Can the Pats win the AFC East?

The following post is from "Sorting Out the Playoff Picture" by Sean Crowe of SportsCentral.org. He spells out a scenario/prediction that I agree with entirely. So rather that reinvent the wheel, I post a lengthy quote from his article. Of course, come week 17, we may have to eat our words.

The Patriots, Jets, and Dolphins are currently tied at 8-5.

All three teams can't run the table, as the Dolphins and Jets play each other in Week 17. If either the Dolphins or Jets run the table, they win the AFC East.

The Patriots, even if they win out, lose the tiebreakers with both teams.

The Dolphins play the 49ers at home, then the Chiefs and Jets on the road. The Jets have the Bills at home, Seattle on the road, then finish with Miami at home.

If both the Jets and Dolphins falter, the Patriots need the beat the Raiders on the road, the Cardinals at home, then the Bills in Buffalo.

The Dolphins and Jets both have easy schedules. The AFC East will almost certainly come down to week 17. The winner of the Jets/Dolphins game will likely win the AFC East. The Patriots, as it stands right now, will likely be the odd man out.

Assuming that plays out, the AFC playoffs would look like this:

1) Titans (bye)
2) Steelers (bye)
3) Broncos
4) Dolphins or Jets
5) Colts
6) Ravens

Of course, this entire scenario is preposterous. Were this to happen, the 11-win Patriots and the 10-win Jets or Dolphins would both miss the playoffs. That has never happened before. Ever. In NFL history.

A 10-win team could miss the playoffs. An 11-win team might miss the playoffs. But both an 11 and 10-win team missing the playoffs in the same season in the same conference?

Not likely.

The 1985 Denver Broncos won 11 games and missed the playoffs. Since then, every 11-win team has made the playoffs. As a matter of fact, only four 10-win teams have missed the playoffs since 1990.

My point is, there's no way the AFC is going to play out the way the schedule would suggest it's going to. Something strange is going to happen. It always does.

With that in mind, here's how I see it playing out.

The Ravens will go 2-1 down the stretch. More than enough to lock up the final wild card spot.

The Jets are playing terrible right now. They also have yet to win a game on the West Coast this season. They have to travel to Seattle the week before their huge showdown against the Dolphins. It's a classic "Brett Favre throws a bad pick and we lose a game we never should have lost" game for the Jets.

The Dolphins have the same scenario on the road against the Chiefs. Kansas City is a tough place to play, even against the two-win 2008 Chiefs. The Dolphins will lose, tying them with the Jets at 9-6 going into the final week of the season.

The Patriots will beat the Raiders. They'll beat the Cardinals, mostly because the game's in Foxboro.

The AFC East will come down to this: if the Patriots beat the Bills, they win the AFC East. If they lose, then winner of the Jets/Dolphins game wins the AFC East.

And if we've learned anything these past few years, it's that the Patriots don't lose big games in December.

And the revised standings will look something like this:

1) Titans (bye)
2) Steelers (bye)
3) Broncos
4) Patriots
5) Colts
6) Ravens

Which means, once again, we'll get Patriots/Colts in the playoffs.

Think I'm wrong? Post your AFC predictions in the comments.