Patriots Report: Week 15

Last week I predicted:

Pats: 28
Panthers: 14

The Result:

Pats: 20
Panthers: 10

Okay, it's not as accurate as I can sometimes be, but neither is Tom Brady, although I do like the symmetry.

I had to watch last week's game in one of those wonderfully awful British pubs we have on every block on 192 between downtown Kissimmee and Clermont. Of course, no one was watching the Dolphins-Jaguars. It wasn't even on one of the TVs. But there were about 10 other New England fans hanging on every play and occassionally glancing at New Orleans and Indy. One of the Bostonians made the brilliant remark that the Patriots are in effect "playing 'possum" until the very end of the season when they will suddenly turn on the gas and play like our mighty heroes of the unforgotten past.

And yes, we do have 'possums in New England, so this guy might know what he is talking about. We tend to call them "opossums," however, which is actually their real name. And no New Englander has ever eaten possum fritters. Believe it or not, you redneck. We also have lots of "crayfish" in our lakes and streams, but we don't eat those either. We use them for bait when fishing for large mouth bass. So if you are inside the 495 beltway, don't go talking about "smokin' some crawdads." People are liable to get the wrong idea.

The "playing 'possum" analogy is a nice thought that even I with my steely logic have succumbed to on occassion in thinking about Brady's on-and-off "comeback." Whenever I do, I have to remind myself that this is the NFL. It's not a 200 meter race where the best runner just has to keep pace and then turn it on in the final stretch. Anything can happen in December.

My Prediction for week 15:

Pats 35
Bills 9

The game against the Bills is a no-brainer. They have to win. They have to pull out all the stops. They have to win big. The defense can't turn it off toward the end. Randy Moss has to catch everything he can get his fingertips on.

The Jets play the undefeated Colts in two weeks. So there is little hope of this mediocre team winning all of their final three. So the Pats have a game to give against New York.

The biggest pitfall, I hate to say, is Miami. If the Dolphins lose on Sunday, it's over. But if both teams win, it puts the Patriots in a scenario in which dropping even with Miami means losing the division once again via tie breakers. If New England falls even with Miami by losing to the Bills, then the Pats lose the "games within the division" tie-breaker.

If they win against the Bills, they still have to finish a game ahead of Miami to win the division. Once week 15 is in the bag, New England plays Jacksonville and Houston. A loss to either Jacksonville at home in two weeks or at Houston would be a disaster.

Here's why.

DIVISION RECORD

Pats ----- 3 wins - 2 losses - 1 TBD at Bills
Dolphins - 4 wins - 2 losses

Here I am assuming both teams win this week. The Pats impove to 9-5 and the Dolphins 8-6. But that will put them even in division record at season's end.

COMMON OPPONENTS

Then look here! Last week the Pats beat Carolina and the Dolphins beat Jacksonville. Let's say both teams win again this week.

Pats ----- 7 wins - 3 losses - 2 TBD
Dolphins - 7 wins - 4 losses - 1 TBD

If the Pats split their last two games and Miami wins the last two, the two teams end up tied and move on to the next tie breaker.

CONFERENCE RECORD

This is assuming both teams win this Sunday and the Dolphins pick up a game on the Patriots to draw even in the last two weeks.

Pats ----- 7 wins - 5 losses
Dolphins - 8 wins - 4 losses

The Dolphins win the division!

CONCLUSION

The Pats have their proverbial destiny in their own hands. They have to win every game unless the Dolphins lose one. They can count on the Colts finishing off the Jets. But if they drop even with Miami, the Pats are cooked.