I have to admit I was depressed by the Cowboys loss to the Ravens on Saturday night. I watched most of the game on NFL Network and had to suffer through the inept commentating. Despite the genius remarks of these pundits, Tony Romo played a great game. Had his defense not let us down, the Pats would be one win away from at least a wild card spot.
I thought this was the best chance the Pats had for the wild card. The Cowboys "would've, could've, should've" put the Ravens' post season hopes to rest about three or four times. But at this moment it is too painful to look back at that travesty. I wondered several times if this was really the NFL. That these two teams are playoff contenders is beyond me.
I predicted too that the Dolphins would commit the unlikely feat of falling to the 2-12 Kansas City Chiefs. You see, this pretender won its now 10-5 record by eking out these narrow wins over awful teams. I thought the emperor's new clothes would be exposed by the worst Chiefs team since the mythical Charlestown hockey team of the same moniker. The Fish were due for a fall to a bad team, but to no avail.
The hopes of the good guys now rested squarely on the shoulders of the 2-12 Seattle Seahawks defeating Brett Favre and "that other team from New Jersey." I wasn't too optimistic. These are the Seahawks. You know a bottom tier team when you look at its website and you can find its 2009 Cheerleader Calendar more easily than their stats or standings.
This was first time, and hopefully the last, that I "watched" a whole Jets game on NFL Game Center on the Internet. Amazingly the Jets were held to a field goal in Seattle. It almost seemed like a non-game that was over way too fast. I'll have to see the highlights to believe it. Brett Favre is supposedly good for at least 1 TD againstt a 2-12 team isn't he? Maybe it was something in the coffee?
So on to next week. I won't be presumptuous in assuming the Pats will defeat the Bills in Buffalo as a foregone conclusion. Let's just say I like the Pats' chances given the way Cassel played today -- passing for 345 yards and for three touchdowns.
But this is what it comes down to ...
There is little or no chance the Ravens are losing their last game. The Pats have to win and the Jets have to beat the Dolphins. The Pats can finish with the best record in the AFC East and take on Indy or Baltimore in the first round.
But how to predict what will happen? Obviously the Jets have to be favored. Both teams are stinking pretty bad right now. The game is in New York. The Jets are still playing to keep their hopes alive. Little justice would prevail by having one of these wannabes present the AFC East in the playoffs. And since 1990, when the league started sending six teams per conference to the playoffs, no 11-5 team has missed the post season. Simple mathematical probabilities will prevail.
So come week 17, I see Matt Cassel's Patriots peaking in time for the post season as dangerous division leaders favored to advance to the AFC Championship.
This season has been the most exciting and unlikely since 2001. Odd too, in that New England fans will be rooting for the Jets to win a game next week.
Ugghhh!
Now I know what Longfellow Deeds felt like:
Mr. Deeds:
You guys football fans? The Pats could take the conference this year. The Dolphins are overrated and the Jets are choke artists.
Helicopter pilot:
I wouldn't say that, Mr. Deeds.
Mr. Deeds:
Just Deeds. Why is that, though?
Helicopter pilot:
You own the Jets, Deeds.
Mr. Deeds:
I do? That sucks. I hope they don't play the Pats in the playoffs or I'll have to kill myself.
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Dolphins are pretenders? Interesting. No 1-15 team has ever won 10 games the following season. Plus, aren't you the one who predicted the Fins could do no better than 7-9 this year. You're wrong by at least 3 games, and possibly four.
ReplyDeleteBut regardless, I'm just glad we'll be having at least one post-season without the Patriots. But, realistically, you should be kind of happy. At least with the fall from grace, there won't be a quarterback controversy in New England next year. If Brady is healthy, he'll start. Last time he touched the ball, they went 16-0. Cassell managed to keep them competitive, but being the most sacked QB in the league makes it hard to give the Pats a fighting chance.
The one line that rings true from Mr. Deeds: "The Dolphins are overrated and the Jets are choke artists."
ReplyDeleteSo true it's scary.
That being said, the Dolphins obviously are vastly improved. Any team that goes 11-5 deserves to win a playoff spot and that's what they need to do.
However, no team in the AFC East has conclusively proved that they are anything but a lower tier team. The Jets and Dolphins had the luxury of playing several last place teams due to their last place finish last year.
One could argue that the Patriots having an identical record and a tougher schedule are the best team. That would be more obvious had the Pats beaten the Dolphins and the Jets twice, but of course they lost a game to each.
If you look at final scores, there is only one game the Pats came close to losing, but three games they should have won. In two of these games Cassel turned in a stellar performance to no avail. They have blown out teams like the Broncos, Steelers and Cardinals. They could very easily be 13-2 at this point.
But the only thing that would prove their superiority is a run of wins in the playoffs.
As of today, Cassel is the #11 QB in the NFL with a rating of 89.2. He's above guys like Eli Manning and Favre. This is guy who never started a game since high school. He tied the Pats 2007 record of mot 40-point games in a season (4). He's a phenomenon who has exceeded all expectations.
The Pats big weakness this year has been the number of injuries to the defense.
That is why I am not sure why you are harping on the "most sacked" statistic. It's not a reliable QB stat. Passer rating is. When you break down 2008's most sacked stat, you see some good names near the top and the bottom.
A horrible team with a good QB is going to be sacked least because he will hold the ball less often and have fewer chances to be sacked. A bad QB with a good team around him is going to run the ball more often. And so on.
John Elway is the most sacked QB of all time and he is a living legend.
It's one of those misleading sports stats, similar to baseball's two most misleading stats:
1. Most outfielder assists (it means that the opposition runs against your arm most often).
2. Most struck out (the all time list is a parade of leading home run hitters).
But I think you already know this and are just playing with me.