Star Wars Part VII - How The East Was Bought

It is a dark day for the Republic ...

The Dark Lord's son, Hank Steinvader

has opened the vast treasury of the Empire

and has refitted his fleet with twice as much

fire-power as the Republican forces. But is Evil

ever truly a match for the light side of the Force?

A beleaguered Republican army has vowed to fight!

With his courageous pilots, Beckett and Lester, the last

Jedi, Daisuke, leads his faithful droids, P3DR0A and UUU! -

and two ancient yet resilient Wookie clones - Papi and Knuckleball.

Before a last desperate assault against Death Star X, our brave heroes

must defeat a formidable legion on the distant smog planet of the Angels ...

Payrolls and Championships

The two tier team payroll structure in baseball is a reality for teams who want to compete for a playoff spot in October. This year, there is a new category in the Yankees who still top the salary cap of $200,000 despite the recession. The bloated Evil Empire has just bought its 10th division title in 12 years despite failing to sell-out its overpriced box seats in the new Yankee Stadium, "the house that Hank built."

The stark fact remains that teams who want to make the playoffs must shell out at least $100,000 in player salaries, especially in the American League. The two notable exceptions this year are the Rockies and the Cardinals, two National League teams that reached the World Series three times in the past five years, the Rockies in 2007, and the Cardinals losing in 2004, but winning it all in 2005.

American League Playoff Teams

Eastern Division - New York Yankees

Central Division - Detroit Tigers or Minnesota Twins

Western Division - Los Angeles Angels

Wild Card - Boston Red Sox

National League Playoff Teams

Eastern Division - Philadelphia Phillies

Central Division - St. Louis Cardinals

Western Division - Los Angeles Dodgers

Wild Card - Colorado Rockies

2009 MLB payrolls

Yankees $201,449,289
Mets $135,773,988
Cubs $135,050,000
Red Sox $122,696,000
Tigers $115,085,145
Angels $113,709,000
Phillies $113,004,048
Astros $102,996,415
Dodgers $100,458,101
Mariners $98,904,167
Braves $96,726,167
White Sox $96,068,500
Cardinals $88,528,411
Giants $82,161,450
Indians $81,625,567
Blue Jays $80,993,657
Brewers $79,857,502
Rockies $75,201,000
D-backs $73,571,667
Reds $70,968,500
Royals $70,908,333
Rangers $68,646,023
Orioles $67,101,667
Twins $65,299,267
Rays $63,313,035
Athletics $62,310,000
Nationals $59,328,000
Pirates $48,743,000
Padres $42,796,700
Marlins $36,814,000

Patriots Report: Week 3

Not much time to do this one.

First, last week's prediction.

I predicted - Pats 28 Jets 14
Final score - Pats 9 Jets 16

Just three more touchdowns and I would have been right on! Amazing! Just one touchdown would have been nice.

THIS WEEK

Patriots 28
Falcons 14

I know you are thinking, "Hey wait a minute! That's the same score you predicted last week!"

The conventional wisdom is the Pats by 4 points. That is not going to happen in Foxboro. There is something to prove. The game could be described as a match-up of underachievers vs. overachievers.

Offensively, the Patriots look to many to be a shambles. I see this as the game where Tom Brady steps up with a little more quickness and precision. Four touchdowns easily.

Defensively, a lot has been made of the four major departures. I don't really see much of a difference in terms of stats. The Jets scored just one touchdown last week.

The most obvious adjustment they should make is running the ball a bit more. That ought to exploit an Atlanta team that is now without defensive tackle Jeria Perry.

The Pats haven't lost back-to-back games in 41 weeks. New England has won 15 straight regular-season games against NFC opponents going back to 2005. I tried to find the NFL record on that one to no avail. No doubt football expert Barack Abdul Ali will know that one off the top of his head. Barack!?

Here's an interesting trivia tidbit: According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the 2007 Patriots became the first American pro sports team to open a season with 18 straight victories in more than 100 years, dating back to baseball's Union Association in 1884.

"Yeah, but can Brady throw under pressure?"

I always like it when someone takes a professional athlete who is statistically the best in his position and says, "Yeah, but can he do this!"

There's an old Woody Allen movie in which the female lead is raving about some handsome, strong, perfect hero of a guy. Then wimpy-looking Woody asks, "But can he do this?" while doing a contorted dance movement that no one would ever need to do unless he had to.

That scene has been replayed in my mind countless times when after I wax poetic about the Patriots great achievements of this decade and then my friend Barack Abdul-Ali pulls out the meaningless sack statistic. Sacks are meaningful in any given game, just as interceptions, turnovers, quarterback hurries and third down conversions are meaningful. However, sacks are meaningful only if you can calculate ratios and outcomes, not simply raw numbers. The most sacked lifetime statistics belong to the greatest quarterbacks in history simply because they pass more often.

To put it more succinctly: Despite all of the hype, the defensive sack statistic on its own is a meaningless number, and only takes on real meaning when you put it into the context of pass attempts.

"Can he pass under pressure?" is another one. If a quarterback can always pass under pressure, it wouldn't be much pressure to speak of would it? It also ignores the ability of a quarterback to stand and throw more effectively in the pocket as if that is somehow a lesser achievement.

It's like saying that Ted Williams couldn't hit balls out of the strike zone or that Larry Bird couldn't slam dunk.

"The greatest passer in the game can't pass under pressure."

It's nonsense!

Sometimes I think these things are thrown at me just to see if I am paying attention.

What matters with Brady are the statistics at this point in his career, his winning percentage, the total number of games won, and the number of Conference Championships and Superbowl rings.

Two bright spots to today's game ...

You could just sum it up today's game saying the Jets played better defense and better offense. And just barely if you look at the game stats. It's a tough loss in a game that the good guys were favored to win, so that doesn't look good on the surface. It was due to Brady missing a lot of times when he normally connects a lot of times. But there are two bright spots.

1. Brady isn't going to have any more games this year without a single touchdown.

So with this one out of their system, it's off to the races! Just like last year when I said Matt Cassell was "going to be just fine" after he lost a few games -- (Oh great Barack Abdul-Ali, keeper of the archive, you can look that one up!) -- I am going to go way out on a limb here and say that Brady is going to be back to form really soon and we'll start seeing a few of those five to eight touchdown games again.

2. The Pats' defense, thought to be the weakest point of a solid team, also looked good.

Pat's fans are going to panic in the meantime. Although disappointing that Brady couldn't throw just one touchdown pass to tie the game -- like everyone was sure he would -- it isn't a concern in the grand scheme of the 14 games to come. It's just an anomaly.

Patriots Report: Week 2

LAST WEEK

I need to explain what happened in last week's prediction.

I predicted - Pats 38 Bills 21
Final score - Pats 25 Bills 24

I was off by two touchdowns. However, the Patriots were in the red zone twice and didn't score, which is something they rarely failed to do against Buffalo in the recent past, so the score easily could have been higher.

I was trying to decide if Tom Brady was just rusty in the first 57 minutes or if the Bills have better defense this year. In all, I think Buffalo is an improved team -- though one that New England could have beaten handily if Brady were in mid-season form. I am sticking with my prediction that the Bills will finish second and will have an outside shot at the wild card.

THIS WEEK

The Jets are underdogs on their own turf. Their response? "Let's embarrass them!" Bob Ryan has a fun commentary on the border wars below.

The official line is Pats by 4 points and a total of 45 points.

Four points? Give me a break! I think the point total is about accurate, but it will be the Pats by two touchdowns. With the cobwebs blown off, it should be an entertaining passing show for Brady as always.

Patriots 28
Jets 14

Patriots Report: Week 1

This is a hard one, but I'll go out on a limb. Patriots put 28 quick points on the board and sit Brady the second half. He is listed on the DL with a bad shoulder after all. More of a concern in the first few weeks than the knee. Bills come back to score three times in the second half. Once during garbage time. Pats fans panic over "shoddy defense." At the end of the day, Pats are the only undefeated team in the AFC East.

PATS - 38
BILLS - 21

Dan Marino on Tom Brady

"I’ve been in that position before, having to come off injuries, and I believe he’s going to come out smoking, I really do believe it. He’s going to want to prove something, and I don’t care what happened in the preseason, the preseason is overrated. When he comes out there for the first game, he’ll be ready and rolling."

Patriots Report: 2009/2010 AFC East Predictions

In the last two years, I correctly predicted the exact number of games the Patriots would win in the regular season. If I were a gambling man, I could be a millionaire by now.

I annoyed Dolphins and Bills fans by sending them a "Weekly Patriots Report" (which was often about the Celtics, Bruins and Red Sox as well) proclaiming the just and rightful superiority of all sports New England. I went against all conventional wisdom and predicted the Pats would go undefeated in the regular season in 2007 (of course I said that in 2006 as well). I also claimed the Giants are rightfully the "New Jersey Giants" because they are the only team in the world (with the exception of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) that has the audacity not to name themselves after where they play. And now I humbly have to admit that I didn't see them or the hapless Dolphins coming.

This year is going to be different. If February to December 2008 was Paradise Lost, 2009/2010 will be Paradise Restored. Mark it down. My public record for the regular season is impeccable up to this point. I began this blog for this very reason. Without the few friends who received my weekly email report, there would be no one to confirm my uncanny accuracy. If only I had started this blog two years ago, I might have gathered quite a following by now.

But if you are a gambler, don't listen to anything I say. I can't be perfect forever.

Or so the theory goes.

2009/2010 AFC East Predictions

People think the AFC East is a pretty strong division, but the results last year were skewed by two losses of the Patriots to New York and Miami. This season, the schedule is tougher for the Jets and the Dolphins, but easier for the Patriots. Each team in the AFC East plays four very tough teams in the NFC South and the AFC South. I see these as almost sure losses for every team in the AFC East except the Pats.

New England 13-3
The Pats will better be two games better than last year's 11-5 mark. In fact, I am tempted to put them at 16-0 again, but realism tells me that even the best team is going to lose a few. There is a likely chance that they will post similar offensive numbers as 2007/08. The big question is their defense. But barring injuries, they should be considered a lock for the post-season.

Buffalo 9-7
I see Buffalo as under-performing last season mainly due to injuries late in the season. They'll take three of six games within their own division and will manage to win five more somewhere else. And they'll have a shot at the Wild Card. Whoo Hoo!

Miami 7-9
Ironically, their Achilles' heel is going to be their unexpected success of last year. After finishing last in 2007, the Dolphins played two last place teams in 2008. It's also telling that they eked out narrow wins in several games against truly bad teams. This year, they will lose big against two allotted first place opponents. They also will drop both games to the Pats who will be hyped up for revenge. Everyone has Miami as the outside threat to win the AFC East. But with the uncertain quarterback situation, I think I am being generous to predict only 9 losses.

New York 7-9
Sadly, the Jets handed the Dolphins the division in the last game against Miami last season. When they realized they were mathematically eliminated, they turned a game they still had a shot to win into a joke. I don't believe in karma in sports, but I am making an exception here.

Patriots Schedule Schedule 2009

I'll make a prediction about the first game later this week. Buffalo at home should be a blow-out. But by how much? I'll tell you later. Then week by week, I'll give a final score prediction. For now, I've marked the four tough games I think they could lose in red. I think they'll win at least one of these and have no problem with the rest of their schedule. As I wrote above, these are four very tough teams. But then again, the Pats will be favored in at least three of these games because they play at home.

Something bothers me about the away game against Houston at the very end. If the Pats have their seeding all wrapped up by that date, it could mean a game to start their secondary.

Week 1 -- 9/14 -- vs. Buf
Week 2 -- 9/20 -- @ NYJ
Week 3 -- 9/27 -- vs. Atl
Week 4 -- 10/4 -- vs. Bal
Week 5 -- 10/11 -- @ Den
Week 6 -- 10/18 -- vs. Ten
Week 7 -- 10/25 -- @ TB
Week 8 -- Bye Week
Week 9 -- 11/8 -- vs. Mia
10 -- 11/15 @ Ind
11 -- 11/22 -- vs. NYJ
12 -- 11/30 -- @ NO
13 -- 12/6 -- @ Mia
14 -- 12/13 -- vs. Car
15 -- 12/20 -- @ Buf
16 -- 12/27 -- vs. Jac
17 -- 1/3 -- @ Hou

New England Patriots favored to win Superbowl LXIV

Odds makers have been saying since the second week of February that the Pats are the odds on favorites to win Superbowl LXIV.

Several "firsts" will occur.

Miami will become the first metro-area in the United States to have hosted 10 Superbowls.

This will be the first Super Bowl telecast solely digitally.

This will be the first Superbowl to use four different Roman numerals.

I am sure there are many more records and "firsts" that will be relevant to the Patriots team, but I will post them as we get into this promising season.

(I haven't posted for a while, but with the Red Sox in playoff contention, the Pats, Celts and Broons all poised for playoff runs, I'll need to get back to writing this secondary blog with a little more seriousness. Around World Series time, I'll write a review of Lost Son of Havana and prove once and for all why it is a travesty that Luis Tiant is not in the Hall of Fame.)



Oh yeah, I almost forgot. Here are the odds:

New England Patriots 8/1

Dallas Cowboys 9/1

New York Giants 10/1

Pittsburgh Steelers 10/1

Indianapolis Colts 12/1

San Diego Chargers 12/1

Baltimore Ravens 14/1

Tennessee Titans 16/1

Carolina Panthers 18/1

Philadelphia Eagles 18/1

New Orleans Saints 20/1

Atlanta Falcons 25/1

Denver Broncos 25/1

Green Bay Packers 25/1

Jacksonville Jaguars 25/1

Minnesota Vikings 25/1

New York Jets 25/1

Arizona Cardinals 30/1

Chicago Bears 30/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30/1

Buffalo Bills 35/1

Houston Texans 35/1

Miami Dolphins 35/1

Washington Redskins 35/1

Seattle Seahawks 50/1

Cleveland Browns 55/1

Cincinnati Bengals 60/1

San Francisco 49ers 60/1

Oakland Raiders 75/1

St. Louis Rams 75/1

Detroit Lions 100/1

Kansas City Chiefs 100/1