Patriots 2009 Regular Season Round-up: "Why not us?"

The Patriots were statistically the best team in the AFC in the 2009 regular season.

Forget about the win / loss ratio. If we look at the Points-For / Points-Against ratio, the Pats narrowly beat out the Jets and Ravens as the best team in the AFC playoffs. The numbers bear this out.

AFC Playoff Teams / PF / PA / Ratio

New England Patriots / 427 / 285 / 1.4982

Baltimore Ravens / 391 / 261 / 1.4981

New York Jets / 348 / 236 / 1.47

San Diego Chargers / 454 / 320 / 1.42

Indianapolis Colts / 416 / 307 / 1.36

Cincinnati Bengals / 305 / 291 / 1.05

The Pats were the fifth best defensive team in the NFL

I had this conversation on the plane to Boston on Christmas day with two other Pats fans. I held out that the bottom line in determining the best defensive team is points against throughout the season. Some football purists might disagree in favor of a more complicated formula. But to me, it's just good horse sense. In baseball, a pitcher's worth is his ERA -- more so than his won / loss record. The rating of defensive half of a football team likewise ought to be determined by the number of points against. Anyone who wants to argue with that is welcome.

New England fans are usually optimists when it comes to the Patriots and Celtics and pessimists when it comes to the Bruins and Red Sox. This year, Pats fans not as sanguine as in 2007 and 2008 when they finished 16-0 and 11-5 respectively. A Pats' record of 10-6 doesn't seem like a Superbowl contender. But I disagree. With Wes Welker they were the best team in the AFC. Without him, the Pats have as good a chance as anyone.

Here are the final numbers:

Points Against

Jets - 236
Cowboys - 250
Ravens - 261
49'ers - 281
Patriots - 285

The Pats were the fifth best offensive team in the NFL


The Pats finished with the fifth best offensive numbers in the NFL and second in the AFC. There is no way we can compare this team to 2007, the greatest offensive team of all time. But one could argue too that the NFL is more homogeneous than it was two years ago. Here is how the numbers stacked up.

Points For

Saints - 510
Vikings - 470

Packers - 461
Chargers - 454
Eagles - 429
Patriots - 427

* Teams in italics are not playoff bound.
* Teams in blue are NFC teams

It's difficult to factor in the big differences in offense and defense in the AFC vs. the NFC. That is why the ratio of PF / PA is a better indicator. But for the foreseeable AFC playoff future, it looks like the Pats's home field advantage bodes well for them against the Ravens. I see it as an easy win. I'll post my numbers for all playoff games in a few days. The trip to San Diego is supposed to be the tough round 2 game that poses the biggest problem. I give the Pats a 50-50 shot against the Chargers even without Welker. Then looks like a Jets / Pats AFC championship game in Foxboro, which could be a laugher in favor of New England.

That's how I see it.

The Chargers are the team that stands in the way of a Patriots trip to Superbowl XLIV in Miami in February.

My 2009 AFC East Predictions

New England Patriots 13-3
Buffalo Bills 9-7
New York Jets 7-9
Miami Dolphins 7-9

The Actual Outcome

New England Patriots 10-6

New York Jets 9-7
Miami Dolphins 7-9
Buffalo Bills 6-10

It's obvious that the AFC East is much better than in 2007 when the Pats went 16-0. That softens the perception that the Pats are much worse. In fact, here I'll use the PF / PA effect again.

My Total PF / PA Prediction for 2009 Pats Games*

477 / 238

The Actual Outcome

427 / 285

My total PF / PA ratio is almost exactly 2 to1 strangely enough.

Even more strange is the fact that the actual outcome ended up being almost exactly 1.5 to 1.

* Note that I forgot to post a prediction in what ended up being a 59-0 win against the Titans in snowy Foxboro. That would have affected the Points For, but as it stands the effect on Points Against is null.

Final Analysis

The Patriots were wildly inconsistent this year. Given a performance reminiscent of one of their better outings, they can beat any team in the NFL. If they play just consistent with their average performance throughout the season, I have to say they have a better than even chance of making it to the Superbowl.