boston Bruins - 4th (tie) with 5 Stanley Cup Championships

When you compare this to New York:

Sport ----------------- Boston ----------------- New York

Baseball -------------- Boston Red Sox - 3rd -- New York Yankees - 1st

-------------------------------------------------- New York Mets - 13th

Basketball ------------ Boston Celtics - 1st ----- New York Knicks - 7th

Football -------------- Patriots - 4th -------------New York Giants - 8th

-------------------------------------------------- New York Jets - 11th

Hockey -------------- Boston Bruins - 4th ------ New York Rangers - 6th

-------------------------------------------------- New York Islanders - 6th (tie)

The Boston team rankings range from 1st through 4th, while the New York team rankings range from 1st through 13th. Each city has a team that has the most championships in their respective sport (the Celtics and the Yankees). After that, Boston ranks 4th in football versus 8th and 11th for the Giants and Jets, and 4th in Hockey versus a tie for 6th for the Islanders and the Rangers. The average championship rank for New York's teams is over 7 while the average rank for Boston's teams is 3rd.

One final way of looking at this issue is the average number of championships per team. Boston's 4 current teams* have a collective 30 championships, or an average of 7.5 per team. New York's 7 current teams collectively have 41 championships for an average of 5.8 per team.

Clearly, both are great sports cities, but when it comes who is the "Best Sports City in North America," the answer is (drum roll please) - Boston, Massachusetts.

* Current teams refers to the number of teams in the four major sports - baseball, basketball, football, and hockey.

Patriots Report: Bye Week

In a stunning upset Bye has beaten the Patriots by a shut out. Coach Slough of team Bye said: "It is fair to say that the Patriots underestimated us. I think they were taking us for granted when the Patriots didn't field any of their starters."

Despite an uneventful first half, the tide turned in the second half when the Byes held New England to zero yards offense both on the ground and in the air. Never before in the history of the Patriots have they been held to zero yards.

Bill Belichek had this to say: "We were unable to get any spy film footage of the Byes and therefore we never knew how to prepare. It was like we didn't even show up for the game. We are shocked by this. Honestly we thought we could coast through the weekend and save some of our banged up players. Team Bye couldn't even beat a high school team. We just didn't see it coming."

Heading into next week Belichek vented his sour grapes.... "This was the worst officiated game I have ever seen. They were totally absent minded with their calls. They didn't even get the coin toss correct."

NFL commissioner Roger Goodell dismissed calls for suspected game fixing. "As far as we can tell nothing suspicious happened on the field even though Vegas bookmakers made huge payouts to Ben Bernanke."

No comments were available at press time as Mr. Bernanke's office refused to return our calls. High level un-named sources told us: "Ben is used to money from nothing. It is not unusual for him to profit in this manner."

When pressed further our source did admit that Bernie Madoff expressed severe jealousy as did Michael Astrue the Social Security Commissioner who confessed: "We have been doing transactions like this for years. It now seems that others have discovered our technique. Not the least of which are the Byes who have managed to prevail with nothing. Until now only a select few have been able to prevail with nothing. We are very concerned. They could even win the Super Bowl. Nothing can stop them now."

Patriots Report: Week 6 & 7

I didn't make any crazy predictions last week about the Pats/Titans game. It's a good thing too, because I would have come up with something like Pat 38-10.

And then how embarrassing would that have been?

The greatest shutout in post-merger NFL history -- 59-0. All that happened by the third quarter -- a record. Most points in a half -- 45-0. Most points in a quarter -- 35-0.

And on and on we could go. Too many firsts to count. In fact, this game may hold the record for the most records. It could have been a 90-0 game, if Belichek hadn't shown his well-known sensitive side.

The largest shutout in NFL history was in the 1940 NFL Championship game when the Chicago Bears defeated the Washington Redskins 73-0. If it were me, I would have gone for the record. "Why not? We are here and in uniform." That's what I would have said.

It makes up for the time I sat on a cold metal bench on New Year's Eve in 1978 and watched the Pats lose to the same team (then called the Oilers) in a lopsided divisional playoff game. Fittingly, this game was played in an October snowstorm.

So next week the Patriots participate in the annual travesty known as the London Bowl where we ugly Americans try to force our stupid sports on Londoners and whoever else who happens to be unfortunate enough to watch the Pats beat up on another excuse for a once great professional sports franchise called the Bucs.

This time they may spot the opposing team some points simply so the Brits won't think we are bloody daft.

My Prediction:

Pats 35
Bucs 9

Then it's a bye-week and then it's on to Miami!

I challenged my Miami fan friend, Barack Abdul Ali to spring for two tickets, but offered to pay for both of them plus all gas if the Dolphins won. So far, he is cowering behind an automatic email reply message.