The Patriots lost so to speak even though they finished with an 11-5 record -- something that's only happened to one other team since 1970. Most in New England predicted a collapse after Brady went down. They may have finished 16-0 once again with Tom Brady, but we will never know. All we know is that a second string quarterback did the unthinkable and they won 11 games with Matt Cassel and an injury depleted defense.
Unless the Dolphins go on to win some games in the post-season, there is no reason to rue the outcome. I leave you with Barack Abdul-Ali's brilliant analysis, which is mostly right except for the myth that I don't own a Patriots t-shirt. The Pats did better than anyone predicted -- except for a few sage experts -- as Barack points out here. In the meantime, he deserves to be excited about the Dolphins no matter what the outcome of the Raven's game in week 17.
Who knew Jay would be so right?
"11-5 that was my prediction at the beginning of the year when Brady went down." - Jay Rogers
It was uncanny. The Pats actually ended the season at 11-5. Good job, Jay!
Too bad you were wrong on your prediction for the Dolphins.
"They can't do better than 6-10 (and I'm being really generous)". - Jay Rogers
Sadly, you were wrong by 5 games. No doubt the number of sacks endured by Matt Cassel had you feeling a bit woozy this year, so I'll be nice about it.
Okay, no I won't.
The Dolphins single-handedly removed the stinkin' Jets and the Patriots from the playoffs yesterday in their masterful triumph over the stinkin NY Jets. A 2-for-1 Christmas gift for everyone in Miami. Even the Bills were thankful for the Fins this year as they didn't want to see the Pats take the AFC East title again.
Now, the Jets are in complete disarray as we own their prior quarterback who ended the season as the most accurate passer in the league and even surpassed Dan Marino's single-season accuracy rating to win a franchise record. They fired Mangini today (rightfully so). As did the Browns fire Crennel. Both were Belichick assistant coaches and got their jobs on Belichick's coat tails.
How much longer will the Pats hold onto video-gate Belichick who has done nothing since his cheatin' ways have been exposed? Hard to say. But when you look at the abysmal success his assistant coaches had as NFL head coaches, you wonder how much of the Pats prior success was Belichick's "inside information" and how much was just good coaching.
But we can all agree that there is a good chance that normalcy has returned to the AFC East this year. The Pats will slowly fade into a QB controversy and, eventually, oblivion. The Jets are falling back to their healthy 3rd place as they usually have.
And the Bills stand every chance of being a major contender next year - with the Fins too of course.
As Matt would say, "I await your pathetic sophomoric reply", but in actuality, I don't. I'm patiently awaiting next week's playoff game against the Ravens in Miami instead. I hold no illusions, but I'm hopeful.
As for Jay and his beloved Pats, for which he owns no clothing for, the good news is he can stock up this year as there could very well be bargain-bin prices on Patriots jerseys right now. Stock up, Jay. That's what I did last year when the Fins were 1-15 last year before they accomplished the greatest single-season turnaround in NFL history this year and possibly all of sports. Not counting, of course, the lame Red Sox who did a pretty good job of finally winning a championship after losing 87 years in a row.
The other good news for the Pats is that they "can rest," as Belichick said yesterday. Yes, resting ... that's what football is all about, right? Relaxing, kicking back, watching the tide roll in. Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't that the very attitude that created the situation in which Brady didn't have to practice or play in pre-season this year and which quite likely contributed to his injury??? Oh well ... no use in crying over spilt quarterbacks. The Pats have a star quartersack, er, I mean back, in Matt Cassel now so they don't need that old washed up Brady anymore anyway. Or do they? Last I heard this morning there is a chance Brady might not be well into middle of next season!
So, go ahead Jay ... vote for the Ravens next week. I won't mind. But just remember how far you've fallen when you find yourself, a purebred Bostonian, supporting the filthy Baltimore thugs. Even I would be supporting the Pats (and my beloved AFC East) if the Fins weren't in - unless of course the Jets were the division leader. I haven't lost all my marbles!
And be happy the Pats won an NFL record at least.... First team in NFL history to win 11 games and NOT make the playoffs! You can thank your lovely inner-conference record for that choke.
Have a nice off-season!
- Barack
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Patriots Report Week 15
I have to admit I was depressed by the Cowboys loss to the Ravens on Saturday night. I watched most of the game on NFL Network and had to suffer through the inept commentating. Despite the genius remarks of these pundits, Tony Romo played a great game. Had his defense not let us down, the Pats would be one win away from at least a wild card spot.
I thought this was the best chance the Pats had for the wild card. The Cowboys "would've, could've, should've" put the Ravens' post season hopes to rest about three or four times. But at this moment it is too painful to look back at that travesty. I wondered several times if this was really the NFL. That these two teams are playoff contenders is beyond me.
I predicted too that the Dolphins would commit the unlikely feat of falling to the 2-12 Kansas City Chiefs. You see, this pretender won its now 10-5 record by eking out these narrow wins over awful teams. I thought the emperor's new clothes would be exposed by the worst Chiefs team since the mythical Charlestown hockey team of the same moniker. The Fish were due for a fall to a bad team, but to no avail.
The hopes of the good guys now rested squarely on the shoulders of the 2-12 Seattle Seahawks defeating Brett Favre and "that other team from New Jersey." I wasn't too optimistic. These are the Seahawks. You know a bottom tier team when you look at its website and you can find its 2009 Cheerleader Calendar more easily than their stats or standings.
This was first time, and hopefully the last, that I "watched" a whole Jets game on NFL Game Center on the Internet. Amazingly the Jets were held to a field goal in Seattle. It almost seemed like a non-game that was over way too fast. I'll have to see the highlights to believe it. Brett Favre is supposedly good for at least 1 TD againstt a 2-12 team isn't he? Maybe it was something in the coffee?
So on to next week. I won't be presumptuous in assuming the Pats will defeat the Bills in Buffalo as a foregone conclusion. Let's just say I like the Pats' chances given the way Cassel played today -- passing for 345 yards and for three touchdowns.
But this is what it comes down to ...
There is little or no chance the Ravens are losing their last game. The Pats have to win and the Jets have to beat the Dolphins. The Pats can finish with the best record in the AFC East and take on Indy or Baltimore in the first round.
But how to predict what will happen? Obviously the Jets have to be favored. Both teams are stinking pretty bad right now. The game is in New York. The Jets are still playing to keep their hopes alive. Little justice would prevail by having one of these wannabes present the AFC East in the playoffs. And since 1990, when the league started sending six teams per conference to the playoffs, no 11-5 team has missed the post season. Simple mathematical probabilities will prevail.
So come week 17, I see Matt Cassel's Patriots peaking in time for the post season as dangerous division leaders favored to advance to the AFC Championship.
This season has been the most exciting and unlikely since 2001. Odd too, in that New England fans will be rooting for the Jets to win a game next week.
Ugghhh!
Now I know what Longfellow Deeds felt like:
Mr. Deeds:
You guys football fans? The Pats could take the conference this year. The Dolphins are overrated and the Jets are choke artists.
Helicopter pilot:
I wouldn't say that, Mr. Deeds.
Mr. Deeds:
Just Deeds. Why is that, though?
Helicopter pilot:
You own the Jets, Deeds.
Mr. Deeds:
I do? That sucks. I hope they don't play the Pats in the playoffs or I'll have to kill myself.
I thought this was the best chance the Pats had for the wild card. The Cowboys "would've, could've, should've" put the Ravens' post season hopes to rest about three or four times. But at this moment it is too painful to look back at that travesty. I wondered several times if this was really the NFL. That these two teams are playoff contenders is beyond me.
I predicted too that the Dolphins would commit the unlikely feat of falling to the 2-12 Kansas City Chiefs. You see, this pretender won its now 10-5 record by eking out these narrow wins over awful teams. I thought the emperor's new clothes would be exposed by the worst Chiefs team since the mythical Charlestown hockey team of the same moniker. The Fish were due for a fall to a bad team, but to no avail.
The hopes of the good guys now rested squarely on the shoulders of the 2-12 Seattle Seahawks defeating Brett Favre and "that other team from New Jersey." I wasn't too optimistic. These are the Seahawks. You know a bottom tier team when you look at its website and you can find its 2009 Cheerleader Calendar more easily than their stats or standings.
This was first time, and hopefully the last, that I "watched" a whole Jets game on NFL Game Center on the Internet. Amazingly the Jets were held to a field goal in Seattle. It almost seemed like a non-game that was over way too fast. I'll have to see the highlights to believe it. Brett Favre is supposedly good for at least 1 TD againstt a 2-12 team isn't he? Maybe it was something in the coffee?
So on to next week. I won't be presumptuous in assuming the Pats will defeat the Bills in Buffalo as a foregone conclusion. Let's just say I like the Pats' chances given the way Cassel played today -- passing for 345 yards and for three touchdowns.
But this is what it comes down to ...
There is little or no chance the Ravens are losing their last game. The Pats have to win and the Jets have to beat the Dolphins. The Pats can finish with the best record in the AFC East and take on Indy or Baltimore in the first round.
But how to predict what will happen? Obviously the Jets have to be favored. Both teams are stinking pretty bad right now. The game is in New York. The Jets are still playing to keep their hopes alive. Little justice would prevail by having one of these wannabes present the AFC East in the playoffs. And since 1990, when the league started sending six teams per conference to the playoffs, no 11-5 team has missed the post season. Simple mathematical probabilities will prevail.
So come week 17, I see Matt Cassel's Patriots peaking in time for the post season as dangerous division leaders favored to advance to the AFC Championship.
This season has been the most exciting and unlikely since 2001. Odd too, in that New England fans will be rooting for the Jets to win a game next week.
Ugghhh!
Now I know what Longfellow Deeds felt like:
Mr. Deeds:
You guys football fans? The Pats could take the conference this year. The Dolphins are overrated and the Jets are choke artists.
Helicopter pilot:
I wouldn't say that, Mr. Deeds.
Mr. Deeds:
Just Deeds. Why is that, though?
Helicopter pilot:
You own the Jets, Deeds.
Mr. Deeds:
I do? That sucks. I hope they don't play the Pats in the playoffs or I'll have to kill myself.
Friday, December 19, 2008
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Boston Globe: 73 percent of Pats fans think team will make playoffs
In a dramatic turnaround of hope, 73 percent of New England Patriots fans responded to a Boston Globe survey predicting the team would make the playoffs either as a wildcard team (60.6%) or winning the division outright (27.2%).
This is a dramatic turnaround from recent weeks when most fans thought the Pats had no chance. Why the reason for the change of heart?
First, the Pats have to win their remaining their remaining games. After seeing the performance of the offense in past weeks, most fans think they can beat the Cardinals at home and the Bills on the road.
Second, the Pats still need some help. Assuming the Pats finish 11-5, either the Baltimore Ravens have to lose a game, which would yield the last wilcard spot, or the Jets and the Dolphins both have go no better than 1-1 in the next two weeks.
This is a dramatic turnaround from recent weeks when most fans thought the Pats had no chance. Why the reason for the change of heart?
First, the Pats have to win their remaining their remaining games. After seeing the performance of the offense in past weeks, most fans think they can beat the Cardinals at home and the Bills on the road.
Second, the Pats still need some help. Assuming the Pats finish 11-5, either the Baltimore Ravens have to lose a game, which would yield the last wilcard spot, or the Jets and the Dolphins both have go no better than 1-1 in the next two weeks.
Here is a graphic if you want to see for yourself.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Are the Celtics too good?
There was an interesting quote by Ray Allen in the Boston Globe today:
Whatever the reason, the NBA is the now the most lopsided of the four major sports. In baseball, teams such as Tampa Bay have shown us anything is possible year to year. The race in the NFL is the most interesting it has been in years. Hockey, of course, is as unpredictable as ever with 16 teams going to the playoffs. Baseball is the only pure championship series with only six teams qualifying after 162 games. No mediocre teams make it to the postseason. The same isn't true in the other three sports.
Nothing is like the lopsided dominance of the Celtics in the NBA. Allen's quote may seem arrogant to some, but his thinking belies the fact that for the best and the worst teams, the season's outcome is determined before it starts.
You may have seen the interesting taped conversation between the great Bill Russell and Kevin Garnett in which the legend tells the new Celtics superstar that he is going to win a few championships in a Celtics' jersey. At the time, I thought it was an incredibly presumptuous prediction, but then after last year's dominant win against a favored team, the Celts look like they are going to be the perennial favorite for at least the next few years.
With a 23-2 record and a .920 winning percentage, it looks like they are on pace for the best record ever, currently held by the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls at 72-10. This is one of the most difficult team records in sports to break. But it comes a year after the Patriots broke the record for most regular season wins.
Who knows how much further it can go beyond that? The Celtics have all the right pieces and can afford to build from the bottom up while this run lasts.
Teams want to win. This team had an effect on the rest of the league. After
all the moves that Danny made over the offseason to get all the guys here and
win the championship, teams were like, "Hey, maybe we can get into the feeding
frenzy over the summer with some guys that we know can play and can bring us to
the Promised Land." It's a disappointment. It's the expectation. Most teams can
be in rebuilding mode and you got the same coach and a terrible record, but
you're building your young players. When you bring in high-dollar players and
you're in the bottom of your division, it's a big load on you.
- Ray Allen
Whatever the reason, the NBA is the now the most lopsided of the four major sports. In baseball, teams such as Tampa Bay have shown us anything is possible year to year. The race in the NFL is the most interesting it has been in years. Hockey, of course, is as unpredictable as ever with 16 teams going to the playoffs. Baseball is the only pure championship series with only six teams qualifying after 162 games. No mediocre teams make it to the postseason. The same isn't true in the other three sports.
Nothing is like the lopsided dominance of the Celtics in the NBA. Allen's quote may seem arrogant to some, but his thinking belies the fact that for the best and the worst teams, the season's outcome is determined before it starts.
You may have seen the interesting taped conversation between the great Bill Russell and Kevin Garnett in which the legend tells the new Celtics superstar that he is going to win a few championships in a Celtics' jersey. At the time, I thought it was an incredibly presumptuous prediction, but then after last year's dominant win against a favored team, the Celts look like they are going to be the perennial favorite for at least the next few years.
With a 23-2 record and a .920 winning percentage, it looks like they are on pace for the best record ever, currently held by the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls at 72-10. This is one of the most difficult team records in sports to break. But it comes a year after the Patriots broke the record for most regular season wins.
Who knows how much further it can go beyond that? The Celtics have all the right pieces and can afford to build from the bottom up while this run lasts.
Monday, December 15, 2008
Patriots playoff chances
I won't go in depth into the complicated tie-breaker scenario for the Pats. There are six teams vying for four playoff spots. Every other team in contention, the Jets, Dolphins, Colts and Ravens have better records either in the division or the conference. Assuming the Pats finish 11-5, they still need one of these teams to lose a game (or two in the Colts' case) to eke out a Wild-Card spot.
In short, the best chance the pats have is to finish 11-5, which they have a good chance of doing. the Pats' post-season hope rests on the outcome of the Cowboys-Ravens game next Saturday. If the Ravens lose in a well-matched contest, the Pats are assured a wild card spot if they finish 11-5.
Other scenarios have either the Colts losing two -- or the Jets and Dolphins losing one each -- or either the Jets or Dolphins losing two in a row, which is much more unlikely given the matchups. If your a Pats fan, the Cowboys-Ravens game could be the whole season.
In short, the best chance the pats have is to finish 11-5, which they have a good chance of doing. the Pats' post-season hope rests on the outcome of the Cowboys-Ravens game next Saturday. If the Ravens lose in a well-matched contest, the Pats are assured a wild card spot if they finish 11-5.
Other scenarios have either the Colts losing two -- or the Jets and Dolphins losing one each -- or either the Jets or Dolphins losing two in a row, which is much more unlikely given the matchups. If your a Pats fan, the Cowboys-Ravens game could be the whole season.
Friday, December 12, 2008
Can the Pats win the AFC East?
The following post is from "Sorting Out the Playoff Picture" by Sean Crowe of SportsCentral.org. He spells out a scenario/prediction that I agree with entirely. So rather that reinvent the wheel, I post a lengthy quote from his article. Of course, come week 17, we may have to eat our words.
The Patriots, Jets, and Dolphins are currently tied at 8-5.
All three teams can't run the table, as the Dolphins and Jets play each other in Week 17. If either the Dolphins or Jets run the table, they win the AFC East.
The Patriots, even if they win out, lose the tiebreakers with both teams.
The Dolphins play the 49ers at home, then the Chiefs and Jets on the road. The Jets have the Bills at home, Seattle on the road, then finish with Miami at home.
If both the Jets and Dolphins falter, the Patriots need the beat the Raiders on the road, the Cardinals at home, then the Bills in Buffalo.
The Dolphins and Jets both have easy schedules. The AFC East will almost certainly come down to week 17. The winner of the Jets/Dolphins game will likely win the AFC East. The Patriots, as it stands right now, will likely be the odd man out.
Assuming that plays out, the AFC playoffs would look like this:
1) Titans (bye)
2) Steelers (bye)
3) Broncos
4) Dolphins or Jets
5) Colts
6) Ravens
Of course, this entire scenario is preposterous. Were this to happen, the 11-win Patriots and the 10-win Jets or Dolphins would both miss the playoffs. That has never happened before. Ever. In NFL history.
A 10-win team could miss the playoffs. An 11-win team might miss the playoffs. But both an 11 and 10-win team missing the playoffs in the same season in the same conference?
Not likely.
The 1985 Denver Broncos won 11 games and missed the playoffs. Since then, every 11-win team has made the playoffs. As a matter of fact, only four 10-win teams have missed the playoffs since 1990.
My point is, there's no way the AFC is going to play out the way the schedule would suggest it's going to. Something strange is going to happen. It always does.
With that in mind, here's how I see it playing out.
The Ravens will go 2-1 down the stretch. More than enough to lock up the final wild card spot.
The Jets are playing terrible right now. They also have yet to win a game on the West Coast this season. They have to travel to Seattle the week before their huge showdown against the Dolphins. It's a classic "Brett Favre throws a bad pick and we lose a game we never should have lost" game for the Jets.
The Dolphins have the same scenario on the road against the Chiefs. Kansas City is a tough place to play, even against the two-win 2008 Chiefs. The Dolphins will lose, tying them with the Jets at 9-6 going into the final week of the season.
The Patriots will beat the Raiders. They'll beat the Cardinals, mostly because the game's in Foxboro.
The AFC East will come down to this: if the Patriots beat the Bills, they win the AFC East. If they lose, then winner of the Jets/Dolphins game wins the AFC East.
And if we've learned anything these past few years, it's that the Patriots don't lose big games in December.
And the revised standings will look something like this:
1) Titans (bye)
2) Steelers (bye)
3) Broncos
4) Patriots
5) Colts
6) Ravens
Which means, once again, we'll get Patriots/Colts in the playoffs.
Think I'm wrong? Post your AFC predictions in the comments.
The Patriots, Jets, and Dolphins are currently tied at 8-5.
All three teams can't run the table, as the Dolphins and Jets play each other in Week 17. If either the Dolphins or Jets run the table, they win the AFC East.
The Patriots, even if they win out, lose the tiebreakers with both teams.
The Dolphins play the 49ers at home, then the Chiefs and Jets on the road. The Jets have the Bills at home, Seattle on the road, then finish with Miami at home.
If both the Jets and Dolphins falter, the Patriots need the beat the Raiders on the road, the Cardinals at home, then the Bills in Buffalo.
The Dolphins and Jets both have easy schedules. The AFC East will almost certainly come down to week 17. The winner of the Jets/Dolphins game will likely win the AFC East. The Patriots, as it stands right now, will likely be the odd man out.
Assuming that plays out, the AFC playoffs would look like this:
1) Titans (bye)
2) Steelers (bye)
3) Broncos
4) Dolphins or Jets
5) Colts
6) Ravens
Of course, this entire scenario is preposterous. Were this to happen, the 11-win Patriots and the 10-win Jets or Dolphins would both miss the playoffs. That has never happened before. Ever. In NFL history.
A 10-win team could miss the playoffs. An 11-win team might miss the playoffs. But both an 11 and 10-win team missing the playoffs in the same season in the same conference?
Not likely.
The 1985 Denver Broncos won 11 games and missed the playoffs. Since then, every 11-win team has made the playoffs. As a matter of fact, only four 10-win teams have missed the playoffs since 1990.
My point is, there's no way the AFC is going to play out the way the schedule would suggest it's going to. Something strange is going to happen. It always does.
With that in mind, here's how I see it playing out.
The Ravens will go 2-1 down the stretch. More than enough to lock up the final wild card spot.
The Jets are playing terrible right now. They also have yet to win a game on the West Coast this season. They have to travel to Seattle the week before their huge showdown against the Dolphins. It's a classic "Brett Favre throws a bad pick and we lose a game we never should have lost" game for the Jets.
The Dolphins have the same scenario on the road against the Chiefs. Kansas City is a tough place to play, even against the two-win 2008 Chiefs. The Dolphins will lose, tying them with the Jets at 9-6 going into the final week of the season.
The Patriots will beat the Raiders. They'll beat the Cardinals, mostly because the game's in Foxboro.
The AFC East will come down to this: if the Patriots beat the Bills, they win the AFC East. If they lose, then winner of the Jets/Dolphins game wins the AFC East.
And if we've learned anything these past few years, it's that the Patriots don't lose big games in December.
And the revised standings will look something like this:
1) Titans (bye)
2) Steelers (bye)
3) Broncos
4) Patriots
5) Colts
6) Ravens
Which means, once again, we'll get Patriots/Colts in the playoffs.
Think I'm wrong? Post your AFC predictions in the comments.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
The Bruins are wicked awesome this year too!
Here's another tidbit that has slipped under our noses ever so unexpectedly. After narrowly making the playoffs in 2008 and losing in an exciting and valiantly played series with Montreal (Boston's most hated rival and hockey's reigning dynasty) -- the Bruins have quietly gone 19-4-4 -- the best record in the Eastern conference and second in the NHL only to the San Jose Sharks. (Yes, I know hockey has changed a lot since the 1970s Stanley Cup Championship team!)
Yes, Boston's erstwhile two most reliable teams to make the playoffs are ramping it up again!
"It's the Broons and the Celts in 2009!"
Yet always the eternal pessimists, Boston fans are just waiting for the other shoe to drop. And one can not help counting the "if onlys." An "ought've" tackle in the fourth quarter of the Superbowl, one more win against Tampa Bay in the ALCS, a healthy Brady in 2008 ... and what could be?
But is the Golden Era of Boston Sports over? No, not by a long shot!
Yes, Boston's erstwhile two most reliable teams to make the playoffs are ramping it up again!
"It's the Broons and the Celts in 2009!"
Yet always the eternal pessimists, Boston fans are just waiting for the other shoe to drop. And one can not help counting the "if onlys." An "ought've" tackle in the fourth quarter of the Superbowl, one more win against Tampa Bay in the ALCS, a healthy Brady in 2008 ... and what could be?
But is the Golden Era of Boston Sports over? No, not by a long shot!
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